KWEB And CQQQ May Offer Compelling Value Proposition In Chinese Stock Market Potential Rebound

seekingalpha2023-12-08

Chinese stocks have faced adversity in 2023, attracting contrarians and value investors looking for opportunities with underlying value.Chinese stocks are trading at depressed levels compared to their...

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Compelling Value Proposition In Chinese Stock Market Potential Rebound\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-08 08:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656687-kweb-cqqq-compelling-value-proposition-chinese-stock-market-potential-rebound><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chinese stocks have faced adversity in 2023, attracting contrarians and value investors looking for opportunities with underlying value.Chinese stocks are trading at depressed levels compared to their...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656687-kweb-cqqq-compelling-value-proposition-chinese-stock-market-potential-rebound\">Source 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(USD)"},"translate_title":"KWEB和CQQQ可能在中国股市潜在反弹中提供令人信服的价值主张","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MCHI":1,"FLCH":1,"FXI":1,"GXC":1,"IPO":1,"JD":1,"KBA":1,"KSTR":1,"KWEB":1,"KGRN":1,"MPNGF":1,"NTES":1,"PDD":1,"PGJ":1,"TCEHY":1,"TCOM":1,"YMM":1,"ECNS":1,"BIDU":1,"BEKE":1,"BABA":1,"BZ":1,"ASHR":1,"CHIQ":1,"CNYA":1,"CQQQ":1,"CXSE":1,"DIDIY":1,"FDN":0.9,"09988":0.6,"09618":0.6},"content_text":"Chinese stocks have faced adversity in 2023, attracting contrarians and value investors looking for opportunities with underlying value.Chinese stocks are trading at depressed levels compared to their historical valuations and relative to other major international markets.Chinese tech stocks, represented by ETFs like KWEB and CQQQ, offer a compelling value proposition for investors bullish on the longer-term prospects of the Chinese economy.Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images By Andrew Prochnow Chinese stocks have faced adversity in 2023, a trend that often attracts contrarians and value investors. These investors tend to overlook short-term fluctuations, focusing instead on identifying opportunities with underlying value that can thrive as market perceptions shift. A prominent China-focused ETF, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), recently marked a new 52-week low, currently trading at around $24 per share. In tandem, the technology-centric KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) is positioned toward the lower end of its 52-week range, with shares at approximately $27. Over the past year, KWEB's stock has fluctuated between $24 and $36 per share. As widely recognized, the Chinese stock market has grappled with challenges in 2023, stemming from various headwinds in the Chinese economy. Immediate concerns include a deceleration in economic growth, a sluggish Chinese real estate market, and an ongoing regulatory crackdown on corporations. The CSI 300 index in China recently hit a 4.5-year low, erasing all gains made earlier in the year. Despite a late 2022 rally driven by optimism about a post-COVID rebound, Chinese stocks couldn't sustain the positive momentum, as depicted below. Bloomberg Importantly, it's not just the absolute share prices of Chinese-focused equities that have slumped in recent months. According to MSCI data, Chinese stocks are trading at roughly 10 times 12-month forward earnings, which is well below the 10-year average of 11.30. Moreover, the valuations of Chinese stocks relative to other major international markets are also sitting at depressed levels. So far in 2023, the Shanghai Composite index is down 3%, while the S&P 500 in the United States is up roughly 20%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan is up nearly 30%. That divergence has served to temporarily expand the gap between the valuations of Chinese stocks as compared to American stocks. The latter have always traded at a richer valuation than the former, but as of now, the gap is at a multi-year extreme. Stocks in the U.S. currently trade with a 12-month forward earnings multiple of closer to 20. That means relative to 12-month forward earnings, U.S. stocks are valued at roughly twice that of their Chinese counterparts (20 vs. 10). Historically, the gap between those two countries' earnings multiples has been as narrow as 5 points, as opposed to the current gap of 10 points. If perceptions were to shift in favor of the Chinese market, the current gap could consequently narrow from 10 points to 5 points, which would require an appreciation in the value of Chinese stocks, a depreciation in the value of U.S. stocks, or a combination of both. Taken all together, the aforementioned figures indicate that Chinese stocks are trading at depressed levels in comparison to their own historical valuations, and also relative to their global peers. Some investors and traders likely view the current situation as an opportunity-especially those bullish on a near-term rebound in Chinese economic growth. Analysts at Goldman