The Financial Noose Tightens

seekingalpha2023-02-08

DKosig The US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is used by monetary policymakers to gauge credit conditions. Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending ...

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Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4576319-financial-noose-tightens\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"513500","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4576319-financial-noose-tightens","article_id":"2309517214","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1435226184/image_1435226184.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309517214","pubTimestamp":1675866600,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"DKosig The US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is used by moneta","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"金融绞索收紧了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPY":0.72,"MS":0.72,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"DKosig The US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is used by monetary policymakers to gauge credit conditions. Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending standards on commercial loans to small, large, and middle-market firms (blue bars below since 1990, courtesy of The Daily Shot). This indicator has traditionally led US corporate defaults by three months (light blue below) and suggests rising payment defaults from here. Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Already (as shown below) through the end of January, large corporate bankruptcies (companies with more than $50 million in debt) have spiked the most since the 2008 financial crisis. Bloomberg Coming into 2023, forward S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth has turned negative for the fifth time since 2000 (shown below in yellow, courtesy of ISABELNET.com), and the downtrend is forecast to continue (dotted line). Stock prices have always followed EPS lower (S&P 500 in blue), with the bulk of bear market losses happening after the earnings trend crosses from positive to negative (black lines below). FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research For all the people talking about low unemployment rates being bullish for economic growth and equity markets, the truth is that the unemployment rate (lower line below since 1950) is the most lagging of indicators and has always been lowest at the start of recessions (grey bars below, aka the end of each economic expansion phase). Stock valuations (S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is the top line below) typically tumble during recessions as the unemployment rate spikes. Author Today, the most historically reliable leading indicators suggest a near certainty of recession within the next 12 months (US 3m-10-year curve is at 100%, far right bar below). The riskiest assets, meanwhile, like junk bonds (HY credit circled below), most commodities (copper below) and stocks, remain in denial, still broadly over-valued. Bloomberg Highly leveraged financial markets have been trained to hang hope on endless bailouts from central banks. But the economy is the big dog that wags the tail of spending, capital investment, jobs, revenue, and ultimately earnings, not central banks. Moreover, today the US Fed is still tightening financial conditions with monthly QT and possibly more rate hikes. When they move to loosen credit conditions again, it will take many months for the easing efforts to disseminate. A lot of distressed selling is due to occur before then. Disclosure: No positions  Original Post  Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2309517214"}