市场降息预期浓厚之际，美联储大鹰派称上调其利率预期至5.625%

华尔街见闻2023-03-25

圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长James Bullard表示，鉴于美国经济持续强劲，他提高了对今年利率峰值的预测，从5.375%升至5.625%。该预测是基于银行业压力将会缓解的假设。周五同日，另有多位美联储官员认为3月加息理由充分。周五，美联储“大鹰派”、圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长James Bullard表示，美国第一季度的经济数据强于预期，鉴于经济持续强劲，他提高了对今年利率峰值的预测。该预测是基于...

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benben82
2023-03-25
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一个正常的名称
2023-03-25
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Bullard表示，美国第一季度的经济数据强于预期，鉴于经济持续强劲，他提高了对今年利率峰值的预测。该预测是基于银行业压力将会缓解的假设。Bullard具体解释称，他之前的利率终点预期是5.375%，现在的预期是5.625%，所以是提高了25个基点，以回应更强劲的经济数据。上调利率预期基于一个假设——未来几周和几个月内，金融压力会减轻。如果金融压力恶化，也可能会下调利率预期，不过这不是他认为的基线场景。Bullard谈及美国银行业，他认为仍然是强劲的，具有韧性，美国联邦政府对银行业动荡的反应迅速、恰当。当前，美联储面临着价格稳定VS金融稳定之间的权衡。对于银行业危机的另一面——通胀，Bullard周五指出，通胀仍然过高，提前加息使通胀预期保持在低位。如果放弃2%的通胀目标，那将是一场灾难。美联储在本周三的会议上如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，创下2007年9月、也即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。从点阵图来看，美联储官员们的中位数预期依旧是2023年美国峰值利率为5.1%，与去年12月的预期持平；对2024年底的利率预期从4.1%升至4.3%，对2025年底和更长期利率的预期分别维持在3.1%和2.5%不变。点阵图还显示，另外有两位官员与Bullard的预测相同，预计2023年美国峰值利率可达5.625%，还有一位官员的预估更高，给出了5.875%的峰值。Bullard的上述表态，与市场预期大相径庭。周五，从美国互换市场来看，交易员们认为美联储已经结束了当前的加息周期，5月份加息25个基点的可能性已完全排除。他们预计到年底，美联储将总计降息超过一个百分点。同日，美国亚特兰大联储主席Bostic也发表讲话，给出其支持加息的依据。他透露，本周在银行业危机期间加息25个基点的决定绝非轻率做出。这其中有很多辩论，不是一个直截了当的决定。Bostic表示，最终美联储内部做出的结论是有明确的迹象表明银行体系稳固且坚韧，在这种背景下，通胀仍然过高。硅谷银行倒闭发生在美联储3月会议开会不到两周之前，造成了很多不确定性，一些决策者希望观望而不是加息。在会议前的周末，我们没有认为情况会变得更糟，我认同这个看法，这让我相信我们可以应付。美国里士满联储主席巴尔金周五也表达了支持加息的观点，他表示，美国劳动力市场紧俏，通胀太高，这使得加息的理由非常充分。在美联储最终决定加息之前，美国银行体系已经稳定下来。美联储制定的一项新的紧急贷款计划似乎有助于帮助恢复平静。美联储主席鲍威尔在本周三的新闻发布会上表示，在3月会议开始的前几天，美联储曾考虑过暂停加息，但加息行动得到FOMC成员强有力的一致支持，因为通胀太高。如有必要，美联储将超预期加息。美联储预计今年不会降息。鲍威尔认为，银行系统的存款流动已经稳定，银行危机可能只会产生适度影响。美联储承认美国经济有下行风险，但依然有可能实现软着陆。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9943757442,"gmtCreate":1679752340987,"gmtModify":1679752344762,"author":{"id":"3548412292431483","authorId":"3548412292431483","name":"benben82","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d5066411f8c70a09959487fa1c126ab","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3548412292431483","authorIdStr":"3548412292431483"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943757442","repostId":2322454144,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9943717151,"gmtCreate":1679716052873,"gmtModify":1679716056393,"author":{"id":"4142746771171822","authorId":"4142746771171822","name":"一个正常的名称","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d508b8060163e453a31dfa85a77c4043","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4142746771171822","authorIdStr":"4142746771171822"},"htmlText":"Jkdfjfjfjfj","listText":"Jkdfjfjfjfj","text":"Jkdfjfjfjfj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943717151","repostId":2322454144,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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