成功抄底腾讯，基金经理自述底部加仓心路历程

第一财经2023-02-06

2022年10月25日至今，腾讯控股股价涨幅超95%。在2022年四季度，腾讯控股无疑是市场中“最靓的仔”。通联数据显示，新增持仓腾讯控股的基金数量在去年四季度达175只，持仓市值增长达212.42亿元。两项数据均让其他个股难以望其项背。贵州茅台和宁德时代虽仍是公募机构前两大重仓股，但去年四季度持股数量相较三季度分别减少392.89万股和1757.46万股。去年大部分时间，腾讯控股股价表现“跌跌...

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嘞撸虎7
2023-02-06
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bottom","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14dd67ff51c0fde4d76fc8bf3050ca7","symbols_score_info":{"00700":1},"content_text":"2022年10月25日至今，腾讯控股股价涨幅超95%。在2022年四季度，腾讯控股无疑是市场中“最靓的仔”。通联数据显示，新增持仓腾讯控股的基金数量在去年四季度达175只，持仓市值增长达212.42亿元。两项数据均让其他个股难以望其项背。贵州茅台和宁德时代虽仍是公募机构前两大重仓股，但去年四季度持股数量相较三季度分别减少392.89万股和1757.46万股。去年大部分时间，腾讯控股股价表现“跌跌不休”，在四季度初一度跌破200港元/股，其中10月25日达到最低点188.63港元/股。也就是在该时间段内，包括段永平在内的多名投资人开启“抄底”腾讯之旅。2022年10月25日至今，腾讯控股股价涨幅超95%。一名抄底成功的基金经理详细讲述了他底部加仓腾讯的心路历程，其中既有他面对市场持续下跌时的恐慌，也有他抄底成功后对于机会的理性分析。“确定性不如茅台但机会更多”该基金经理交易记录如下：2022年7月18日，卖出茅台10%仓位，当日买入腾讯，均价320港元/股；9月5日，以4.56元/股卖出邮储银行7%仓位，9月7日买入腾讯，均价303港元/股；10月12日，卖出同仁堂国药4.5%仓位，当日买入腾讯，均价为249港元/股。单看以上三笔交易，该基金经理约加仓腾讯21.5%仓位，加仓成本约在280~300港元/股左右。由于整体资金体量有限，所以他只能卖出茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药，买入腾讯。这波加仓前，上述基金经理经过研究，持有茅台、邮储银行、同仁堂国药的仓位比例均在5%~10%之间。而在充分对比分析腾讯、茅台、邮储银行和同仁堂国药未来3~5年的发展，尤其是分析这几家公司未来3~5年产生的可自由分配的净利润规模以后，结合公司当前市值，他认为腾讯的预期收益会比其他几家公司更高。以茅台为例，上述基金经理表示，5~10年的确定性，是它最大的价值和魅力之一。对于5~10年甚至更长周期的资金来说，如果能在较低估值时持有茅台，长期收益的确定性和稳定性还是非常好的。从当前时点往回看，茅台的较高收益已经被许多坚守的投资者证明。从这个时点往后看，绝大部分公司5~10年的利润确定性，不如茅台更清晰。所以，上述基金经理认为，茅台唯一的缺点是，因为确定性强，所以真正能让投资者看到的安全边际的机会较少。与之相反，正因为腾讯业务较综合，游戏、广告等对绝大部分非从业者研究难度较高，反而容易出现较为情绪化的非理性判断，从而有可能出现较大的安全边际的机会。股价下跌时的恐慌当然，即使是坚定持续加仓腾讯的投资者，面对跌跌不休的股价，内心也很难做到完全笃定。2022年10月24日，腾讯股价到达阶段性低点之际，上述基金经理也表达了他的担忧。“腾讯股价400港元/股以上的时候，我们还会冷静下来给腾讯算算账，比如投资资产价值5000亿~10000亿元，经营性利润能在800亿~1300亿元。当股价来到400港元/股以下，很多朋友就会问，版号会不会影响游戏的利润，微信会不会因为各种原因被取代等。总之，传言更多，确凿的东西很少。版号的确发放得不多了，但是腾讯按照正常节奏也还有，只是没有在管控前多了。”上述基金经理说道。“以前大家还愿意给支付、云等业务一点估值，现在这部分估值基本被市场忽略了，股价210港元/股的时候，连5000亿元的投资资产也被忽略了，毕竟很多投资资产不直接产生经营性现金流，而且随着美联储加息，整个市场资产价格在下降，短期内这5000亿元资产的变现能力也可能的确比较低。”他当时表示。除了理性分析腾讯股价下跌的原因，在股价到达低点后，由于基金亏损严重，这名基金经理也认为：“即使我们能计算企业的价值，能以低估的安全边际的价格买入，也左右不了市场上其他因素，诸如美联储加息、参与者情绪恐慌等。同时，必须认识到，即使很认真地做企业估值，我们的研究依然是片面的，很难有认知全面的投资决策。”投资者乐观程度和股价息息相关好在之后腾讯股价迅速反弹。去年12月初，当腾讯股价达到310港元/股时，该基金经理分析道，公司本身没有太大变化，毕竟降本增效砍掉一些业务一直在发生，该变现的视频号在变现，游戏版号该获得也正常获得了。据他观察，变化的还是市场参与者的信心与情绪。在股价的不同阶段，投资者对腾讯的投资资产价值、利润增速等都有不同判断和预期。“当股价到达400港元/股时，对公司利润增速的预期可能就给到20%以上了，股价500港元/股，就要给30%以上的利润增速预期。”上述基金经理说道。“毕竟这个想象力一扩大，放在估值和现金流折现的excel数据表里，未来的价值一下就扩大很多。与其认真地给腾讯估值，倒不如先安抚投资者情绪。”这名基金经理总结道。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9955430803,"gmtCreate":1675652467802,"gmtModify":1676539937830,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955430803","repostId":2309628804,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":38,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":9,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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