ChatGPT Sparked an AI Craze. How to Cut Through the Hype

marketwatch2023-02-13

It has been more than 70 years since the English computer scientist Alan Turing wrote a landmark paper laying out the Turing Test for assessing whether machines can think.It turns out that a better ...

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吉慶
2023-02-13
吉慶
Have fun with A.I Invention.
Slee49
2023-02-13
Slee49
Ok
kong1509
2023-02-13
kong1509
Ok
kong1509
2023-02-13
kong1509
Ok
kong1509
2023-02-13
kong1509
Ok
Prosperity88
2023-02-13
Prosperity88
Ok

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How to Cut Through the Hype\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-13 11:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/chatgpt-ai-invest-8aff5248?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It has been more than 70 years since the English computer scientist Alan Turing wrote a landmark paper laying out the Turing Test for assessing whether machines can think.It turns out that a better ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/chatgpt-ai-invest-8aff5248?mod=newsviewer_click\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4023","symbol_name":"应用软件","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/chatgpt-ai-invest-8aff5248?mod=newsviewer_click","article_id":"2310672034","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2310672034","pubTimestamp":1676258937,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"mwatch_stock","name":"Market Watch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"It has been more than 70 years since the English computer scientist Alan Turing wrote a landmark pap","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"translate_title":"ChatGPT引发了AI热潮。如何避开炒作","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":1},"content_text":"It has been more than 70 years since the English computer scientist Alan Turing wrote a landmark paper laying out the Turing Test for assessing whether machines can think.It turns out that a better question is whether they can sell advertising.Over the past two months, Wall Street has become preoccupied with ChatGPT, the now very popular chatbot from start-up OpenAI. ChatGPT launched on Nov. 30 as a free service, and the world has been dazzled by its ability to answer questions and create original materials, generating everything from letters and resumes to computer code and Shakespearean-style sonnets. ChatGPT reached more than 100 million users in January, hitting that milestone even faster than TikTok.The viral success has spurred questions across Wall Street about how tech titans would respond.  Microsoft, which made an initial investment in OpenAI in 2019, recently agreed to boost its stake by $10 billion, spurring speculation about how the software giant would fold so-called generative artificial intelligence into its products.We got the answer this past week. On Tuesday, Microsoft unveiled a new version of its Bing search engine, infused with natural-language capability from OpenAI. The implications were market-shaking, mostly for Google parent Alphabet, which could see its dominance in internet search challenged for the first time in decades.“AI will fundamentally change every software category, starting with the largest category of all—search,” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said this past week.A day before Microsoft’s announcement, Google unveiled its own AI-based chatbot, called Bard. The company also intends to add generative AI functionality to its own core search engine. This past Wednesday, Alphabet hosted a low-key search-related event in Paris to show off AI-related updates to maps, image search, and language translation. But the market came away uninspired.Some observers noted a small error in one of the Bard search examples, which had said that the first photograph of an exoplanet was taken by the Webb space telescope. That isn’t accurate. Also noted by many: While Microsoft CEO Nadella led the Bing launch, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai didn’t participate in Google’s Paris event. It was, one fund manager said, a Bard bust.Analysts and investors spent the rest of the week debating a once impossible idea: that a newly energized Bing, which rolled out in 2009, could shift the balance of power in the internet search market.Google currently controls 93% of the search market, versus just 3% for Bing, according to Statcounter. Google, as a result, has near-total domination of search-related advertising. The company is currently fighting a pair of Justice Department lawsuits charging that the company’s search and advertising businesses violate federal antitrust law. The first suit, filed in 2020, focuses specifically on search. It goes to trial later this year. Just a few weeks ago, the government filed a second case, this time related to the online advertising market. Investors appear to be less worried about the litigation, though, than they are about the potential that Google might lose some of its search prowess to an AI-powered version of Bing.AI’s Long HistoryThe idea of creating a search engine that works with natural language has been around for decades; it was the goal of search engine Ask Jeeves, founded in 1996, which morphed into Ask.com and is now part of internet holding company IAC(IAC).