Tourlite Capital Management First Quarter 2023 Investor Letter

seekingalpha2023-05-22

Avalon_Studio To My Partners: Tourlite Fund, LP Founder Class returned 1.0% for the First Quarter of 2023. The fund has returned 6.1% since inception in April 2022, compared to -7.8% for the S&P 500 ...

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The fund has returned 6.1% since inception in April 2022, compared to -7.8% for the S&P 500 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606384-tourlite-capital-management-q1-2023-investor-letter\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tourlite Capital Management First Quarter 2023 Investor Letter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTourlite Capital Management First Quarter 2023 Investor Letter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-22 14:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606384-tourlite-capital-management-q1-2023-investor-letter><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Avalon_Studio To My Partners: Tourlite Fund, LP Founder Class returned 1.0% for the First Quarter of 2023. 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The fund has returned 6.1% since inception in April 2022, compared to -7.8% for the S&P 500 and -11.6% for the Russell 2000.1,2      Portfolio Update At the end of the quarter, our portfolio’s sector concentration represented: consumer (~40%), industrials (~40%), technology (~15%), other (~5%).8,9 The Fund’s net exposure continued to remain low during the first quarter. Our gross exposure during the quarter was in the range of 180-195%. This is within our expected range (180% - 250%), and higher than its level 2022. We increased our gross exposure for two reasons: 1) an increase in the opportunity set for both sides of the portfolio, and 2) a continued decline in correlation within factors.    Performance Commentary Our long portfolio increased 11.5%, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the more diversified Russell 2000. Our short portfolio was a significant drag for the quarter, driven by the outperformance of shorts in the first 5 weeks of the year and a few large short positions which rose throughout the quarter.    In our last letter, we said the nature of holding long positions with a multi-year horizon is the potential for periodic periods of underperformance in the absence of a catalyst. This ended up being the case for Fortress Aviation and Infrastructure (FTAI), a company that significantly underperformed the market in 2022 until the thesis began to play out this year. The outperformance of the fund’s short portfolio resulted in a significant drawdown in January. We added to our short exposure throughout January. We were early as these companies continued to outperform though the first week of February. This was driven by a combination of traditional and “aggressive shorts,” as typically uncorrelated companies with higher short interest and expensive cyclical names became disconnected from business fundamentals. To control risk, we reduced select positions and removed some entirely.    Top Gainers 1. Provention Bio (PRVB) In October 2022, we published our findings in a note on our website, tourlitecapital.com, and Twitter. After announcing the anticipated FDA approval on November 17th, we maintained a position in Provention with the expectation Sanofi (SNY, OTCPK:SNYNF, GCVRZ) would acquire the business. On March 13th, 2023, Sanofi (SAN FP) announced the acquisition for $25 per share. We exited our position shortly after the announcement and congratulate the entire team at Provention. 2. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) The fund has held a position in FTAI since inception. In 2022, it was a significant detractor from performance. FTAI remains a core position and the fund holds a position in FIP, the infrastructure spinoff. We believed FTAI was significantly mispriced for a couple of reasons. First, FTAI was structured as a partnership which limits funds and indexes ownership. By simplifying FTAI as a C-Corp which eliminates its partnership tax classification, we estimate that over 30 million shares will be subsequently held by passive index funds. This represents ~30% of the float. Second, FTAI operated in two distinct segments: aviation and infrastructure. The aviation segment, in particular, is seeing an inflection in business fundamentals. Therefore, spinning off the infrastructure business has allowed investors to better appreciate the true earnings power of both businesses as standalone companies. 3. APi Group (APG) APi is currently the fund’s largest position. We have briefly discussed the business in our prior letter. We believe APi is a great business with sticky recurring revenue, significant opportunities for margin expansion, and highly aligned management. 4. Undisclosed SPAC Short This SPAC had numerous red flags including the largest customer being an undisclosed related party without any actual operations. The Company has continuously exaggerated or made false claims, never living up to the hype. We covered our position throughout March as the market became aware of our concerns. 