小摩：若美联储不降息，美股将在今年下半年陷入困境

智通财经2023-06-22

摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovic的看跌预测并不一致，但他仍重申了其防御观点，并警告称，商业环境恶化和消费者需求放缓等因素表明，经济衰退即将到来，可能会阻碍美股今年的反弹。Marko Kolanovic周四在一份报告中表示：“在股市...

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lcGoh
2023-06-23
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Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovic的看跌预测并不一致，但他仍重申了其防御观点，并警告称，商业环境恶化和消费者需求放缓等因素表明，经济衰退即将到来，可能会阻碍美股今年的反弹。Marko Kolanovic周四在一份报告中表示：“在股市方面，美联储没有先发制人地转向宽松政策，而是暗示年底还会再加息两次。我们预计下半年美股将面临更具挑战性的宏观背景，在股市大幅重估的同时，消费趋势将趋软。”他警告称，多重扩张和定价能力的削弱使得美股的风险回报缺乏吸引力。他补充称，另一个令人担忧的因素是，在潜在的经济衰退到来之前，“投资者日益自满”，“简而言之，另一个未知的风险重新浮出水面的风险很高”。华尔街对美股前景的观点分歧正在加剧。除了Marko Kolanovic之外，华尔街知名空头、摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson坚持其看空美股大盘的观点，并在近期的报告中进一步强调企业盈利衰退将持续的观点。去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美银策略分析师Michael Hartnett也坚持看空美股。他认为，美股上涨的逻辑站不住，最近“对第一季度经济衰退的恐惧”正在转变为“对第二季度金发姑娘的贪婪”。不过，高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin则对美股未来走势持乐观态度。David Kostin表示，标普500指数近期的这一涨势预计将扩大到科技股以外，因为“之前大幅涨幅大幅收窄之后，市场将对科技股进行更广泛的估值重估”。对于美股后续仍将上涨的逻辑，David Kostin给出了两点逻辑支撑，除了经济衰退概率缩小给美股带来强劲的上涨动力之外，另一个理由是AI全面普及为企业利润增速提供重要支持。作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一的美国银行首席策略分析师Savita Subramanian也一改此前看空美股的说法，称困扰美股的熊市已经正式结束，未来还有继续反弹的空间。Savita Subramanian的分析显示，自1950年代以来的数据显示，在92%的时间里，标普500指数在实现超过20%的反弹后，在12个月内延续了上涨势头。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":190248855609608,"gmtCreate":1687473207431,"gmtModify":1687473210898,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583111190875685","authorIdStr":"3583111190875685"},"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248855609608","repostId":2345757673,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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