The Athex Composite has outperformed the S&P 500 by 32% since our recommendation.
Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty ImagesIn my Dec. 9, 2022, column, I recommended buying the South Africa-focused FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index, which generated a buy signal after gold had triggered a buy signal on Nov. 8 at $1,675 an ounce.
Gold soared, and we took profits on half of the position at $2,008 on April 7 for a 20% gain—outperforming the S&P 500 index by 10%. Unfortunately, the South African index declined 4%. Adjusted into dollars, the FTSE/JSE African All Share Index lagged the S&P 500 by 16%. Because the South African index’s relative strength faded vs. the U.S. index, it’s time to sell and take our lumps. Mea culpa.
By contrast, I recommend sticking with Greece. I recommended buying the Athex Composite Index in my Nov. 15 column (after urging that my Institutional Investor clients do so on Oct. 27). Fortunately, Greece has been one of the best global stock indexes since then, surging 35%. Adjusted into dollars, the Athex Composite outperformed the S&P 500 by 32%.
I recommended the Greek stock market because of its outstanding relative strength in the face of a higher U.S. dollar—the only international market to achieve that feat—and because of its strategic importance. Piraeus is the largest deepwater port in the Mediterranean Sea. Jack Denton’s must-read Economy column in the latest issue of Barron’s makes a strong bullish case for Greece’s outlook.
Andrew Addison is the author of The Institutional View, a research service that focuses on technical analysis.
Write to editors@barrons.com
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