Can Palantir Be Profitable In 2023?

Seeking Alpha2023-02-23

SummaryPalantir’s top-line growth has decelerated in recent quarters, but the company is showing good cost control.Lower stock-based compensation is key to achieving GAAP profitability over the coming...

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Comments

Cedric77
2023-02-24
Cedric77
Abstracted from Wallet Investor-As of 2023 February 23, Thursday current price of PLTR stock is 8.360$ and our data indicates that the asset price has been in a downtrend for the past 1 year (or since its inception). Palantir Technologies Inc - Class A stock price has been showing a declining tendency so we believe that similar market segments were not very popular in the given period. Our site uses a custom algorithm based on Deep Learning that helps our users to decide if PLTR could be a bad portfolio addition. These predictions take several variables into account such as volume changes, price changes, market cycles, similar stocks. Future price of the stock is predicted at 0$ (-100% ) after a year according to our prediction system. This means that if you invested $100 now, your curr
- Caydron:
  ok
- Williamw:
  Ok
- CharWF:
  good
- YP:
  K
- CXl:
  Good
GggSlimeR
2023-02-23
GggSlimeR
Thanks & Do not like my comment
Nick K
2023-02-23
Nick K
Ok
Tanyl
2023-02-23
Tanyl
Buy call on PLTR
Deonc
2023-02-23
Deonc
ok
Deonc
2023-02-23
Deonc
ok

