“新美联储通讯社”暗示：美联储或将在3月加息50个基点！

金十数据2023-03-08

Timiraos援引德银经济学家的观点表示，鲍威尔的言论似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门，而是可能成为了一种“事实”......“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新撰文称，美联储将考虑本月加息50个基点，并可能在今年将利率上调至此前预期的水平，为表现出惊人强劲势头的经济降温。Timiraos表示，鲍威尔周二对国会议员的讲话为美联储降低价格压力的重大策略转变奠定了基础。他...

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Kevin29
2023-03-08
Kevin29
[财迷]
淋淼淼
2023-03-08
淋淼淼
Ok

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Luzzetti表示，他的总体言论“似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门”，而是成为了一种“事实”，现在只有惊人的疲弱数据才能阻止出现这种结果。自美联储官员2月1日召开会议以来，几份经济报告显示，1月份的招聘、支出和通胀都强于预期。更重要的是，修正后的数据显示，通胀和劳动力需求并没有像去年底最初报道的那样疲软。鲍威尔说：“在某种程度上，我们真的看到了我们认为正在看到的情况的逆转。”Timiraos表示，上个月，鲍威尔也曾表示，放慢加息速度将更好地确保美联储不会过多加息。但他却在周二“转向”，并说：“在我看来，数据中没有任何迹象表明我们收紧得太紧了。”鲍威尔说，近期的上涨在一定程度上可能反映了1月份异常温暖的天气，这可能会干扰经济数据的季节性调整。但他补充称，这种逆转的幅度，以及对之前数据的修正“表明通胀压力高于我们上次议息会议时的预期。”Luzzetti说，鲍威尔对修正数据的强调承认，美国经济最近的强劲势头可能并不仅限于一个月。他说：“我们从2月会议以来得到的几个月的数据几乎都在推动美联储向更鹰派的方向推进。”Timiraos还说，在听证会中，两党多数议员对鲍威尔过去一年的利率管理方式表示赞赏，或只是提出了温和的批评。在听证会中，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦对他提出了质疑，因为她担心美联储遏制通胀的努力可能导致比美联储官员所说的更大程度的失业。沃伦称，随着美联储试图减缓经济增长，近200万的工人可能会失业。鲍威尔说，通货膨胀“非常高，它严重伤害了这个国家所有的劳动人民。”沃伦问道，这是否意味着失业工人将“只能忍受”？鲍威尔的回答可能反应出了美联储的坚决，他说：“如果我们放弃工作，通胀保持在5%或6%，工人阶级的生活会更好吗?”鲍威尔星期三将重登国会山，参加众议院一个委员会举行的第二天听证会。这将是其在3月议息会议前发表的最后一次公开讲话，也是美联储下次会议前影响市场预期的最后一次机会。官员们将于周六开始他们的会前静默期。近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期。美联储上次开会时，利率期货市场的投资者预计，官员们今年只会将联邦基金利率再上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息。根据芝商所的“美联储观察工具”，在周二的听证会之前，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。在听证会后，投资者预计联邦基金利率今年将升至5.5%至5.75%之间，本月加息50个基点的概率从听证会前的32%升至72%，而在两周前，这一几率仅不到30%。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9949994737,"gmtCreate":1678286806929,"gmtModify":1678286811958,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949994737","repostId":2317283696,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9949992187,"gmtCreate":1678285230850,"gmtModify":1678285235674,"author":{"id":"3560232049258248","authorId":"3560232049258248","name":"淋淼淼","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a362c5f48704c94736ac2049248cb09","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560232049258248","authorIdStr":"3560232049258248"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949992187","repostId":2317283696,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":43,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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