摩根士丹利大空头“翻多”：近期美股反弹还有空间

华尔街见闻2023-03-07

华尔街大空头、摩根士丹利首席美股策略分析师Michael Wilson在3月6日周一表示，美股将在短期内持续反弹，但中长期来看，他依然坚持自己的观点，即由于上市公司收益的下滑，美股尚未跌到底。他进一步认为，美股的熊市将在本月卷土重来。从技术上来看，Wilson指出，标准普尔500指数上周在200日移动均线处的反弹，这是一个广泛监测的指数相对于当前价格动能的技术指标。他认为，该线的反弹表明这一趋势...

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2023-03-07
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Wilson在3月6日周一表示，美股将在短期内持续反弹，但中长期来看，他依然坚持自己的观点，即由于上市公司收益的下滑，美股尚未跌到底。他进一步认为，美股的熊市将在本月卷土重来。从技术上来看，Wilson指出，标准普尔500指数上周在200日移动均线处的反弹，这是一个广泛监测的指数相对于当前价格动能的技术指标。他认为，该线的反弹表明这一趋势现在可以作为对指数的支撑。Wilson表示，如果美国国债收益率和美元继续下跌，该指数可能会走高：上周股市在关键的支撑测试中幸存下来，这表明当前的熊市反弹尚未准备好结束。由于投资者押注美联储不会将利率提高到已经消化的峰值水平之上，标普500指数在上周五结束了连续三周的下跌。曾正确地预测了去年股市的抛售和10月份反弹的Wilson认为，下一个标普500的阻力位是4150点，这意味着和上周五的收盘价相比，美股仍有大约2.5%的上涨空间。不过，他也预计，当前美股的反弹不会持续很长时间。他表示，随着基本面继续恶化，尤其是在盈利方面，市场在中期将进一步下跌：尽管出现反弹，但我们认为，鉴于市场对估值和盈利的预期仍然过高，我们认为很多股票将依然提供非常差的风险回报。此外，我们继续预计美股上市公司的利润率将非常令人失望。Wilson指出，当前美股上市公司报告的收益和现金流量之间的差距是25年来最大的，这是由尚未反映的过剩库存和资本化成本驱动的。他认为，最快就在本月，熊市将会卷土重来。上周，他在一份报告中称，美国股市的逆风因素将在3月份进一步得到强化，美股将因盈利不佳和高估值而承压，在3月面临熊市风险。Wilson指出，当前华尔街分析师们暂停下调对未来12个月美股的盈利预期，这令一些投资者的乐观情绪获得提振。然而美股熊市的特点是，在季度财报季中间会出现这种前景展望趋于平缓的情况，之后盈利预期将重新遭到下调。美国股市往往会提前一个月回应并走低，这个周期完美地说明了这种模式。Wilson坚信，美股的盈利衰退远未结束，3月将是股市下一轮下跌的高风险月份。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9940442363,"gmtCreate":1678145501552,"gmtModify":1678145505388,"author":{"id":"4093776112978220","authorId":"4093776112978220","name":"xOxtMhxOx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f890216803cdf3b76e8ad5fa843f9e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Try","listText":"Try","text":"Try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940442363","repostId":2317170704,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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