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Despite this backdrop, its shares continue to trade at relatively undemanding multiples.As I’ve covered in previous articles, I’m bullish on Palantir over the long term as the company continues to execute well on its growth strategy, namely by expanding its sales force, which is gradually leading to a higher customer base.While in the short term this strategy has a negative impact on its bottom-line, as revenue growth is slowing down and cost growth remains quite high, but over the long term this strategy should lead to strong revenue growth when economic conditions improve.Despite this backdrop, Palantir was able to report a positive GAAP net income in the past quarter, a remarkable achievement, and has guided tohave a profitable year in 2023, while previously it was expected to reach breakeven by 2025.Achieving GAAP profitability is a key factor, in my opinion, to justify a higher valuation over the medium term, as Palantir would evolve its business profile from a ‘speculative’ company to a profitable one. This is more important for its investment case than short-term cycles, and therefore for long-term investors is a key reason to remain invested in Palantir.Therefore, in this article I analyze Palantir’s fundamentals to see if its claim of achieving profitability on a GAAP basis during 2023 has some merit, or if management is using this expectation to distract investors from its short-term growth slowdown.Profitability AnalysisIn Q4 2022, Palantir increased revenue by 18% YoY to $509 million, which was in-line with expectations, but its GAAP EPS of $0.01 was 42% above street estimates, as shown in the next graph. This strong earnings beat was a major reason for a positive share price reaction, with its shares up by more than 20% following its earnings announcement.Earnings surprise (Bloomberg)While its profitability improvement was quite good, and bodes well for business prospects ahead, Palantir’s revenue growth was clearly below the company’s medium-term goal of growing revenue by about 30% annually. In 2022, Palantir’s revenue was $1.9 billion, up by 24% YoY, a clear slowdown compared to 41% YoY in 2021.Despite not being able to grow its revenue at its annual target, Palantir was able to increase its customer count to 367 at the end of 2022, an increase of 55% YoY, boding well for future revenue growth as potential higher customer engagement can lead to higher revenue in the future.Its U.S. business generated some $1.2 billion in revenue, up by 32% YoY, representing about 63% of total revenue. U.S. commercial revenue was a particular bright spot, up by 67% YoY to $335 million. On the other hand, international markets were softer, explaining its overall growth slowdown in recent quarters. Its net dollar retention was 115%, also slightly lower than in previous years, but still at a good level showing that Palantir is able to increase average revenue per existing customer on a recurring basis, which is a positive sign regarding the sustainability of its business model.Higher engagement within its existing customers and a recurring profile of customer gains, are strong supports for revenue growth in the coming years, even though, according to analysts’ estimates, its growth is expected to be smaller compared to its recent history.Indeed, revenue should be $2.2 billion in 2023 (+15.7% YoY), $2.64 billion in 2024 (+19.7% YoY), and reach close to $3.2 billion by 2025 (+21% YoY). This is much lower than Palantir’s previous guidance for about $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which has considerably been revised downwards as the company’s growth has been below previous expectations over the past few quarters.Revenue (Author's calculations and Bloomberg)To maintain positive top-line momentum, Palantir is likely to continue to hiresalespeople, which has been its major growth strategy in its commercial business over the past couple of years. Especially in international markets, Palantir seems to have plenty of growth opportunities over the next few years, as its software penetration is still quite low.While other technology companies have more recently put a freeze on hirings or announced headcount cuts, Palantir’s strategy has not changed and continues to invest in business growth, an approach that hurt its short term earnings, but clearly shows that management has a long-term mentality running this business.This is leading to higher operating expenses related to sales and marketing, which are required to grow its business. Not surprisingly, slower revenue growth combined with higher expenses led to an operating loss of $18 million in the last quarter, while its adjusted operating income (excluding stock-based compensation) was $114 million (vs. $124 million in Q4 2021).Despite reporting an operating loss in Q4, Palantir reported a GAAP net income of nearly $31 million, which is a bit misleading because this is justified by a $44 million gain in ‘other income’ related to the acquisition of Palantir’s joint-venture in Japan. Therefore, Palantir was not profitable in operating terms during the last quarter, which is the main metric investors should care about.Nevertheless, Palantir has guided for GAAP profitability during 2023 based on its operating performance, many years ahead of previously expected.Considering its guidance for revenue to be between $2.18-$2.23 billion, and a stable gross margin of around 80%, its gross profit should be around $1.75 billion. Regarding expenses, Palantir’s operating expenses were $1.66 billion in 2022, including stock-based compensation. This means that, if expenses were flat during 2023, Palantir would be profitable on a GAAP basis, which means that it is largely at the company’s management control to be profitable in 2023.However, it is likely that expenses will continue to increase, as Palantir continues to invest in business growth and general expenses increase due to the inflationary environment. Having said that, during the past year, Palantir’s operating expenses only increased by 2.8% YoY, showing very good cost control. This was possible due to lower stock-based compensation, which decreased from $778 million in 2021, to $565 million in 2022.According to Bloomberg data, stock-based compensation is expected to be $511 million in 2023 (-9.5% YoY), decreasing its weight on total revenue to 23% in 2023, a much lower level than in previous years (50% in 2021 and close to 30% in 2022). Therefore, lower stock-based compensation is a key factor for Palantir to reach GAAP profitability ahead of the expected timeframe, something that seems possible to achieve this year.Stock-based compensation (Bloomberg)Nevertheless, even if Palantir achieves GAAP profitability in 2023, it will be a relatively small number this year, but it will represent a great milestone for the company and a very positive sign that its business model works and can be profitable in a sustainable way over the long term.ConclusionWhile Palantir’s growth has clearly slowed down in recent quarters, it continues to report strong customer gains and is improving markedly its profitability. It is likely to report GAAP profits well ahead of expectations due to good cost control, showing that the business is improving its fundamentals and the company’s business strategy is now turning from a ‘growth’ phase to a profitable one.This backdrop should support a higher valuation in the future, something that doesn’t seem to be priced into its shares. After a strong de-rating since the middle of 2021, Palantir has traded at much lower multiples in recent months, as investors penalized growth stocks in general. As can be seen in the next graph, Palantir’s current EV/revenue multiple is 6.6x, while its historical average over the past year is 7.4x and considerably lower than its historical average over the past couple of years (15x).Valuation (Bloomberg)This means that Palantir’s current valuation