Charts: Three key readings to track financial market stress

Yahoo Finance2023-03-28

Stocks were mixed to start the week on Monday, though this action kept the Nasdaq Composite on pace for a quarterly gain north of 10% while the S&P 500 is up more than 3% to start the year. Meanwhile...

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharts: Three key readings to track financial market stress\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-28 04:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charts-three-key-readings-to-track-financial-market-stress-201441517.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks were mixed to start the week on Monday, though this action kept the Nasdaq Composite on pace for a quarterly gain north of 10% while the S&P 500 is up more than 3% to start the year. \nMeanwhile...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charts-three-key-readings-to-track-financial-market-stress-201441517.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1861220207.SGD","symbol_name":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charts-three-key-readings-to-track-financial-market-stress-201441517.html","article_id":"2322470869","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/q0Ispxdv.MjJ9r5pejF9Ow--~B/aD0yMDAwO3c9MzAwMDthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2023-03/a8dbfe40-ccda-11ed-b7ff-ab7e36d0f813"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2322470869","pubTimestamp":1679948081,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"yahoofinance","name":"雅虎金融"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Stocks were mixed to start the week on Monday, though this action kept the Nasdaq Composite on pace ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","JNK":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays高收益债","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UBS":"瑞银","SBNY":"签字银行","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4211":"区域性银行","SBNYL":"Signature Bank (New York, NY)","DB":"德意志银行","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF","SIVBQ":"硅谷银行","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","GS":"高盛","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4589":"SVB概念","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","SIVPQ":"SVB Financial Group","BAC":"美国银行","WFC":"富国银行","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"translate_title":"图表：追踪金融市场压力的三个关键读数","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"JNK":1,"HYG":1,"DB":1,"FRC":0.9,"SIVB":0.9,"SBNYP":0.9,"SBNYL":0.9,"SBNY":0.9,"SIVBP":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"SIVBQ":0.9,"GS":0.9,"SIVPQ":0.9,"CS":0.9,"TVIX":0.9,"UBS":0.9,"VXX":0.9,"WAL":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"SVXY":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"VIXY":0.6,"VIXmain":0.6},"content_text":"Stocks were mixed to start the week on Monday, though this action kept the Nasdaq Composite on pace for a quarterly gain north of 10% while the S&P 500 is up more than 3% to start the year. \nMeanwhile, the Treasury market has also seen a huge rally with the 10-year yield falling from a high north of 4% in early March to as low as 3.38% last week. \nThese moves come as the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week and investors weigh the Fed's latest actions and attempt to assess the odds of further bank failures and even recession. \nFor investors looking tracking financial stress to watch going forward, here are the key charts to watch. \n1. Rising Market Volatility — YF Tickers: ^VIX, ^VVIX, ^MOVE\nThe VIX (^VIX), also known as the \"fear index,\" measures investors' expectations of future (or \"implied\") volatility over the next 30 days in the S&P 500. It is calculated based on transactions in options on the index itself.\nIn general, higher stock index volatility tends to accompany selloffs, indicating \"fear\" in the market. Conversely, lower volatility is usually associated with stock market rallies\nJust as the VIX measures stock market volatility, the VVIX (^VVIX) measures the volatility of the VIX itself. Sometimes, it will perk up and serve as an advance warning of moves in the underlying VIX.\nThe ICE BofAML MOVE Index (^MOVE) index is the bond market's answer to the VIX. It is calculated once each day after the close, and so unlike the VIX the MOVE Index does not give intraday readings of volatility.\nPro tip: An extreme upside VIX spike will usually accompany a huge down day in stocks — but that won't necessarily mark the low in stocks. If the VIX remains elevated, stocks can continue to drop as the VIX goes sideways, or even down itself. As the pros say, \"Don't confuse pace with direction.\"\nCurrent status: The VIX shot above the 30 level last week as concerns over bank stress grew — only to crash Monday and Tuesday last week and remain lower into the news week, trading near 21. \nThe MOVE index peaked at nearly 200 on March 20 — higher than the pandemic highs — and after cooling mid-week, surged on Friday amid investor fears over Deutsche Bank (DB), finishing the week above 170. \n\n\n\n  A trader watches prices in the VIX pit at the Cboe Global Markets, Inc. exchange on February 6, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)\n \n\n  Scott Olson via Getty Images\n \n\n2. Haven Flows — YF Tickers: JPY=X, EURJPY=X\nForeign exchange pairs measure the change in two currencies relative to one another. Typically, the ratio reflects differences in short-term interest rates between the two countries or areas. \nRelatively higher-rate countries tend to attract investment capital, while lower-rate jurisdictions are sources of funds to be borrowed and invested elsewhere — generally referred to as the carry trade.\nHowever, in times of stress, a premium is placed on developed market currencies — especially the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. Money flows from risky areas into these safe havens in what are called \"haven flows.\"\nOver the last 30 years, the Bank of Japan has maintained the easiest monetary policy among developed nations. As a result, a favored macro trade is to borrow money in Japan, then invest it in the bonds of a higher-interest rate economy. \nTraders have historically looked to the EURJPY pair — pitting the euro against the yen — as a barometer of global risk tolerance. If the euro rises against the yen, the theory says riskier investments are in favor as money flows into Europe from Japan. Conversely, the pair often heads south when global risk surfaces and funds need a relatively \"safe\" home. \nPitting the dollar against the yen is also useful to use as an early warning sign. With U.S. rates far above those in Japan, big flows into the yen — evidenced by a lower USDJPY — can be a red flag for overall risk tolerance when this pair drops quickly. \nPro tip: The order of the currencies in their abbreviated ticker is made by convention, which can be confusing. For instance, the euro versus the dollar is typically expressed as EURUSD. Notably, Yahoo Finance omits the \"USD\" in forex tickers if it occurs first and appends an \"=X\" to all pairs. For instance, the Yahoo Finance ticker for USDJPY is JPY=X, for EURJPY, the ticker is EURJPY=X.\nCurrent status: Neither the euro nor the dollar is showing signs of sustained strong haven flows into the yen — though the yen has net strengthened since the SVB failure. \n3. Deteriorating Credit Markets — YF Tickers: HYG, JNK\nInvestors closely watch corporate credit markets for signs of weakness, as they are often first to show cracks in risk appetite. Corporate bonds are measured in how wide or tight their rates of interest are from the corresponding tenors of government debt. But stock investors don't need a fancy terminal to measure stress in corporate bonds.\nETFs that track corporate credit — like the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) — can do the job. \nThe ETFs track prices on a selection of corporate bonds, which move inversely to yield. In times of stress, when yields surge higher, the ETFs will nosedive, as they did during the pandemic and other periods of stress.\nBack in the early days of the pandemic, the Fed took the then-unprecedented step to support corporate credit markets by buying these two ETFs directly. \nIf these ETFs do plummet again, watch out for quick, outsized reversals to the upside, which can indicate the Fed has taken action to support markets.\nCurrent status: HYG and JNK aren't currently reflecting or forecasting extreme market stress.\nClick here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks\nRead the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2322470869"}