“Ask Jeeves is a provider of natural-language question-answering services on the internet for consumers and companies, establishing a new way to interact with the World Wide Web,” the company said in the prospectus for its 1999 initial public offering.Ask Jeeves couldn’t quite deliver, undermined by the early days of internet infrastructure. The company never threatened Google. But computing has changed dramatically over the past 25 years—Microsoft, Google, and others benefit from far more powerful processors and algorithms, new techniques in AI and machine learning, and the vast reach and capabilities of cloud computing.The New AI PortfolioThe arrival of ChatGPT has investors looking for ways to invest in AI. Here are some of the key players.Company / TickerMarket ValueYTD ChangeCommentON THE FRONT LINESMicrosoft / MSFT$1.96 trillion9.9%Bing deal with OpenAI shook up the search market.Alphabet / GOOGL$1.227.7Is adding AI to Search, but faces new threat in Bing.THE ARMS DEALERSNvidia / NVDA$549 billion52.9%Its graphics processors are used in many AI applications.Adobe / ADBE17211.7Creative-software giant sees boost from generative AI.Advanced Micro Devices / AMD13428.5Launched new AI-focused chip at CES.IBM / IBM121-5.1Remember Watson? IBM is still innovating in AI apps.THE SPECULATIVE BETSC3.ai / AI$2.5 billion101%Enterprise AI firm launched ChatGPT-based search app.SoundHound AI / SOUN962 million126Its AI-based voice software is used in cars and restaurants.BigBear.ai Holdings / BBAI682682Makes AI-based analytics, mostly for DoD and spy agencies.BuzzFeed / BZFD235145News site announced plans to post content created by ChatGPT.Source: BloombergThe most important innovation is the development of generative AI built on large language models, algorithms that can summarize, translate, predict, and generate text and other content based on massive sets of data.The technology has given Microsoft—at long last—an opportunity to become relevant in the search market.On a conference call with analysts following the Bing press event, Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood estimated that search advertising accounts for 40% of the $500 billion digital ad market, or about $200 billion. Most of that goes to Alphabet, which reported $163 billion in search advertising last year, roughly 60% of the company’s overall revenue. Microsoft doesn’t break out Bing’s ad revenue, but if you assume it monetizes search at a comparable rate to Google, you’d get single-digit billions.On the Microsoft call, Philippe Ockenden, the CFO for its Windows, Devices, and Search business, pointed out that “for every one point of share gain in the search advertising market, it’s a $2 billion revenue opportunity for our advertising business.”And that’s what makes Alphabet investors nervous. The stock fell 12% in the days following Microsoft’s announcement, shedding about $160 billion in market value. Alphabet trades at roughly four times next year’s expected sales, so the market’s math suggests $40 billion of high-margin revenue flipping to Bing from Google.In short, Wall Street watched the Bing demonstration, listened to the Google event, and concluded that Google finally has a real rival in search.Unlike the typical pattern in tech disruption, this isn’t a threat from a feisty start-up. Google is coming under attack from an emboldened version of the world’s largest software company.And there is a related problem: While Google is busy fending off Bing, the addition of new AI capabilities could boost the company’s search-related costs while eating into the number of queries that can support ads. “The bigger issue and fear here for Alphabet investors is the potential for rising [capital expenditures] and compute intensity associated with this new vector of search capability,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Brad Erickson wrote in a research note.Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak estimates that natural-language queries could be five times more expensive for Google to complete than under its current search model. For every 10% of Google’s search queries that switch to language models, Nowak concludes that the company’s operating expenses increase by $1.2 billion. If 50% of queries end up using natural language, Alphabet’s costs would increase by $6 billion, Nowak calculates, slashing pretax earnings by 6%.The Speculative BetsUntil this past week, most of the AI action was taking place outside the realm of Big Tech, with investors scrambling to find more direct ways to play the theme. The frenzy has driven up prices of small-cap stocks in a way that feels similar to other recent Wall Street manias, from cryptocurrencies and 3-D printing to fake meat and cannabis.C3.ai, a provider of AI software tools for enterprise applications, has surged 101% this year, aided by the company’s plans to offer a search interface for its software that includes technology from both OpenAI and Google.BuzzFeed shares have rallied 145% this year on news that it plans to use ChatGPT to create content for its website.SoundHound AI, which this past week announced a voice-activated generative AI application for automotive and other end markets, has more than tripled since the ChatGPT launch. BigBear.ai Holdings, which makes AI-based analytical tools for U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, has more than quintupled over the same span. Both SoundHound and BigBear have taken advantage of the new interest in their shares by selling more stock.Investors should be wary. Work on AI software has been happening for decades. The technology is complex and resource-intensive. In Alphabet’s case, the launch of Bard is part of a yearslong effort. The company bought the London-based AI software company DeepMind in 2014, for a reported $500 million-plus. Google has been including AI and machine learning in many software products for more than two decades. AI shows up in Google Translate, in the company’s core search service, in Google Lens visual search, in Google Maps, and in Gmail, among other places.