North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Stall Ahead of ADP Jobs Data

Dow Jones2023-08-30

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

ADP National Employment Report for August; 2Q Preliminary Estimate for GDP; Pending Home Sales for July; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Following Donald Trump, GOP Candidates Talk Tough on Trade

- AI Startup Buzz Is Facing a Reality Check

- RIP Buzzy ETFs: Metaverse, Gen-Z Funds Top List of Casualties

- CNN Is Expected to Tap Ex-New York Times Chief Mark Thompson as CEO

Follow WSJ market coverage here

Opening Call:

Stock futures were slightly softer on Wednesday as the latest rally stalled with bond yields nudging higher.

"Yesterday was a typical 'bad news is good news' day. Risk sentiment in the U.S. and across the globe was boosted by an unexpected dip in job openings[...], and an unexpected fall in consumer confidence in August," Swissquote Bank said.

"The weak data pushed the Federal Reserve hawks to the sidelines, and bolstered the expectation of a pause in September, and tilted the probabilities in favor of a no hike in November, as well."

Traders will be keen to see whether the ADP report on private sector employment during August confirms or confounds this narrative.

More important data catalysts, the PCE inflation index and nonfarm payrolls report, will be published Thursday and Friday respectively.

Pre-Market Movers

Ambarella fell 19% after its forecast for third-quarter revenue was well below analysts' expectations.

Box cut its revenue and earnings guidance for the year, citing pressure on IT budgets. Shares fell 9.5%.

Coinbase fell 0.9% premarket after surging 15% in the previous session following an appeals court ruling that said the SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale Investments' application for a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise beat Wall Street forecasts for the most-recent quarter but gave disappointing revenue guidance for the current period. Shares were down 0.2%.

HP Inc. fell 9% in premarket trading after trimming its outlook for fiscal 2023.

Nvidia was down 0.4% in premarket trading after shares of the graphics chip maker closed at a record high of $487.84, up 4.2%.

Tesla fell 1.5% premarket.

Texas Instruments fell 2%. Shares were downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein with an unchanged price target of $145.

VinFast Auto was rising 7% premarket.

Forex:

Trading in the EUR/USD currency pair has remained volatile, mainly due to the current lack of clear guidance from central banks on the interest-rate outlook, DZ Bank Research said.

"Central banks are currently at the turning point of their policy and will act purely data-dependent in the coming weeks and months," which is leading to significant swings in the spot rate, depending on data outcomes, it said.

On Wednesday, German inflation data and the ADP jobs report could influence the EUR/USD rate, DZ Bank Research added.

Energy:

A broad risk on move across markets driven by shifting expectations of the Fed's next steps was helping lift oil prices.

Plus, the API reportedly said U.S. crude stockpiles slumped, pointing to tightness in the market.

The Energy Department will release official stockpile figures later on Wednesday, which are forecast to show a far smaller 2 million barrel drawdown.

Elsewhere, producer and OPEC member, Gabon has become the latest African nation to suffer a military coup after a group of officers said they had seized control of the government.

The coup and the threat of disruptions to Gabon's oil exports were supporting oil prices, but only modestly as the nation is a minor OPEC producer, DNB Markets said. Read more .

Metals:

Base metals and gold prices struggled in early London trading, as weaker-than-expected U.S. data added to market uncertainty.

"The July JOLTS survey suggests a further easing in labor demand and supports the case for the FOMC to hold the Fed Funds rate steady at its September meeting," Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

CBA's base case is for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, though this could change if hiring rises.

Read Manganese Prices Might Spike as Eramet Suspends Mining Operations Over Gabon Coup

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

VinFast Stock Plunges, Wiping Out $90 Billion in Market Value

The VinFast Auto trading saga continues to get more and more interesting. Shares of the Vietnamese EV start-up snapped a six-day winning streak, falling 44% Tuesday, wiping out some $90 billion in market value.

VinFast's controlling shareholder Pham Nhat Vuong lost about $67 billion in paper wealth. At Monday's close, his VinFast stake was worth roughly $141 billion, enough to place him just below Jeff Bezos on Bloomberg's list of richest humans. At Tuesday's close, his stake was worth about $74 billion, placing him just above Jim Walton, the son of Walmart $(WMT)$ founder Sam Walton.

   
 
 

3M Just Agreed to a $6 Billion Settlement. More Lawsuits Await.

3M reached a $6 billion settlement this week to end the largest single mass tort in U.S. history and agreed in June to pay up to $12.5 billion to resolve litigation on so-called forever chemicals.

But its legal troubles are far from over, clouding the prospects of one of the U.S.'s best-known manufacturers.

