Palantir: Tesla Moment Imminent Ahead Of Q3

Seekingalpha2023-10-22

Palantir's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, with a focus on its growth, margins, and developments in its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).AIP has been compared to Tesla's Model 3 ...

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SHERYANA
2023-10-22
SHERYANA
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Personally, AIP is what interests me the most ahead of Q3.Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform has made waves since its inception. The current AIP bootcamps the company is running have been compared to Tesla’s Model 3 launch.If this comparison is accurate, then investors would do well to position themselves ahead of earnings.From a technical perspective, I see evidence that a low could be in place, but I would happily add to my position if we can swing back down towards $12.I am not fully discarding an earning sell-off, given the tone set by Tesla (TSLA) today.In my last article, I rated PLTR a sell ahead of earnings due to the fact that we have already rallied substantially, growth was lacklustre, and technical analysis suggested a correction was needed.Now we have had that correction, and though the company still needs to prove itself, I am excited about the prospects of AIP and move to a buy rating.AIP Changes EverythingPalantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform has become a real changer in the world of software and AI.On April 7th, AIP was announced in a letter by CEO Alex Karp.AIP will allow customers to leverage the power of our existing machine learning technologies alongside the increasingly sophisticated natural language processing capabilities of the newest large language models, directly in our existing platforms, including Foundry and Gotham, which are now home to some of the most valuable privately held and industry specific data repositories in the world.Source: Alex KarpAlmost unbeknownst to the company, they had been working over the last 20 years on a technology that would take Large Language Models to the next level.Last month, Palantir hosted AIPCon, which had keynote presentations from AIP customers, including CPKC, HCA Healthcare, Cintra, Eaton and Miller’s Ale House.Since then, the company has been carrying out AIP bootcamps, which have been dubbed Palantir’s Tesla moment.Back in 2016, Tesla launched its Model 3, and it did so in a way that changed the EV industry. Electric cars were quite a foreign concept for a lot of people back then, but the Model 3 launch served to demystify this new mode of transportation, laying the foundations for mass adoption.In the same way, Palantir’s AIP bootcamps are a way of bringing AI to the masses. Over the course of five days, customers can take AIP “from 0 to use case”, as per the company’s website.Q3 OutlookLast week, Palantir announced the date for its third-quarter earnings release, which will come out on November 2nd. What can we expect, and what are the possible outcomes?PLTR Q2 press release (Palantir website)In Q2, Palantir laid out the following guidance for Q3 and full year. The company expects revenue of $553-$557 million. That’s about 4.5% QoQ growth on the high end. Operating income will stay mostly flat if it hits the low end.At the very least, Palantir will have to report GAAP net income. If it doesn’t the narrative of the lack of profitability will be back in full swing.In my opinion, though, if we want to see this rally, we need to see a beat on revenue. The company’s forecast does not promise much growth QoQ, and this could disappoint investors.With that said, I think the numbers presented around AIP could flip the earnings, even if growth and profitability disappoint. Investors will be looking at getting a better understanding of just how significant AIP will be in the future.This earnings release will reveal to us if, indeed, AIP is a game changer like the Model 3.Technical AnalysisThe technical outlook for Palantir leaves the door open for both a sell-off or a big rally following earnings, though this might change over the next week.In any case, these are the important levels I’m watching now.PLTR TA (Author's work)Palantir has completed an impulse since it struck a low at the start of the year. The stock has more than tripled since, and a pull-back/consolidation phase was inevitable.The question is, did this correction end on September 21st when we hit $13.5?From an Elliott Wave perspective, this structure would look better with another low in a C wave. This C wave could target anywhere better the 38,2% or the 61.8% retracement. With that said, the 200-day MA comes in to offer support just above $12.This would be an ideal place to add with more confidence, in my opinion.However, there’s also a chance that we won’t revisit lower lows. Notice how the distribution structure we have formed since August is very similar to what we saw when Palantir first corrected in a smaller wave 2 in March-April.In fact, we now have a good set-up to the upside, after breaking out from the green box and the 50-day MA.If Palantir is indeed finished with its correction, we should begin a path towards at least +$60. This is where the 1.272 ext of our wave (1), measured from the bottom of the wave (2), projects us.TakeawayIn conclusion, I remain very bullish long-term on Palantir, though I believe we could get a sell-off after earnings unless the company manages to beat expectations soundly. Furthermore, I expect AIP to become a large revenue contributor to the company and believe much higher prices are in store.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":233240130199664,"gmtCreate":1697950089238,"gmtModify":1697950905239,"author":{"id":"4161008686148732","authorId":"4161008686148732","name":"SHERYANA","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4161008686148732","authorIdStr":"4161008686148732"},"htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/233240130199664","repostId":2376424147,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2376424147"}