Sachs appear to count among those optimists that think better times lie ahead for the Chinese economy, as well as the Chinese financial markets. Goldman recently predicted that the Chinese CSI 300 index will appreciate by roughly 15% next year. That forecast is underpinned by an expectation that Chinese corporate earnings will increase by as much as 10% in 2024. For that to occur, China's economic growth will undoubtedly need to rebound. And based on recent data out of the Middle Kingdom, that's a real possibility. In early November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that the Chinese economy would grow at a rate of about 5.4% in 2023, which was an upside revision from the IMF's previous forecast of 5%. If that positive trend continues, Chinese stocks could easily become the new darling of the international financial markets in 2024, with a \"Chinese economic rebound\" driving fresh optimism in the Chinese stock market. Why China-Focused ETFs Represent a Better Value Proposition Than Single Stocks Looking beyond weakness in the Chinese economy, one of the biggest headwinds for the Chinese financial markets over the last several years has been the government's ongoing regulatory crackdown. The current bout of increased corporate scrutiny started back in November of 2020 when Chinese regulators stepped in at the last minute to block the initial public offering (IPO) of Ant Financial. Since that time, the regulatory net has steadily expanded-reeling in the education technology sector, the e-commerce sector, and the online gaming sector, among others. One of the early concerns was the usage of Chinese consumer data, as well as the security of that data. However, regulators have since broadened their net, and have been cracking down on skyrocketing education costs, addictive gaming behavior and excessive risk-taking in the financial industry. As many probably recall, the former executive chairman of Alibaba (BABA) Jack Ma-was one of the first to run afoul of Chinese regulators. Back in October of 2020, Ma gave a speech at an annual forum organized by the People's Bank of China and criticized the work of Chinese regulators in the financial industry, suggesting that they were too cautious and risk-averse. Ma implied that this approach was throttling innovation in the country. Not long after that speech, the Chinese government stepped in to block the initial public offering (IPO) of Ant Group. At the time, Ant Group was China's largest fintech conglomerate, and a close affiliate of Alibaba. Around that same time, Jack Ma disappeared from the public eye, and some hypothesized he had been detained by government authorities. Jack Ma did eventually resurface, but in a greatly reduced role. He has no official role at Alibaba, and no control over Ant Group. Ma accepted an honorary professorship at Hong Kong University and recently announced that he had launched a new venture known as \"Hangzhou Ma's Kitchen Food,\" which will focus on pre-packaged foods. Interestingly, Alibaba announced it was breaking up into six separate business units back in spring of 2023, shortly after Ma made his first public appearance back in Hangzhou-the same city where Ma originally founded Alibaba back in 1999. Since Mr. Ma's ill-advised speech in October of 2020, shares of Alibaba have dropped by a jaw- dropping 76%, cratering from $310/share all the way down to $73/share. This situation illustrates quite clearly how idiosyncratic risks (e.g. stock-stock specific risks) are elevated in China at this time. Underscoring that reality, a previous Chinese government probe of DiDi Global (OTCPK:DIDIY) resulted in a \"voluntary\" delisting of the company's shares from the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of Didi continue to trade over-the-counter (OTC) in the United States under the ticker DIDIY. Bloomberg No one knows for sure when the current regulatory crackdown will end, but for the time being, that means any single stock in China is potentially vulnerable to an ill-fated inquisition by the government. For this reason, investors and traders bullish on the Chinese market may want to focus their attention on exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as opposed to single stocks. ETFs are inherently less risky than single stocks because they typically invest in a large number of companies, as opposed to concentrating on a single holding. This approach diversifies risk across multiple assets, and reduces the impact of underperformance in a single asset. Fortunately, when it comes to Chinese ETFs, there's a large list to choose from. That's to be expected, considering that China possesses the second-largest economy on the planet, and also the second-largest stock market in terms of total market capitalization. Highlighted below are some of China-focused ETFs listed in the U.S. with the largest amount of assets under management (sorted by year-to-date return, best to worst):   Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ), -12%  X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR), -15%  Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ), -16%  