C3.ai: On The Verge Of A Massive Recovery (Rating Upgrade)

Seekingalpha2023-11-28

C3.ai investors who chased its upward surge toward its June highs suffered a decline of more than 50% before it bottomed out in October.The company is a leading enterprise AI software player well-...

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Comments

Upswing118
2023-11-28
Upswing118
Go C3 go! Give us a nice year end gift!
- Upswing118:
  yes, it's kinda speculative.
  thanks for reply.
- HLPA:
  c3ai is a losing stock really. Google it and you will realise it is an AI stock in name only, unlike the mag7 stocks

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However, there are signs that it has moved off its October lows and could be on the verge of a massive recovery.Investors looking to capitalize on the application layer of the generative AI opportunity should consider the constructive price action and valuation in AI right now.C3.ai (NYSE: AI) investors have been offered a useful lesson about the perils of chasing the artificial intelligence hype train. Notwithstanding the research corroborating the massive TAM of the market, AI has underperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) since my previous update in early September. However, there are signs that AI has bottomed out in October. In other words, AI is likely perceived as more than just another unsustainable hyped-up stock, but one that could attract increased buying fervor moving ahead.Despite that, some valuable lessons could still be gleaned from late investors who chased AI's surging run toward its June 2023 highs. Accordingly, AI topped out in mid-June at the $49 level before collapsing more than 50% over the next four months, bottoming out in October at the $23 level.AI Quant Grades (Seeking Alpha)Therefore, I believe it's reasonable to assess that much of the over-optimism from that surge has been digested with its plunge. Seeking Alpha Quant's \"B-\" valuation grade corroborates my observation, suggesting investors have likely reflected pessimism. Moreover, C3.ai is still in the early stages of capturing the massive generative AI TAM, \"with Bloomberg Intelligence estimating it will reach $1.3 trillion by 2032.\"The recent downward volatility could be attributed to C3's disappointing guidance at its first quarter or FQ1 earnings release in September. Observant investors should recall management's commentary about delaying its adjusted EPS profitability as it looks to capitalize on the near-term opportunities in its market.Accordingly, C3 no longer expects to reach adjusted EPS profitability in FQ4'24, even though it anticipates positive free cash flow by the final quarter of the current fiscal year (year ending April 2024). However, considering the substantial pipeline opportunities, I believe C3's justification for leveraging the generative AI momentum is reasonable. Accordingly, C3 stressed that it reached \"a pipeline of more than 140 qualified C3 Generative AI enterprise opportunities\" in the previous quarter. As a result, C3 achieved a pipeline scale that exceeded \"any other product introduced in the company's history.\"In addition, while the market has been enamored with Nvidia's (NVDA) substantial growth as it recorded another spectacular quarter, the applications market is still in its early innings. Based on C3's pilot phase and pipeline, it's clear that its enterprise customers are still testing and not ready to commit significant sums yet.However, the much faster deployment timeline (12 weeks) has accelerated C3's go-to motion, bolstering its ability to monetize its enterprise AI applications. Furthermore, its collaboration with hyperscalers and LLMs offers C3's customers the ability to broaden its reach to more customers, enhancing the adoption of the company's turnkey applications.Deepwater Asset Management's Doug Clinton highlighted in a recent post that \"applications often boom last because they see the impact to revenue last.\" However, Clinton reminded investors that:Companies that build the application layer often end up the biggest winners of all because they own end-customer relationships at a massive scale - Doug Clinton's blogTherefore, I believe C3 is uniquely positioned within the enterprise AI space, as demonstrated by its growing pipeline of companies. Investors should assess the conversion from pilot to production to assess the momentum of C3's strategies. We should be able to garner these insights, as C3 is scheduled to report its second quarter earnings release on December 6.AI price chart (weekly) (TradingView)AI's price chart suggests a robust bottoming process in October, helping it form a higher low price structure. Buyers returned in time to help sustain its medium-term uptrend, with AI supported above its 50-week moving average or MA (blue line).Therefore, I assessed that AI's buying sentiments have remained constructive over the past two months. As it remains well below its June highs, the risk/reward remains constructive, supported by a relatively attractive valuation.Although AI has moved past the optimal buy zone recently based on its recent October bottom, the current levels are still appropriate for investors looking to partake.Rating: Upgraded to Buy.Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. 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Give us a nice year end gift!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/246249606226144","repostId":2385932256,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":260518336463016,"gmtCreate":1704613648564,"gmtModify":1704613661182,"authorId":4087685930931350,"author":{"id":4087685930931350,"idStr":"4087685930931350","authorId":4087685930931350,"name":"Upswing118","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee810deeb4fd3c3d863b49cef1d9956","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":246249606226144,"type":1,"supId":260494269042888,"prevId":0,"content":"yes, it's kinda speculative.<br>\nthanks for reply.","text":"yes, it's kinda speculative.<br>\nthanks for reply.","html":"yes, it's kinda speculative.<br>\nthanks for reply."},{"id":260494269042888,"gmtCreate":1704607596187,"gmtModify":1704607603574,"authorId":3569274903458035,"author":{"id":3569274903458035,"idStr":"3569274903458035","authorId":3569274903458035,"name":"HLPA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e7b987a9127c5a47dbc3ae02db548b","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":246249606226144,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"c3ai is a losing stock really. 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