In Digital Media Earnings Look, It's Spotify Over Netflix for KeyBanc

seekingalpha2023-07-17

Two digital media companies have been materially outperforming their legacy media peers this year -- but heading into second-quarter earnings, KeyBanc likes Spotify over Netflix for continued upside....

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Discovery, Paramount , Comcast , Universal Music and Warner Music Group  have lagged in 2023 behind the showings of Netflix and Spotify, up 50% and up 110% respectively, analyst Justin Patterson notes.That measure holds not only year-to-date, but Netflix and Spotify have also outperformed those companies and the overall market since the start of the second quarter as well.The stocks have benefited from streaming media catalysts: In Netflix's case, the advent of its password crackdown (paid sharing) and the revenue stream it promises -- and for Spotify it includes cost cuts, pricing changes and the introduction of new plan types.But Patterson prefers Spotify (Overweight rating) based on a belief that many investors still doubt: that the company can achieve profitability in 2024 and beyond.As for Netflix (Sector Weight), \"by contrast, we believe investors are already pricing in a [free cash flow] inflection from paid sharing and may be overly optimistic about comping this unique event in 2024.\"He's reflecting the impact of paid sharing on Netflix by boosting expected 2023 revenue by 1% and 2024 by 2%, and raising expected earnings per share by 5% and 6% respectively. 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