Does Alibaba Have the Potential to Rally 50.75% as Wall Street Analysts Expect?

Zacks2023-09-07

Alibaba closed the last trading session at $94.45, plat over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any ...

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Ng Wee Guan
2023-09-07
Ng Wee Guan
People were buying at $300 2 years ago and some even predicted it was going to be $1000 stock! This article is too pessimistic.

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In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zacks.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"阿里巴巴-SW是否有像华尔街分析师预期的那样反弹50.75%的潜力？","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.6},"content_text":"Alibaba closed the last trading session at $94.45, plat over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $142.38 indicates a 50.8% upside potential.The mean estimate comprises 16 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $22.10. While the lowest estimate of $100 indicates a 5.7% increase from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects the stock to surge 97.6% to reach $187. It's very important to note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.While the consensus price target is a much-coveted metric for investors, solely banking on this metric to make an investment decision may not be wise at all. That's because the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable.However, an impressive consensus price target is not the only factor that indicates a potential upside in BABA. This view is strengthened by the agreement among analysts that the company will report better earnings than what they estimated earlier. Though a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't give any idea as to how much the stock could surge, it has proven effective in predicting an upside.Here's What You Should Know About Analysts' Price TargetsAccording to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.Why BABA Could Witness a Solid UpsideAnalysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. That's because empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 16.1% over the past month, as three estimates have gone higher compared to no negative revision.Moreover, BABA currently has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), which means it is in the top 5% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term.Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much BABA could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":217262838210696,"gmtCreate":1694066035220,"gmtModify":1694066558022,"author":{"id":"4155806237276522","authorId":"4155806237276522","name":"Ng Wee Guan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4155806237276522","idStr":"4155806237276522"},"htmlText":"People were buying at $300 2 years ago and some even predicted it was going to be $1000 stock! This article is too pessimistic.","listText":"People were buying at $300 2 years ago and some even predicted it was going to be $1000 stock! This article is too pessimistic.","text":"People were buying at $300 2 years ago and some even predicted it was going to be $1000 stock! This article is too pessimistic.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/217262838210696","repostId":2365078802,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":24,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2365078802"}