非农已连续10个月超市场预期，周五会“再添一笔”吗？

金十数据2023-03-08

经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。美国非农就业人数增长已连续10个月超过市场预期，这是数十年来持续时间最长的一次。如果这一趋势继续延续下去，将加大美联储继续加息的压力。从去年4月开始，外媒对经济学家每次调查的预测中值都比政府公布的非农数据平均每月低10万人，这是外媒自1998年以来汇编的数据中差距最大的。对于周五公布的2月非农就业报告，市场预估为...

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钱包君你要振作起来
2023-03-08
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Will it \"add another sum\" on Friday?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061469478f0b7527797e7163364308fd","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":0.84,".DJI":0.84,"SPY":0.84,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6},"content_text":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。美国非农就业人数增长已连续10个月超过市场预期，这是数十年来持续时间最长的一次。如果这一趋势继续延续下去，将加大美联储继续加息的压力。从去年4月开始，外媒对经济学家每次调查的预测中值都比政府公布的非农数据平均每月低10万人，这是外媒自1998年以来汇编的数据中差距最大的。对于周五公布的2月非农就业报告，市场预估为增加20万人，增幅约为1月的一半。经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。在经历了新冠疫情后，企业不愿意解雇他们辛辛苦苦雇用的员工。阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示：“市场一直预期，在美联储加息的背景下，经济将放缓，但这种情况根本没有发生。”雇主们仍在努力填补数百万个空缺职位，初请失业金申请人数也处于历史最低水平。另一方面，一些行业正在裁员，美联储预计将在夏季继续加息，这可能会对需求造成更大压力，并有大幅放缓招聘的风险。目前，劳动力市场是美联储对抗通胀的最后几个障碍之一。稳定的就业机会创造和工资增长将使消费者保持消费，从而使价格持续上涨。对于那些试图在不引发衰退的情况下为通胀降温的政策制定者来说，理解通胀的轨迹至关重要。以下是会让就业人数出奇强劲的一些因素：对工人的需求仍大截至今年年底，美国就业机会超过1100万个，目前，市场预期周三公布的美国1月JOLTs职位空缺预计将显示1月份就业机会略微放缓。空缺最明显的是休闲和酒店以及医疗保健等行业，而其他数据显示，制造商和小企业也在努力填补空缺。由于劳动力短缺如此严重，企业一直在留住工人，这种做法被称为“劳动力囤积”。美联储在上次政策会议上提到了这一点。德意志银行高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan说：“如果劳动力囤积的趋势持续下去，它可能会让劳动力市场在周期中更强劲一段时间，真的很难确定经济放缓的时间。”裁员范围小虽然科技行业正大刀阔斧地进行裁员，仅从去年11月到1月就裁了有11万人左右，但这在近1.66亿劳动力中只是一小部分。高盛的经济学家说，这种情况在很大程度上也仅限于那些在疫情期间积极扩张、股价跌幅很大的公司。他们在一份报告中称：“这些特征表明，进行裁员的公司并不能代表整体经济，近期许多裁员公告并不一定意味着可能产生更广泛影响的招聘需求疲软。”美国劳工统计局的数据显示，整体经济中更广泛的裁员指标仍低于疫情前的水平，不过在过去一年有所上升。申请失业救济的人数仍然很低，连续7周不到20万人。其中，部分原因可能是遣散费，摩根大通经济学家Daniel Silver上个月估计，根据他们的模型，失业救济申请人数应增加约5万人，但因为遣散费，企业裁员的进度可能会推迟。此外，失业的美国人也可能很快被其他公司挖走。招聘率（招聘人数相对于总就业人数）仍然高于疫情前的平均水平。德意志银行的Ryan预计，周三公布的最新修正数据将使招聘率看起来更加强劲。需要注意的是，就业人数在去年年中就已恢复到疫情前的水平，因此就业人数增长的速度放缓是很自然的。此外，美联储的加息可能会加速经济降温的趋势。这就是美联储正在努力设计的，即减缓招聘步伐，以缓解工资压力，并使通胀降至2%的目标。牛津经济研究院的Ryan Sweet上月在一份报告中表示：“如果裁员公告的广度扩大，或者再就业率开始迅速下降，这将表明劳动力市场正在形成裂缝。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9949902904,"gmtCreate":1678280308609,"gmtModify":1678280313066,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4ee508af567e6639a2df65c59c89c7d2","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902904","repostId":2317496400,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2317496400"}