大小摩和瑞银偏好债券胜于股票，经济衰退威胁是主因

环球市场播报2023-05-03

经济衰退的威胁正使债券成为较安全的投资，而股市尚未反映这些风险。这是从摩根大通到瑞银和摩根士丹利一些基金经理和策略师的观点，他们现在更偏好固定收益工具而非股票。他们所持的论点是：债券（尤其是评级较高的债券）将能更好地抵御任何经济放缓；如果美联储未能实现软着陆，股票受伤会较重。他们这个想法是受到数据支持的。一是高级别美元债券收益率与MSCI ACWI指数成分企业的股息收益率之差。这个差距在过去一年...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Mingzu
2023-05-03
Mingzu
[微笑]

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2332140299?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-05-03 18:04","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2332140299","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"大小摩和瑞银偏好债券胜于股票，经济衰退威胁是主因","media":"环球市场播报","content":"<div>\n<p>经济衰退的威胁正使债券成为较安全的投资，而股市尚未反映这些风险。这是从摩根大通到瑞银和摩根士丹利一些基金经理和策略师的观点，他们现在更偏好固定收益工具而非股票。他们所持的论点是：债券（尤其是评级较高的债券）将能更好地抵御任何经济放缓；如果美联储未能实现软着陆，股票受伤会较重。他们这个想法是受到数据支持的。一是高级别美元债券收益率与MSCI ACWI指数成分企业的股息收益率之差。这个差距在过去一年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-05-03/doc-imysniyz3979244.shtml\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大小摩和瑞银偏好债券胜于股票，经济衰退威胁是主因</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大小摩和瑞银偏好债券胜于股票，经济衰退威胁是主因\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-03 18:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-05-03/doc-imysniyz3979244.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经济衰退的威胁正使债券成为较安全的投资，而股市尚未反映这些风险。这是从摩根大通到瑞银和摩根士丹利一些基金经理和策略师的观点，他们现在更偏好固定收益工具而非股票。他们所持的论点是：债券（尤其是评级较高的债券）将能更好地抵御任何经济放缓；如果美联储未能实现软着陆，股票受伤会较重。他们这个想法是受到数据支持的。一是高级别美元债券收益率与MSCI ACWI指数成分企业的股息收益率之差。这个差距在过去一年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-05-03/doc-imysniyz3979244.shtml\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"JPM","symbol_name":"摩根大通","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-05-03/doc-imysniyz3979244.shtml","article_id":"2332140299","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-05-03/doc-imysniyz3979244.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}","selectors":".art_box, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action, .fl_popup, .weibo_info","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332140299","pubTimestamp":1683108262,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_sina","name":"新浪港股"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"经济衰退的威胁正使债券成为较安全的投资，而股市尚未反映这些风险。这是从摩根大通到瑞银和摩根士丹利一些基金经理和策略师的观点，他们现在更偏好固定收益工具而非股票。他们所持的论点是：债券（尤其是评级较高的","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley and UBS prefer bonds to stocks, and the threat of economic recession is the main reason","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249c40a422a35bcd7512725d5d7b4b05","symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9},"content_text":"经济衰退的威胁正使债券成为较安全的投资，而股市尚未反映这些风险。这是从摩根大通到瑞银和摩根士丹利一些基金经理和策略师的观点，他们现在更偏好固定收益工具而非股票。他们所持的论点是：债券（尤其是评级较高的债券）将能更好地抵御任何经济放缓；如果美联储未能实现软着陆，股票受伤会较重。他们这个想法是受到数据支持的。一是高级别美元债券收益率与MSCI ACWI指数成分企业的股息收益率之差。这个差距在过去一年扩大近90个基点，并接近3月份的峰值，这是自2008年全球金融危机以来的最高水平。现在购买债券可以为投资者提供额外的收益，如果利率下降，他们还有资本利得。周二美国区域性银行遭到抛售，再度引爆对金融稳定的焦虑，股市的风险成为关注焦点，股市下跌。资金寻求避险下，提振了债券。两年期美国国债收益率一度暴跌21个基点至4%以下，该国债收益率对美联储动作极为敏感。全球股市今年迄今的回报率因而降至约7%，投资级别债券为3.3%。股票估值仍高于其12个月的平均水平，对一些投资者来说股价太贵。摩根资产管理首席亚洲市场策略师Tai Hui表示，他坚信目前整体机会仍然有利于固定收益。对于股票来说，美国的估值仍然不是特别便宜，他认为盈利预期仍然过于乐观。当然，在一个波动的市场，公司债也面临风险。如果挥之不去的通货膨胀使利率居高不下，那可能会导致经济衰退，更多公司会因而倒闭。经济若放缓，也可能加添全球垃圾债券市场的压力，这个市场对违约风险更为敏感。从更广泛的宏观前景来看，一些观察人士目前总体上更偏好债券。MSCI ACWI指数成分股以未来12个月预估获利为分母计算的市盈率，已从9月底的13.4倍升至约15.8倍。据调查，经济学家认为，美国在未来12个月内陷入衰退的可能性为65%，去年同期为25%。 与此同时，标准普尔500指数期货的净空头头寸升至十几年来的高位，表明市场对股价走低的强烈预期。据瑞银全球财富管理亚太区股票和信用主管Hartmut Issel称，瑞银已将债券上调至其最偏爱的资产类别，并将股票下调至最不偏爱的资产类别。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9947646482,"gmtCreate":1683116985947,"gmtModify":1683116989520,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorIdStr":"3582685386479633"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947646482","repostId":2332140299,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2332140299"}