Palantir: What Are You Waiting For?

Seeking Alpha2023-09-16

Palantir is a highly-polarizing battleground stock with significant growth potential.Palantir is under-appreciated by the market, while it has established itself as a global leader in AI/ML platforms....

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Comments

selwyn
2023-09-17
selwyn
Thanks
AdamAniQAzem
2023-09-16
AdamAniQAzem
wait for buy signal
yobobs
2023-09-16
yobobs
Yeah.. auto buy on dips
HLPA
2023-09-16
HLPA
Buy on the dips each time and you cannot go wrong
cxyhb
2023-09-16
cxyhb
Waiting for Christmas
Coldastone17
2023-09-16
Coldastone17
Its time to buy and wait
- Branda Maris:
  4, 8, 7, 3, 2, 1, 0, 4, 8, 0, 4
  Write Via WA/pp
- Branda Maris:
  Yes But with A Good Trader

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Either you love the company, or you hate it. Additionally, many market participants may need clarification about Palantir and what the company does. Many investors are on the sidelines and could join the party later when the stock is at a much higher price.Palantir reminds me a lot of Tesla (TSLA). I went long Tesla's stock in 2013 and have been invested in one form or another ever since. Tesla was (arguably) the most significant battleground stock of all time, which I wrote about consistently over the last six years. I see many similarities between Tesla and Palantir. Both companies are market leaders at the cutting edge of their respective industries with remarkable growth potential ahead.Also, many market participants believe these companies are overvalued and don't recognize the long-term revenue growth potential and profitability prospects for these firms. The primary difference is that Palantir may be where Tesla was about five years ago before its stock appreciated by nearly 2,000%.I'm not suggesting that Palantir will shoot up to $300 anytime soon. Nevertheless, Palantir has much more potential than the market expects. Due to its leading position in AI and remarkable growth opportunities in its government and private sector, Palantir's stock could easily be around $50 in 1-3 years and may go much higher afterward.So, what are you waiting for?Palantir is one of the most unique monopolistic-style AI market-leading companies operating in a blue-ocean atmosphere globally. Moreover, Palantir is substantially under-appreciated by the market and could expand into one of the most dominant companies in the software space.Palantir - Harvard's UnicornIn 2015, Harvard wrote about Palantir, calling it the \"hottest unicorn you've never heard of.\" Fast forward eight years and just about everyone has heard of Palantir. The remarkable thing is that even back then, Palantir had a $20 billion valuation, servicing clients like the CIA, NSA, U.S. Army, and other essential government agencies.In 2016, Palantir already had a firm seat at the big table. President-Elect Donald Trump met with the tech industry leaders at Trump Tower in New York. Seated around the table were tech visionary leaders like Larry Page, Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Peter Theil, and others. However, seated directly across from Mr. Trump was a relatively unknown 49-year-old Ph.D. named Alex Karp (Palantir's CEO).Palantir was born in the wake of the 2001 terror attacks, was funded by a CIA venture arm, and initially enabled crucial U.S. intelligence agencies to combat terrorism and other threats. However, over time, Palantir has become far more than a U.S. government contractor, now working with other governments and establishing a firm foothold in the private sector. Furthermore, Palantir has established itself as a global leader in A.I. technology, implying its growth runway is vast and its profitability potential is massive.Palantir's Remarkable AI PotentialPalantir's Gotham, Apollo, and Foundry programs already were market-leading software products before the company's substantial advancements in AI. Now, with the recent introduction of Palantir's artificial intelligence platform, \"AIP,\" users can leverage the power of AI to solve the most significant problems facing their enterprises. AIP offers capabilities powered by large language models (LLMs) to various applications. Moreover, customers don't need to change anything as Palantir's AIP seamlessly layers on top of its existing software programs.Palantir's platforms are used throughout the public, private, and non-profit sectors. Palantir enables organizations to quickly implement solutions to the most challenging problems they face, allowing them to optimize operations, often leading to increased revenues and improved profitability.Some of Palantir's offerings include:Anti-money launderingApplied customer intelligenceArtificial intelligence and machine learningConsumer goodsCryptocurrencyData protectionDefenseEcosystemEdge AIEnergyFederal healthFinancial servicesHospital operationsIntelligenceAnd much morePalantir is not just another software company. As Harvard stated years ago, Palantir is a \"secretive unicorn.\" However, now Palantir is a monopoly operating in a blue ocean atmosphere with limitless potential. Its category-defining technology has enabled it to become a global leader in AI/ML platforms. Moreover, Palantir was ranked No. 1 in a worldwide artificial intelligence software study in market share and revenue. We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution, and Palantir should become one of the greatest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom in the coming years.The Results Speak For ThemselvesEPS growth (static.seekingalpha.com)Palantir recorded its third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Moreover, we see a massive improvement over the nine-cent loss we saw in the same quarter one year ago.Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)Palantir achieved 20% YoY U.S. commercial revenue growth and 10% U.S. government revenue growth. Also, we must consider that this significant growth occurs during a high-interest rate and low-growth economic environment, and sales growth should increase considerably once the transitory slowdown concludes.Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com)The remarkable factor is that while U.S. government growth increased by 10% from last year, total government growth came in at 15%. Therefore, Palantir is experiencing increasing growth with international governments, implying that international government growth should continue expanding, and revenue growth could increase.Additionally, we're seeing lower growth in the international commercial segment. However, this phenomenon should be transitory and is likely correlated with slow global growth and relatively limited commercial exposure to Palantir platforms outside the U.S. Nonetheless, we should see a re-acceleration in international commercial development as the global economy improves and exposure to Palantir software solutions increases in commercial markets outside the U.S.Customer count and billings (static.seekingalpha.com)Despite Palantir's transitory slowdown in revenue growth, customer count increased by 38% YoY, and billings surged by 52% over the same quarter one year ago. Therefore, we should see a substantial acceleration in