Goldman and TD Stake Out Opposite Positions on Fed Cut Wager

Bloomberg2023-04-18

Clashing views on year-on-year rate path starting in SeptemberTD says the spread prices too few cuts, Goldman says too manyA pair of conflicting trade recommendations from strategists at major banks ...

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Booksman
2023-04-19
Booksman
This is very depressing news....but main point is whether FED will sustain the momentum rate hike...or slow down...whatever action taken down the road...this won't stop the risk of debt ceiling issue...

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Strategists at TD Securities say that’s not enough, while those at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say it’s too much.Accordingly, the banks have advised taking opposite sides of the same trade in futures on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which track expectations for the Fed’s policy path.Goldman strategists Friday recommended positioning for a less deeply inverted spread between the September 2023 and September 2024 contract rates. Those at TD Securities had advised wagering on an even deeper one the previous day. TD expects Fed rate cuts totaling 275 basis points from December 2023 to September 2024 and for the market to move in that direction. “We look for cut pricing to increase even further,” strategists led by Priya Misra said in a note.Goldman, on the other hand, thinks investors have discounted too much easing and will think better of it in response to “a bounce in activity data” and still-elevated inflation readings, a note by strategists including Praveen Korapaty said.“Some cuts currently being priced will come off,” they predicted. The swaps market linked to Fed policy dates currently prices in a rate peak of about 5.14% in June, about 55 basis points of cuts by year-end and a combined 190 basis points of cuts by September 2024.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9944232929,"gmtCreate":1681864793462,"gmtModify":1681868738118,"author":{"id":"3579036207812229","authorId":"3579036207812229","name":"Booksman","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/36b1e122ede185cebac64d58935ef847","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3579036207812229","idStr":"3579036207812229"},"htmlText":"This is very depressing news....but main point is whether FED will sustain the momentum rate hike...or slow down...whatever action taken down the road...this won't stop the risk of debt ceiling issue...","listText":"This is very depressing news....but main point is whether FED will sustain the momentum rate hike...or slow down...whatever action taken down the road...this won't stop the risk of debt ceiling issue...","text":"This is very depressing news....but main point is whether FED will sustain the momentum rate hike...or slow down...whatever action taken down the road...this won't stop the risk of debt ceiling issue...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944232929","repostId":2328284281,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":25,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2328284281"}