Fed Minutes Show Unity on Cautious Approach to Future Rate Hikes

Bloomberg2023-11-22

Data to clarify progress on process of reducing inflationOfficials agree Fed in position to ‘proceed carefully’Federal Reserve policymakers at their most recent meeting united around a strategy to “...

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BL9626
2023-11-22
BL9626
Old school group
MIe
2023-11-22
MIe
Fed rate hike end game now deflation trend. to soft land then rate cuts equities to the moon

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Yields on 10-year Treasuries were up 1 basis point to about 4.42%, while the S&P 500 Index was down about 0.2% on the day. The Bloomberg dollar index was little changed.Fed officials gathered in Washington for the meeting after a bond rout pushed yields on US government 10-year Treasuries over 5%, the highest in 16 years. The increase in longer-term borrowing costs startled some officials, who said tightening financial conditions were doing the work of additional rate hikes.“Participants highlighted that longer-term yields could be volatile and that the factors behind the recent increase, as well as their persistence, were uncertain,” the minutes showed. However, they also noted that “it would therefore be important to continue to monitor market developments closely.”Trader BetsBroader financial conditions have since eased, and government 10-year yields are back down to levels last seen in September. Traders have marked down the chance of any additional hikes to almost zero and are betting the Fed will start to cut rates as early as May.The committee is trying to manage the tension of two-sided risks: avoiding an overshoot on hikes that could send the economy into a recession, against failing to tighten enough to cool consumption and return the inflation rate to 2% in a timely way.“Participants noted that inflation had moderated over the past year but stressed that current inflation remained unacceptably high and well above the committee’s longer-run goal of 2%,” according to the minutes. “They also stressed that further evidence would be required for them to be confident that inflation was clearly on a path to the committee’s 2% objective.”In September, Fed officials forecast that the policy rate would rise another quarter point by the end of the year.The November meeting tied Powell’s record of 11 straight meetings without a dissent. The Fed chair, who was appointed by President Donald Trump and reappointed by President Joe Biden, has a lower average of dissents per meeting than any of his four predecessors. Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the minutes had a dovish undertone.“Whenever they talk about strength, they also talk about pockets of weakness,” Misra said.GDP rose at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the fastest pace in almost two years. Job gains remain strong, while inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred price indicator, is cooling.The personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, rose 3.7% for the year ending September, and at 2.4% on a three-month annual rate for the same month.“Inflation has given us a few head fakes,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told an IMF panel on Nov. 9. “We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of overtightening.”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":244191585050624,"gmtCreate":1700641116915,"gmtModify":1700641121072,"author":{"id":"3569469979348682","authorId":"3569469979348682","name":"BL9626","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9430968a3ee7ad2e1a4f28ec28cbfe14","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569469979348682","authorIdStr":"3569469979348682"},"htmlText":"Old school group&nbsp;","listText":"Old school group&nbsp;","text":"Old school group","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244191585050624","repostId":2385577631,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":244065275408496,"gmtCreate":1700610274351,"gmtModify":1700614900022,"author":{"id":"3577182936341023","authorId":"3577182936341023","name":"MIe","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577182936341023","authorIdStr":"3577182936341023"},"htmlText":"Fed rate hike end game now deflation trend.&nbsp;to soft land then rate cuts equities to the moon","listText":"Fed rate hike end game now deflation trend.&nbsp;to soft land then rate cuts equities to the moon","text":"Fed rate hike end game now deflation trend. to soft land then rate cuts equities to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244065275408496","repostId":2385577631,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2385577631"}