The Match Out: Best day in over a year as the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario gains traction

LiveWire2023-12-06

Stocks enjoyed the best one-day jump in over a year today as peak rates met solid but not spectacular growth numbers supporting the ‘goldilocks’ economic scenario, which is very bullish equities if it...

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The ASX recouped all of yesterday’s losses and some as we experienced a bottom left, top right sort of day, sessions like this are what equity investing is all about!The ASX 200 finished up +116pts/ +1.65% to 7178.Perpetual  +6.26% announced a strategic review today, not sure they need it. They could just borrow Phil King’s playbook!They’re looking at a divestment and/or demerger of the corporate trust and wealth management businesses, which would leave Perpetual as a pure-play multi-boutique asset manager. We’ve written a lot about the imbedded value here, we previously owned PPT post takeover of Pendal but sold at higher levels. This sort of restructuring has merit.Our preference turned to beaten-up Magellan  +3.57%, which rallied today on a FUM update that implies performanc","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"EVN.AU":"EVOLUTION MINING LTD","BK7511":"ESG概念","PLS.AU":"PILBARA MINERALS LTD","BK7506":"金矿股","BK7010":"特种房地产投资信托","FMG.AU":"FORTESCUE LTD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TLS.AU":"TELSTRA GROUP LTD","BK7062":"资产管理与托管银行","NSR.AU":"NATIONAL STORAGE REIT","MFG.AU":"MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LTD","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK7121":"多样化房地产活动","PDL.AU":"Pendal","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK7504":"锂钴概念","BK4588":"碎股","CNI.AU":"CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP","BK7122":"办公房地产投资信托","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7104":"黄金","BK7087":"多样化房地产投资信托v","BK7151":"自存仓储房地产信托","MTCH":"Match Group, Inc.","PPT.AU":"PERPETUAL LTD","LLC.AU":"LENDLEASE GROUP","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK7507":"资源股","BK7129":"钢铁","DXS.AU":"Dexus","BK7042":"综合电信业务","BK7510":"REITs概念","BK7154":"办公室房地产信托"},"translate_title":"比赛结束：随着“金发姑娘”场景获得牵引力，这是一年多来最好的一天","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TLS.AU":1,"CNI.AU":1,"DXS.AU":1,"EVN.AU":1,"FMG.AU":1,"LLC.AU":1,"MFG.AU":1,"MTCH":1,"NSR.AU":1,"PDL.AU":1,"PLS.AU":1,"PPT.AU":1},"content_text":"Stocks enjoyed the best one-day jump in over a year today as peak rates met solid but not spectacular growth numbers supporting the ‘goldilocks’ economic scenario, which is very bullish equities if it comes off. The ASX recouped all of yesterday’s losses and some as we experienced a bottom left, top right sort of day, sessions like this are what equity investing is all about!  \n\nThe ASX 200 finished up +116pts/ +1.65% to 7178.\nThe REITS sector (+3.21%) stormed higher, while Communications (+2.13%) & Staples (2.08%) put aside their defensive tags and ripped!\nUtilities (+0.55%), Energy (+0.76%) and Materials (+1.21%) were all up but underperformed the broader strength.\nData at 11.30 am showed GDP expanded 0.2% in the 3Q, down from 0.4%. YoY the economy expanded 2.1%, slightly ahead of forecasts.\nAussie bond yields were down ~10bps across the curve today, the 2-year now sub 4%.\nBanks & REITs were very strong,  rates have peaked but growth is holding up, a bullish combo for these sectors if data continues to support this view.\nEvolution Mining (ASX: EVN) -13.04% was hit after coming back on the boards post $525m placement at $3.80 to buy a new mine, we like the deal & we own EVN, the pullback in the SP is understandable but probably overdone.\nPerpetual (ASX: PPT) +6.26% announced a strategic review today, not sure they need it. They could just borrow Phil King’s playbook!\nThey’re looking at a divestment and/or demerger of the corporate trust and wealth management businesses, which would leave Perpetual as a pure-play multi-boutique asset manager. We’ve written a lot about the imbedded value here, we previously owned PPT post takeover of Pendal (ASX: PDL) but sold at higher levels. This sort of restructuring has merit.\nOur preference turned to beaten-up Magellan (ASX: MFG) +3.57%, which rallied today on a FUM update that implies performance was very strong in November.\nWhile Net Outflows were still ~$1bn, only $300m was retail and overall FUM went up ~$900m even with the currency up 5%. On our back-of-the-envelope numbers, it looks like the portfolio was up over ~10% on an underlying basis. We continue to see compelling value in MFG with the sum of the parts worth more than its current $1.4bn valuation.\nLithium stocks had a very interesting session, knocked early before a very strong recovery played out, Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) finished ~10% from the morning lows, down 4% to up 6% - you’ve got to take notice of that price action, particularly in a stock that is ~20% short.  \nCenturia Capital (ASX: CNI) +5.08% remains one the highest beta ways to play peak interest rates, the stock is up ~37% since 1st November, Aussie 3-year yields are down 53bps in the same period.\nOther property stocks are looking good, we own National Storage (ASX: NSR) +3.11%, Lendlease (ASX: LLC) +4.10% and Dexus (ASX: DXS) +2.99% in addition to CNI.\nEven Telstra (ASX: TLS) +1.85% rallied today!\nIron ore up ~2% in Asia but the major miners underperformed the strength – both Fortescue (FMG) & RIO near all-time highs.   \nAsian stocks traded higher, Hong Kong +1.23%, Japan +1.95% while China added +0.16% edged higher.  \nUS Futures are pricing a positive start overseas, eMinis +0.3%.\n\nASX 200 Intraday\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nASX 200 Daily\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBroker Moves\n\nCYC AU: Cyclopharm Raised to Buy at Bell Potter; PT A$4.25\nRIO LN: Rio Tinto Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 6,500 pence\nS32 AU: South32 Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT A$3.15\nSGR AU: Star Entertainment Raised to Overweight at Barrenjoey\nSTO AU: Santos Raised to Overweight at Jarden Securities; PT A$7.25\nWDS AU: Woodside Energy Raised to Neutral at Jarden Securities\nORG AU: Origin Energy Affirmed at Baa2 by Moody’s\n\n\nMajor Movers Today\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2389543083"}