revenue growth in the coming years and future quarters. I expect Palantir's sales growth to return to 25%-30% as the company advances in future years.I'm Not Worried About Dilution, And You Shouldn't BeSome market participants have expressed concern about dilution in Palantir's stock. However, this issue has been overblown and taken out of context. Due to SBC, Palantir's share count surged after going public. However, many companies experience a similar dynamic after their IPO. Share count has remained relatively steady for years, increasing by about 15% over the last two years. Moreover, SBC should continue to become less significant as Palantir grows revenues in the coming years. Furthermore, Palantir announced a $1 billion buyback program during its latest earnings report.The Stock Buyback is a Huge Plus for ShareholdersSome market participants claim that the buyback is harmful and that a company focusing on growth should not buy back its stock. However, Palantir is different from your ordinary company, and the buyback is a massive vote of confidence by high-level management in Palantir. Palantir's leadership is highly confident in the company's future. Its stock price is still meager, as Palantir's high probability for considerable outperformance is not factored into its stock price at this stage. Furthermore, the buyback has nothing to do with Palantir's growth trajectory, as the company can continue expanding while buying back shares.Palantir - Bullish Technical Set-UpPLTR (StockCharts.com)Palantir's technical image is highly constructive here. We see a similar pattern in early 2023 before the massive run-up in Palantir's stock. Therefore, we could see another substantial rally toward the $20-25 range once the current pullback/consolidation phase ends. Palantir's stock got highly overbought as it surged from about $7 to $20, but we've seen a constructive correction since then. We're seeing improving momentum, and the 50-day MA crossed decisively over the 200-day MA, a bullish long-term technical dynamic.The Market is Behind The Curve On PalantirRevenues Should Top EstimatesRevenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)I rarely see the market so far behind the curve on a company, but a name that quickly comes to mind is Tesla. Tesla outperformed most revenue and EPS estimates as it transitioned into one of the most prominent global companies several years back. Palantir is in a similar spot as the market underestimates its future revenue growth. Instead of the projected 20% sales growth, Palantir could provide 25%-30% revenue growth as the global economy stabilizes and returns to growth. Palantir also should benefit significantly from a lower interest rate environment in the future, potentially delivering 30%-plus annual growth.EPS Growth Should Exceed ExpectationsEPS estimates (SeekingAlpha.com)We see a similar depressed EPS growth dynamic when considering consensus estimates for future years. Palantir is just starting to become profitable; its growth margin is 81%. Therefore, as Palantir's revenues increase more rapidly than expected, its profitability should expand faster than current EPS estimates imply. Instead of the anticipated 20%-30% EPS growth rate, we could see EPS expansion of around 35%-45% in future years. This dynamic of better-than-expected revenue growth and higher-than-anticipated EPS expansion should enable Palantir to maintain a relatively high forward P/E multiple of around 50-60, boosting its stock price much higher as we advance.Here's Where Palantir's Stock Could Be In Future YearsYear2024202520262027202820292030Revenue Bs$2.85$3.6$4.62$5.96$7.75$10$12.8Revenue growth28%30%28%29%30%29%28%EPS$0.33$0.48$0.67$0.95$1.32$1.82$2.50EPS growth43%44%42%41%39%38%37%Forward P/E55575856575452Stock price$26$38$55$74$104$135$175Source: The Financial ProphetRisks to PalantirDespite my bullish projections, Palantir faces several risks. The company may grow slower than my forecast suggests, and its profitability may be lower than expected. Also, unknown factors regarding the broader economy could impact Palantir's shares. Economic growth could be slower than expected, leading to lower sales growth for Palantir as we advance. Investors should investigate these and other risk factors before committing capital to an investment in Palantir.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":220716506734680,"gmtCreate":1694907262864,"gmtModify":1694907266045,"author":{"id":"3555362771681553","authorId":"3555362771681553","name":"selwyn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7e6473ec2cec348d167d7d95fbdb76c","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220716506734680","repostId":2367285643,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":220595908517896,"gmtCreate":1694877658359,"gmtModify":1694877662961,"author":{"id":"4093486654879930","authorId":"4093486654879930","name":"AdamAniQAzem","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31958a5ea6c26b273b1d7367c72a0674","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"wait for buy signal","listText":"wait for buy signal","text":"wait for buy signal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220595908517896","repostId":2367285643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":220531640242208,"gmtCreate":1694861979551,"gmtModify":1694861983769,"author":{"id":"4136794554654892","authorId":"4136794554654892","name":"yobobs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yeah.. auto buy on dips","listText":"Yeah.. auto buy on dips","text":"Yeah.. auto buy on dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220531640242208","repostId":2367285643,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":220528425750624,"gmtCreate":1694861344689,"gmtModify":1694861349316,"author":{"id":"3569274903458035","authorId":"3569274903458035","name":"HLPA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e7b987a9127c5a47dbc3ae02db548b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Buy on the dips each time and you cannot go wrong","listText":"Buy on the dips each time and you cannot go wrong","text":"Buy on the dips each time and you cannot go wrong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220528425750624","repostId":2367285643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":220524974116960,"gmtCreate":1694860502005,"gmtModify":1694860506144,"author":{"id":"4090664830008420","authorId":"4090664830008420","name":"cxyhb","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Waiting for Christmas&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for Christmas&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for Christmas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/220524974116960","repostId":2367285643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":220516799275056,"gmtCreate":1694858503961,"gmtModify":1694858508236,"author":{"id":"3562193648411471","authorId":"3562193648411471","name":"Coldastone17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f1bd3166de45ed68ce52aacd1ca37f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Its time to buy and wait","listText":"Its time to buy and wait","text":"Its time to buy and 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