Franklin FTSE China ETF (FLCH), -16%  iShares MSCI China A ETF (CNYA), -16%  SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC), -16%  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), -16%  iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), -17%  iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), -18%  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF (KBA), -20%  KraneShares MSCI China Clean Technology Index ETF (KGRN), -20%  KraneShares SSE Star Market 50 Index ETF (KSTR), -21%  Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ), -21%  WisdomTree China ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (CXSE), -24%  iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF (ECNS), -28%  Why KWEB and CQQQ Stand Out Among China-Focused ETFs If the Chinese economy rebounds in 2024, and fresh optimism spills over into Chinese stocks, the entire market will undoubtedly benefit from improved sentiment. After all, a rising tide floats all boats. However, certain niches will undoubtedly perform better than others. And considering recent outperformance in the U.S. tech sector, one could argue that Chinese tech stocks represent one of the most attractive segments of the broader Chinese stock market. When it comes to the Chinese tech sector, these stocks are not only the highest-capitalized Chinese issues, but they also enjoy the highest degree of name recognition. Both of those are attractive qualities when it comes to a market rebound, as investors and traders tend to gravitate toward stocks they know, and those that trade with robust liquidity. Much like the broader market, the Chinese tech sector is lagging well behind its global peers when it comes to associated valuations. According to analysts at Jeffries, the average valuation of Chinese tech companies is 14x forward price earnings, as compared to a forward price earnings of closer to 22x for their global peers. And as a result of these depressed valuations, Morningstar recently noted that \"a handful of high-quality Chinese stocks are now deeply undervalued, including tech and e-commerce giant Alibaba and entertainment and social media conglomerate Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY).\" In that same research note, Morningstar also highlighted Baidu (BIDU) and JD.com (JD) in their list of \"5 Undervalued Chinese Stocks.\" Along those same lines, a recent analysis by Nasdaq suggested that Alibaba and JD.com were among the \"3 most undervalued Chinese stocks.\" Importantly, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) counts most of the aforementioned Chinese tech stocks among its top ten holdings, as highlighted below (sorted by percent weighting):   PDD Holdings (PDD), 10.43%  Alibaba (BABA), 9.06%  Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), 8.80%  Meituan (OTCPK:MPNGF), 7.46%  NetEase (NTES), 5.13%  Baidu (BIDU), 4.95%  Full Truck Alliance (YMM), 4.12%  Trip.com (TCOM), 3.95%  Kanzhun (BZ), 3.83%  KE Holdings (BEKE), 3.81%  As evident from the above list, KWEB provides investors and traders with diversified exposure to the Chinese tech sector. In the event of a resurgence in the Chinese stock market in the upcoming months, KWEB is poised to partake in the rally while mitigating exposure to idiosyncratic risks associated with the failure of a single company. Alongside KWEB, the Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) also furnishes diversified exposure to the Chinese tech sector, albeit with slightly different holdings. Unlike KWEB, Alibaba and NetEase are not among CQQQ's top ten holdings. Instead, Tencent, PDD Holdings, and Baidu constitute three of the ETF's top four holdings, collectively representing about 25% of the total invested capital. During the Chinese stock rally at the end of the previous year, fueled by optimism about the post-COVID recovery, KWEB surged by approximately 47% between October 28, 2022, and January 27, 2023, climbing from $19 per share to $36 per share. In the same period, CQQQ soared by about 60%, rising from $32 per share to $51 per share. When Chinese stocks regain favor, these two well-diversified ETFs are likely to outperform once again. The key question, however, is precisely when this resurgence might occur. While predicting this is challenging, Goldman Sachs currently forecasts a rebound at some point in 2024. On top of that, there are 32 analysts that currently cover KWEB, and 31 of them rate KWEB shares a \"buy\" or \"hold,\" as compared to only one analyst that rates KWEB a \"sell.\" All together, the average analyst price target for KWEB is $38/share, which is about 40% higher than where KWEB shares trade today. The nice thing is that unlike U.S. tech stocks, Chinese tech stocks are already trading at depressed levels. That means the risks to the downside are arguably reduced in Chinese stocks and ETFs, as compared to their U.S. counterparts.  For all of the above reasons, KWEB and CQQQ offer a compelling value proposition for those bullish on the longer-term prospects of the Chinese economy.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2389584001"}