CPI报告吹响终场哨声！美联储要赢了？

金十数据2023-04-13

最新公布的CPI报告对于美联储和美国人的钱包来说，无疑是个好消息，更重要的是，这还释放出一个重要信号……对美联储和美国人的钱包来说，情况看起来正在好转。周三，美国劳工统计局的最新报告显示，CPI衡量的通胀率下降了整整一个百分点。作为衡量通胀的指标之一，CPI年率从2月份的6.0%暴跌至3月份的5.0%，这是自2021年5月以来的最低水平。对美联储来说这是个好消息，因为它正在继续努力让通胀回到2%的...

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Kevin29
2023-04-14
Kevin29
[财迷]
Alex TPB
2023-04-13
Alex TPB
[冷漠]

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The Fed is going to win?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a0d18e91630c2ec78e94af276523d4a","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"CPI":1,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6},"content_text":"最新公布的CPI报告对于美联储和美国人的钱包来说，无疑是个好消息，更重要的是，这还释放出一个重要信号……对美联储和美国人的钱包来说，情况看起来正在好转。周三，美国劳工统计局的最新报告显示，CPI衡量的通胀率下降了整整一个百分点。作为衡量通胀的指标之一，CPI年率从2月份的6.0%暴跌至3月份的5.0%，这是自2021年5月以来的最低水平。对美联储来说这是个好消息，因为它正在继续努力让通胀回到2%的目标水平。尽管美国要实现这一目标还有很长的路要走，但最新的经济数据显示，美联储的持续加息正在发挥作用，美联储正赢得通胀战争。PCE（个人消费支出）价格指数是美联储密切关注的另一个通胀指标，该指标也显示出令人鼓舞的迹象。与1月份相比，该指数2月份的环比增速较低，同比增速也显示出，这一通胀指标在很大程度上一直在下降。美联储也一直在寻找劳动力市场收紧的迹象，它可能也看到了。美国3月份新增就业岗位23.6万个，增幅低于前几个月，就业市场增速放缓至依然强劲但未过热的水平，正是美联储一直在寻求的结果。Indeed Hiring Lab北美地区经济研究主管邦克（Nick Bunker）表示：“即使增长放缓，劳动力市场仍在快速发展。”很明显，美国经济正在朝着正确的方向前进，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔因其持续加息以及此举可能引发失业和最终的经济衰退而面临民主党议员的批评。例如在美联储3月加息后，参议员沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）公开表示：“鲍威尔犯了一个错误，他没有暂停其极端的加息。几个月来，我一直警告说，美联储目前的做法可能会让数百万美国人失去工作。我们有很多工具来对抗通胀，同时又不会把经济推下悬崖。”但鲍威尔在今年3月的新闻发布会上表示，在实现降低通胀目标方面他不会退缩，他声称：“因为我们知道，从长远来看，这是最有利于人民的事情。”尽管美联储今年不打算降息，但最新的经济数据暗示美联储可能即将暂停加息。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周二在芝加哥经济俱乐部表示，在硅谷银行倒闭带来的“金融压力”之后，“正确的货币政策需要谨慎和耐心”。他表示：“鉴于这些金融逆风走向的不确定性很大，我认为我们需要保持谨慎。我们应该收集进一步的数据，并且在我们看到逆风在降低通胀方面起到多大帮助之前，对过于激进的加息应持谨慎态度。”硅谷银行的崩溃加剧了对暂停加息的呼吁，因为这一崩溃引发了经济的不确定性。虽然鲍威尔声称银行体系“稳健而有弹性”，但崩溃的后果可能是“相当于加息，甚至可能还不止于此”，因为企业和家庭的信贷条件可能会收紧。可以肯定的是，虽然3月份整体CPI走低是好消息，但房价和公寓租金仍在高速上涨。与此同时，3月份剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比涨幅略高于2月份，这在很大程度上是受住房价格上涨的推动。不确定性仍存在。硅谷银行的倒闭可能会使金融状况变得更加严峻，企业和消费者的借贷和支出可能减缓，但过高的核心通胀可能会迫使美联储继续加息，这意味着经济衰退的可能性依然存在。不过，美联储仍在寻找支持潜在暂停加息所需的数据，因此，看起来美国更有可能避免严重的经济衰退。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9945832437,"gmtCreate":1681425549429,"gmtModify":1681425551876,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945832437","repostId":2327422131,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9945101881,"gmtCreate":1681395240243,"gmtModify":1681395243092,"author":{"id":"4104319847066980","authorId":"4104319847066980","name":"Alex TPB","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f14e548cc675219be9596d3180ba4768","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4104319847066980","authorIdStr":"4104319847066980"},"htmlText":"[冷漠]&nbsp;","listText":"[冷漠]&nbsp;","text":"[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945101881","repostId":2327422131,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":20,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2327422131"}