5. Verra Mobility (VRRM) After selling off at the end of 2022 due to what we believed to be a misunderstood reaction to earnings, Verra was well-positioned coming into the year. We highlighted a few reasons for the weakness in our last letter: 1) some travel demand pulled forward by one quarter, 2) impact from Hurricane Ian, and 3) a headwind from quarterly seasonality of title registration business. TSA data continues to remain strong through the first quarter, up 20% year-over-year and in line with pre-Covid levels. As of this writing, Q2 data is trending ~10% higher than last year. In February, it was announced Verra was added to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. Top Detractors 1. Undisclosed Short The largest detractor to our short book came from our largest position at the beginning of the year, which was up ~50% during the first quarter. This was a result of favorable guidance and an increase in M&A activity within the peer group. Despite this, we continue to question management’s credibility and believe the guidance to be overly optimistic. Furthermore, we find it unlikely that the company will be acquired as there is a significant fundamental difference in their respective business models and asset ownership. However, we should have reduced our exposure after the updated guidance which had removed any near-term catalyst for price depreciation. 2. Undisclosed Long We are long an undervalued rollup led by an extremely capable, talented, and well-experienced management team. This company was our third largest contributor to performance in 2022 and we remained confident in management’s ability to continue generating shareholder value. After multiple quarters of strong growth, the business suffered a slowdown in one of its business segments. This, combined with overall negative macroeconomic concerns, has negatively impacted the company’s share price. We remain optimistic as this business continues to generate strong free cash flow and has the ability to continue opportunistic acquisitions. 3. European Short We have discussed this business in our 2022 Second Quarter letter. While the stock’s total return was down 15% in 2022, macro tailwinds have resulted in shares being up 14% in the first quarter of 2023.13 Looking to offset a domestic earnings base in terminal decline, the business has embarked on a series of terrible foreign acquisitions which have underperformed, capped off by a disastrous acquisition of a U.S. asset. At the time of the deal, the Company promised its investors a significant cash flow to fund dividends. Based on analysis of the subsidiaries' publicly available financial statements and volumes data, the U.S. assets, 1) have paid out nothing to the parent, 2) are levered ~7x with declining earnings, and 3) will likely require hundreds of millions of dollars for a capital injection. The Parent is now paying out over 150% of its earnings to support a dividend it cannot afford. We expect an eventual dividend cut and write down of the full value of its U.S. assets. Without dividend support, we believe the stock may collapse, as it trades at ~20x earnings and above the peer median 2024 earnings multiple of ~16x, despite suffering negative earnings growth. 4. Franklin Covey (FC) We are long Franklin Covey, a leading employee training content provider. The business operates enterprise and education segments. In 2016, the business transitioned from its a la carte offerings to a subscription model. This bundled subscription plans, “All Access Pass” (AAP) for enterprise and “Leader in Me” (LIM) for education, represent over 70% of revenues. Shares were negatively impacted during the first quarter after it became known that a few larger enterprise clients did not renew, due to cost cuts across their organization as the macro environment worsened. Despite this, the Company maintained guidance as other areas of the business, including education and international/China, remained strong. Organic top line growth is fueled by hiring incremental sales reps (“Client Partners”), where they continue to see attractive financial benefits of incremental hires. With the combination of incremental margins significantly above the current ~14%, and multiple levers for efficiency improvements, we believe the Company has the potential to approach high teens EBITDA margins over the next few years. Based on our analysis, the Company trades above a 9% normalized 2024 free cash flow yield. 5. Canadian Retail Short We believe, after reporting a better-than-expected quarter, the retailer is set to disappoint with slower-than-expected growth and lower margins. Revenue per square foot, 30% above pre-covid levels, has begun to decelerate while inventories have ballooned. This comes when U.S. peers are working to tighten up bloated inventory levels and could lead to margin contraction while revenue slows. As discussed in our 2022 third quarter letter, a material portion of operating income is produced by its financial services segment, which has performed stronger than peers, but adds additional risk as the health of the Canadian consumer deteriorates. Update on Select Positions Long: GasLog Partners (GLOP) GasLog is a Master Limited Partnership (MLP) that received a buyout offer from its General Partner. This was a common theme last year as initial offers were often raised anywhere from 2040%. On April 6th, GasLog