“AI is the most profound technology we are working on today,” Alphabet’s Pichai wrote in his blog post announcing Bard. “It’s critical that we bring experiences rooted in these models to the world in a bold and responsible way,” he added.That’s a pretty obvious dig at ChatGPT, which has come under attack for not always delivering accurate information—and for creating opportunities for students of all ages to bypass the time-honored tradition of writing papers and taking tests.The AI PortfolioFor investors, there are other AI plays to consider that don’t involve the risk of speculative small-caps. IBM cites AI as one of the company’s two main priorities, along with hybrid cloud software. Remember when the IBM Watson mainframe took on human contestants in Jeopardy? That was in 2010. Big Blue has no intention to start a search engine or create consumer-facing chat apps, but the company is pushing to make artificial intelligence and machine learning ubiquitous elements of enterprise computing.Sriram Raghavan, an IBM vice president who runs AI research across the company’s research labs, says the company has been developing “foundation models,” an approach that applies AI across industry-specific applications. In effect, IBM is applying the same kind of technology used to create large-language models found in chatbots to other realms, like writing code, analyzing geospatial data, molecular discovery, and business automation.The complexity of AI will also boost demand for cloud-computing hardware, and the chips that power them. David Readerman, who runs a Bay Area hedge fund called Endurance Capital Partners, thinks          Nvidia        (         NVDA       ) is the best AI play—his guess is that 75% of AI workloads will be on servers using Nvidia’s graphics processors.The AI trend should also benefit          Advanced Micro Devices        (         AMD       ). In a keynote address at the CES trade show in January, AMD CEO Lisa Su stood in front of a large screen that declared “AI is the defining megatrend in technology.”“AI has been around for quite some time,” Su said in an interview with Barron’s last month, “but we’re at an inflection point, touching all of our technologies, from chips for consumer devices up to the largest chips we build for data centers. You need AI capability in every one of those devices.”Adobe, which dominates the market for creativity tools like InDesign, Photoshop, and Illustrator, sees the trend toward generative AI—which includes images as well as text—expanding its market as more people become creators. “We’re in a golden age of content creation, and generative AI will only accelerate that,” Adobe CFO Dan Durn recently told Barron’s.Meanwhile, Facebook parent Meta Platforms has promised to roll out generative AI tools of its own later this year.“AI is the foundation of our discovery engine and our ads business, and we also think it’s going to enable many new products and additional transformations within our apps,” Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “Generative AI is an extremely exciting new area…and one of my goals for Meta is to build on our research to become a leader in generative AI in addition to our leading work in recommendation AI.”But that all looks small in comparison to the suddenly competitive market for internet search.“Bing is better than Google search,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria wrote in a research note this past week—words few on Wall Street likely ever expected to hear.Luria reiterated his Buy rating on Microsoft stock while boosting his target price to $325, from $280, suggesting upside of 25% from Microsoft’s recent close. “We believe consumers will be impressed,” he wrote after Bing’s recent demonstrations. “[T]he added capabilities made possible by the OpenAI integration make these tools considerably more useful, and we’re impressed by the sleek integration.” He sees a potential for “permanent share shift” in search.Longtime internet analyst Mark Mahaney, now at Evecore ISI, maintains his Outperform rating on Alphabet shares, but nonetheless concedes that the search market has entered a new phase. “At the margin, there is no question that Microsoft’s aggressive move into Generative AI and its cadence of product development has presented a real risk to Google’s market position,” he recently wrote.The AI frenzy comes at a notable time for tech companies, which saw their stocks tumble in 2022. Growth has slowed, the market for IPOs has all but disappeared, and regulatory scrutiny is mounting. 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