Powell’s Testimony: Wall Street’s View

The Australian Financial Review2023-03-08

The Federal Reserve chairman made clear that he’s willing to press interest rates both higher and at a faster pace if needed as the US central bank reacts to more resilient than expected economy and ...

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Ninja Turtle
2023-03-08
Ninja Turtle
Gd
SNeo
2023-03-08
SNeo
[OK]
Simonnov
2023-03-08
Simonnov
Ic
trojan1337
2023-03-08
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CLOUD1127
2023-03-08
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the two-year yield was 5.01 per cent. The S&P 500 fell 1.5 per cent to 3986.Oxford Economics said investors have reset their rate expectations too high. “Markets are likely overreacting to his testimony as Powell missed opportunities in the past to strike a more hawkish tone but dropped the ball.“The easing in financial market conditions, on net, since October – despite the February rout in the Treasury market – likely led him to use Tuesday’s testimony to push back against financial markets.”Mohamed El-Erian: “As many of you know, I have felt for a few months now that the 2 year yield was the best indicator of what broader financial markets would do and why. Today’s comments by #FederalReserve Chair Powell pushed this yield to over 5%.“and put the Fed in a tricky dilemma: either validate the market move by negating its prior policy guidance or stay with 25bps and fall further behind. Both come with reputational risks.”Jim Bianco: “On the day the 2-year yield breaks above 5 per cent, should we now start talking about 6 per cent?”Yardeni Research: “There may be more downside for stocks in coming days if the next batch of economic indicators are hotter than expected. We are expecting lukewarm numbers, which would limit the downside. The bond yield may continue to make a stand around 4.00 per cent.”Santander’s Stephen Stanley said he likened today’s statement to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech in August: “It is short and to the point. More importantly, it is significantly more hawkish than I anticipated.”“At this time, I am sticking to my call for a 25 BP rate hike on March 22. I still believe that the bar is high for the Fed to reverse field and increase the magnitude of its rate moves. Nevertheless, there is no question that Powell opened the door to a 50 BP hike in March.”Capital Economics’ Andrew Hunter: “The upshot is that not only are interest rates set to rise higher than we previously anticipated, but there is a lot less scope for rate cuts later this year than we had originally thought.“Nevertheless, with most leading indicators still flashing red and the impact of the huge monetary tightening already seen still feeding through, we still believe the real economy and labour market are likely to be weaker this year than the Fed expects, with a recession, the most likely outcome. That should push inflation down a little more quickly than the Fed anticipates.“As a result, we still think rate cuts will come sooner than markets are now pricing in, and potentially still before the end of this year.”Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner: Powell’s opening “statement opens the door to a return to 50bp hikes at the March meeting and potentially beyond if the data flow confirms the re-acceleration in both the labour market and inflation, which both surprised to the upside in January.”Allianz Investment’s Charlie Ripley: “[The] reality is that he is largely affirming what the bond market has already priced in. The terminal level for policy rates will be slightly higher than previous expectations as the timing of an economic slowdown has been pushed further down the road.”Monex Europe’s Simon Harvey: “It seems like Powell has finally yielded control over financial markets after repeated attempts to try and get them to bend to the Fed’s message.”Harvey also said “Powell is letting financial markets do the dirty work for him”; it appears the Fed is more keen to extend the rate rising cycle than a re-acceleration.Comerica Bank’s Bill Adams said while Powell’s comments put a larger rate rise in play later this month, he’s still expecting a quarter point lift. “Comerica’s baseline forecast assumes that the spike in retail sales and inflation in early 2023 was at least partly due to unseasonably warm weather fueling a short-lived pickup in consumer spending, and that prices will return to their cooling trend by later in the spring. If so, the Fed would likely end its rate hikes at a range of 5.25 per cent-to-5.50 per cent in June.”BlackRock's Rick Rieder: \"We think there’s a reasonable chance that the Fed will have to bring the Fed Funds rate to 6%, and then keep it there for an extended period to slow the economy and get inflation down to near 2%,\" Rieder said in a note on Tuesday.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9949023244,"gmtCreate":1678248753089,"gmtModify":1678249578394,"author":{"id":"3563453722893943","authorId":"3563453722893943","name":"Ninja 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