raised its offer from $7.70 to $8.65, a mere 12% increase. While precedents are in the ballpark of ~8x EBITDA, the current offer represents 5.2x 2023 estimates and 5.9x 2024 estimates. We believe the current offer remains significantly below fair value and expect a higher bid from its General Partner. At the current price of $8.65, Tourlite plans to vote against the deal and recommends other shareholders to do the same. On April 19, 2023, we sent a letter to the Board of Directors of GasLog to express our view. The full letter can be found on tourlitecapital.com. Short: Retail Chain We are short a business that provides discounted offerings to lower-end demographics. When we began shorting this business, it traded close to 45x earnings and still trades close to 30x 2023 estimates. You might think at that multiple you are getting a high growth business, but in reality, this is a business with decelerating low single digits same-store-sales (SSS) growth. While high inflation for its products was a tailwind to SSS, this trend is shifting and will provide a headwind which we believe is unlikely to be offset by volume growth. Short: Consumer Roll-up The roll-up business, built using leverage to acquire unrelated consumer products, owns multiple brands past their primes and is experiencing declining growth. We believe the current high cost of debt has shut off the potential M&A pipeline for these low-return assets. While at face value free cash flow can look appealing, it excludes acquisition cost which has been used to fuel growth. The lack of future acquisitions will likely expose the true earnings power which has historically been masked by M&A accounting. We believe normalized earnings to be approximately half its current GAAP earnings. Automotive Basket Shorts Early in the quarter, we covered most of this basket at a profit. Combined, this basket was the largest contributor to performance in 2022. We believe many of our concerns are now priced into the stock prices and eventual rate cuts could provide a tailwind for some of these longer-duration assets. Market Outlook We continue to see the same downside risk to earnings in the event of economic contraction. To update our analysis from our prior letters, the S&P 500 returned -18% and the NASDAQ Composite declined -33% in 2022. Since the peak in January 2022, consensus estimates for the S&P 500 Ex-Energy have declined -13% for 2023 and -12% for 2024. Current consensus estimates imply a year-over-year increase of ~2% for 2023 and ~12% for 2024.    As the macro theme continues to shift from inflation to recession and earnings come into greater focus, we continue to believe there should be greater dispersion among share prices. We see continued opportunity for fundamental stock picking. We are hearing an interesting theme in the market from speaking with numerous management teams. We find a large disparity between those we find to be “macro aware” versus “macro unaware”. This applies in areas from company guidance to managing cost structure. For example, we follow two consumer businesses within the same subsector, selling to a similar customer base, both with very high demand. The experienced management team is focused on controlled growth, reducing inventory, and managing its cost structure. The younger management team, having never run a business though a recession, continue to flood inventory into sales channels and raise guidance into the highly expected economic slowdown. Additional Updates In February, I was interviewed by Edwin Dorsey, the writer of the “The Bear Cave” newsletter for his “Sunday’s Idea Brunch” newsletter.17 A copy of my interview with Edwin and my December interview with Hidden Value Stock can be found on our website. Thank you for your trust and support. Please feel free to reach out to me with any questions. Sincerely, Jeffrey G. Cherkin IMPORTANT NOTES This letter is being furnished by Tourlite Capital Management, LP (“Tourlite”) on a confidential basis to recipient and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to sell or an offer to buy any securities, investment products or investment advisory services. Such an offer or solicitation of an investment in Tourlite Fund, LP (the “Fund”) may be made only by delivery of the Fund’s confidential offering documents that contain a description of the material terms relating to such investment, of which this letter is not a part. The information and opinions expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only, are as of the date indicated, are summary in nature, are not complete, are subject to change and should not be relied upon by any person in making an investment decision. An investment in the Fund is speculative due to a variety of risks and considerations as are detailed in the confidential offering documents of the Fund, and this letter is qualified in their entirety by the more complete information contained therein. This letter is strictly confidential, and the information contained herein or provided herewith may not be disclosed or distributed by the recipient to any other person (other than the recipient’s affiliates, partners, members, directors, officers, employees and advisors and other agents who have a legitimate need for such information in connection