seems to be somewhat undemanding, as the company has improved its fundamentals during a tough economic period and is closer to GAAP profitability than it was some months ago. Thus, Palantir remains a good play in the big data investment theme, and long-term investors should continue to buy at current levels.This article is written by The Outsider for reference only. Please note the risks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9957853225,"gmtCreate":1677170092668,"gmtModify":1677170097727,"author":{"id":"3575196385895354","authorId":"3575196385895354","authorIdStr":"3575196385895354","name":"Cedric77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5ee082b05004f20d3486afedee30814","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575196385895354"},"htmlText":"Abstracted from Wallet Investor-As of 2023 February 23, Thursday current price of PLTR stock is 8.360$ and our data indicates that the asset price has been in a downtrend for the past 1 year (or since its inception). Palantir Technologies Inc - Class A stock price has been showing a declining tendency so we believe that similar market segments were not very popular in the given period. Our site uses a custom algorithm based on Deep Learning that helps our users to decide if PLTR could be a bad portfolio addition. These predictions take several variables into account such as volume changes, price changes, market cycles, similar stocks. Future price of the stock is predicted at 0$ (-100% ) after a year according to our prediction system. This means that if you invested $100 now, your curr","listText":"Abstracted from Wallet Investor-As of 2023 February 23, Thursday current price of PLTR stock is 8.360$ and our data indicates that the asset price has been in a downtrend for the past 1 year (or since its inception). Palantir Technologies Inc - Class A stock price has been showing a declining tendency so we believe that similar market segments were not very popular in the given period. Our site uses a custom algorithm based on Deep Learning that helps our users to decide if PLTR could be a bad portfolio addition. These predictions take several variables into account such as volume changes, price changes, market cycles, similar stocks. Future price of the stock is predicted at 0$ (-100% ) after a year according to our prediction system. This means that if you invested $100 now, your curr","text":"Abstracted from Wallet Investor-As of 2023 February 23, Thursday current price of PLTR stock is 8.360$ and our data indicates that the asset price has been in a downtrend for the past 1 year (or since its inception). Palantir Technologies Inc - Class A stock price has been showing a declining tendency so we believe that similar market segments were not very popular in the given period. Our site uses a custom algorithm based on Deep Learning that helps our users to decide if PLTR could be a bad portfolio addition. These predictions take several variables into account such as volume changes, price changes, market cycles, similar stocks. Future price of the stock is predicted at 0$ (-100% ) after a year according to our prediction system. This means that if you invested $100 now, your curr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957853225","repostId":2313077681,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105866006,"gmtCreate":1677170577975,"gmtModify":1677170581528,"authorId":3577258181360086,"author":{"id":3577258181360086,"authorId":3577258181360086,"name":"Caydron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04231ea65b6a07c125cc1deaf560bfbc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9957853225,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"},{"id":105866004,"gmtCreate":1677170571085,"gmtModify":1677170574443,"authorId":3572240910775763,"author":{"id":3572240910775763,"authorId":3572240910775763,"name":"Williamw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecafced5a6c16b176940098e09cf69b6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9957853225,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Ok</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Ok</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Ok</span>"},{"id":105865998,"gmtCreate":1677170539802,"gmtModify":1677170543097,"authorId":3582633338719689,"author":{"id":3582633338719689,"authorId":3582633338719689,"name":"CharWF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480b91cd8f3c49bc36c742b17b0ae054","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9957853225,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>good</u>","text":"<u>good</u>","html":"<u>good</u>"},{"id":105865989,"gmtCreate":1677170431516,"gmtModify":1677170434834,"authorId":4103519086861870,"author":{"id":4103519086861870,"authorId":4103519086861870,"name":"YP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9957853225,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>"},{"id":105865987,"gmtCreate":1677170424702,"gmtModify":1677170428021,"authorId":3552012959606076,"author":{"id":3552012959606076,"authorId":3552012959606076,"name":"CXl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9ca03768046e937a7bd1502c9f857c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9957853225,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Good</u>","text":"<u>Good</u>","html":"<u>Good</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957825451,"gmtCreate":1677166999274,"gmtModify":1677167006155,"author":{"id":"4093058604760480","authorId":"4093058604760480","authorIdStr":"4093058604760480","name":"GggSlimeR","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b805c8472adab6d9418f36452434a56","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4093058604760480"},"htmlText":"Thanks &amp; Do not like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks &amp; Do not like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Thanks & Do not like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957825451","repostId":2313077681,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957864531,"gmtCreate":1677163406424,"gmtModify":1677163408911,"author":{"id":"3563768699347075","authorId":"3563768699347075","authorIdStr":"3563768699347075","name":"Nick K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cdd576e8a9ce5b3cfb67256b491e3f35","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563768699347075"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957864531","repostId":2313077681,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957814852,"gmtCreate":1677156560377,"gmtModify":1677156563830,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","authorIdStr":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4087109808120260"},"htmlText":"Buy call on PLTR","listText":"Buy call on PLTR","text":"Buy call on PLTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957814852","repostId":2313077681,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957815600,"gmtCreate":1677156032900,"gmtModify":1677156036539,"author":{"id":"3569316529855154","authorId":"3569316529855154","authorIdStr":"3569316529855154","name":"Deonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aa45dd2eb58357f6477dcfb99d1415","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569316529855154"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957815600","repostId":2313077681,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957815113,"gmtCreate":1677155989733,"gmtModify":1677155993000,"author":{"id":"3569316529855154","authorId":"3569316529855154","authorIdStr":"3569316529855154","name":"Deonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aa45dd2eb58357f6477dcfb99d1415","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569316529855154"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957815113","repostId":2313077681,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":68,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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