   
 
 

Manufacturers Leaving China Find a Home With Indian Startups

BENGALURU, India- In early 2020, as the pandemic was shutting down global commerce, a Pennsylvania company was having trouble getting its usual steel parts out of China. It stumbled on another possible option-in India.

Zetwerk, a two-year-old startup connecting customers and manufacturers within the country, had never handled a U.S. order, but tapped its network of suppliers and delivered the parts. It is now a provider of everything from nail clippers to steel frames for U.S. customers, and is valued at $2.7 billion, with funding from Greenoaks Capital, Lightspeed India, Peak XV Partners and others.

   
 
 

Glynn's Take: Australia's Cooling Inflation Opens Door to Early 2024 Rate Cuts

SYDNEY-Australia's inflation readings continued to cool rapidly for July and should be shifting the conversation in financial markets away from whether the peak in interest rates has been reached, to a far bigger discussion about the timing of coming interest-rate cuts.

The monthly consumer-price index rose 4.9% in the 12 months to July, well below the expected rise of 5.2%, and compares with an increase of 5.4% over the year to June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The stellar July result compares with a peak in December of an 8.4% increase.

   
 
 

Military Officers Claim They Have Ousted Gabon's President

A group of officers in the central African nation of Gabon said Wednesday that they had seized control of the government, the latest military rebellion in a former French colony and Western military ally on the continent.

The officers' announcement, made on national television channel Gabon 24, came shortly after President Ali Bongo, whose family has ruled the country since 1967, was declared the winner of Saturday's presidential election with 64% of the vote. Local opposition parties have contested the results, which handed 64-year-old Bongo a third term in office.

   
 
 

Ukrainian Drones Strike Deep Inside Russia, Hitting Military Airfield, Other Targets

Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on military targets across Russia since the war began, disabling four military aircraft in a strike on the Pskov air base, as Moscow unleashed the most sustained missile barrage on the Ukrainian capital in months.

While Ukraine lacks the long-range cruise and ballistic missiles that Russia frequently fires into Ukrainian cities, destroying power stations, hotels, ports and residential buildings, Kyiv has developed an increasingly efficient force of domestically engineered strike drones that can travel several hundred miles into Russia.

   
 
 

Write to ina.kreutz@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

National Bank of Canada 3Q

VersaBank 3Q

Economic Calendar:

Nothing scheduled

   
 
 

Expected Major Events for Wednesday

00:30/JPN: Jul Detailed Import & Export Statistics

05:00/JPN: Aug Consumer Confidence Survey

05:30/GER: Aug North Rhine Westphalia CPI

06:00/GER: Jul Foreign trade price indices

08:00/ITA: Aug Consumer Confidence Survey

08:00/ITA: Aug Business Confidence Survey

08:00/GER: Aug Bavaria CPI

08:00/GER: Aug Hesse CPI

08:00/GER: Aug Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI

08:00/GER: Aug Brandenburg CPI

08:30/UK: Jul Bank of England effective interest rates

08:30/UK: Jul Monetary & Financial Statistics

08:30/UK: Jul Money and Credit - Lending to Individuals, Lending to Businesses, Broad Money and Credit

09:00/ITA: Jun Industrial turnover

09:00/GER: Aug Saxony CPI

11:00/US: 08/25 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

12:00/GER: Aug Provisional CPI

12:15/US: Aug ADP National Employment Report

12:30/US: 2Q Preliminary Corporate Profits

12:30/US: 2Q 2nd estimate GDP

12:30/US: Jul Advance Economic Indicators Report

14:00/US: Jul Pending Home Sales Index

14:00/US: Jul Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment

14:30/US: 08/25 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

23:01/UK: Jul UK monthly automotive manufacturing figures

23:01/UK: Aug CBI Growth Indicator Survey

23:50/JPN: Jul Preliminary Retail Sales

23:50/JPN: Jul Preliminary Industrial Production

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

Expected Earnings for Wednesday

5E Advanced Materials Inc (FEAM) is expected to report for 4Q.

AppHarvest Inc (APPHQ) is expected to report for 2Q.

BQE Water Inc (BQE.V) is expected to report for 2Q.

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBYQ) is expected to report $0.01 for 1Q.

Brown-Forman Corp - B Share (BFA,BFB) is expected to report $0.52 for 1Q.

Chewy Inc $(CHWY)$ is expected to report for 2Q.

Conn's $(CONN)$ is expected to report $-1.53 for 2Q.

Contango ORE Inc $(CTGO)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Cooper Companies Inc $(COO)$ is expected to report $2.54 for 3Q.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

August 30, 2023 05:56 ET (09:56 GMT)

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