with evaluating the recipient’s investment). Your receipt and review of this letter constitutes your agreement to comply with these provisions. An investment in the Fund involves a significant degree of risk, and there can be no assurance that its investment objectives will be achieved or that its investments will be profitable. This letter contains various estimates, targets and projections that are based upon various assumptions made as of the date such estimates, targets or projections were developed. Actual realized returns on unrealized investments and proceeds will depend upon various factors including, but not limited to, future operating results, the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of any disposition, any related transaction, operational and other costs and the timing and manner of sale. While estimates, targets and projections provided herein are believed to be reasonable approximations based upon available information available to Tourlite as of the date of this letter, no guarantee or assurance can be provided as to their accuracy or that such estimates, targets or projections will be achieved or met. Unless otherwise noted, the performance results of the Fund included in this letter are presented on a net-of-fees basis and reflect the deduction of, among other things, underlying management and performance fees and expenses as well as brokerage and/or custodial fees and expenses. Performance results also include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Certain of the performance information presented in this letter are unaudited estimates based upon the information available to Tourlite as of the date hereof, and are subject to subsequent revision as a result of the Fund’s audit. An investor’s actual performance and actual fees may differ from the performance information shown due to, among other factors, capital contributions, withdrawals and eligibility to participate in “new issues.” The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance or profitability. References to Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Bloomberg and other indices herein are for informational and general comparative purposes only. There are significant differences between such indices and the investment program of the Fund. The Fund does not invest in all or necessarily any significant portion of the securities, industries or strategies represented by such indices. References to indices do not suggest that the Fund will, or is likely to, achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to such indices. Certain information set forth in this letter is based upon information obtained from various third parties believed by Tourlite to be reliable. Neither Tourlite nor any of its affiliates has independently verified any such information and they shall not have any liability associated with the inaccuracy or inadequacy thereof. This letter and the accompanying discussion include forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, including any statements that relate to future market conditions, results, operations, strategies or other future conditions or developments and any statements regarding objectives, opportunities, positioning or prospects. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon speculation, expectations, estimates and assumptions that are inherently unreliable and subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Forward-looking statements are not a promise or guaranty about future events. The information in this letter is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, or tax advice or investment recommendations. Each recipient should consult its own tax, legal, accounting, financial, or other advisors about the issues discussed herein. Footnotes 1 Any net returns presented herein reflect the returns of the Fund assuming an investor “since inception”, with no subsequent capital contributions or withdrawals. These returns are not necessarily indicative of your net returns in the Fund, and you should follow-up with Tourlite if you have any questions about the returns presented herein 2 Bloomberg Total Return 3 Approximate exposure based on portfolio construction at beginning of April 2023 4 Beta-adjusted exposures are calculated relative to the S&P 500 based on three-months of historical daily returns 5 Index/hedges includes index options 6 Event driven/special situation investments, equity options. Dollar exposure represents gross and beta represents net 7 Other includes currency hedges and other trading costs. Borrow cost included in short return 8 Industry gross exposure 9 Other sectors represent healthcare and real estate 10 Approximate exposure based on portfolio construction at beginning of April 2023 11 Beta-adjusted exposures are calculated relative to the S&P 500 based on three-months of historical daily returns 12 Performance of short portfolio is relative to the inverse of selected Index 13 Total return includes dividends 14 Bloomberg data. Trailing EPS except for current period 15 SPX and multiple represents October 2022 lows. EPS represents March 2023 16 S&P 500 Ex-Energy 17 The Bear Cave, Sunday’s Idea Brunch Originally Posted on Reddit.com Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2337100276"}