Alibaba: Gets Even Cheaper

Seeking Alpha2023-12-13

Alibaba's e-commerce growth rate is expected to accelerate over the next five years, driven by improved consumer sentiment and successful initiatives.The adoption of a new organizational structure is ...

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Comments

Kencom
2023-12-13
Kencom
Have confidence in Alibaba.
suthanb4u
2023-12-13
suthanb4u
It will shoot to moon in 3Q2024. Till then it will be range bound to max $100.
- PhoenixBee:
  It's gonna 69😂

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In the last article, I concluded:E-Commerce Growth Rate Acceleration: Despite facing challenges such as Covid-19 lockdowns, macro headwinds, competition, and increased regulation, Alibaba has maintained its position as a leading player in the Chinese retail e-commerce industry. Recent double-digit revenue growth in the Taobao and Tmall group is expected to be sustained over the next five years. Factors contributing to this growth include improved consumer sentiment, enhanced user behavior on Taobao and Tmall, and the success of value-for-money initiatives like Taobao deals. The company's adaptability was evident in Q2 2023, where revenue dramatically accelerated by 12%, showcasing its resilience and ability to navigate a competitive landscape.New Structure: Alibaba's adoption of the \"1+6+N\" organizational structure is anticipated to accelerate revenue growth and enhance capital returns. The newfound flexibility granted to individual business leaders enables faster decision-making and strategic autonomy. This, coupled with the ability to raise capital independently, is expected to fuel growth. The improved incentives, including IPOs and external capital raises for each business, align with shareholder interests and foster a focus on increasing the market value of the business. The creation of a Capital Management Committee signals an ongoing commitment to consistent share buybacks, presenting a positive outlook for capital returns.Cloud: Despite a temporary slowdown in growth rate, Alibaba Cloud has demonstrated resilience and maintained an average annual sales growth of 58% since 2014. The shift towards digitization in the Chinese economy presents a substantial growth opportunity for the cloud segment. Competitive advantages, including a comprehensive product offering and cost advantages from proprietary technologies, position Alibaba Cloud favorably. The company's focus on forming a full-stack product and technology leadership, especially in artificial intelligence, sets it apart from competitors. The recent leadership changes in the cloud unit, with Eddie Wu taking charge, signal a strategic shift towards AI and continued growth.Alibaba historical valuation (Seeking Alpha)Alibaba is trading at its cheapest valuation, which I believe presents an attractive investment opportunity. The anticipated acceleration in e-commerce growth driven by a recovery of the Chinese economy, the implementation of a new corporate structure, and growth drivers including; Cainiao, AIDC and Alibaba Cloud contribute to the positive outlook. While risks, including competition and leadership changes, are acknowledged, the valuation provides a compelling risk/reward ratio for the company.Q3 updateAlibaba Group delivered a strong performance in Q3 2023, reporting a revenue of RMB 224,790 million (US$30,810 million), marking a 9% YoY increase. Earnings per share (EPS) saw positive trends, with diluted earnings per ADS at RMB 10.77 (US$1.48), and non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS increasing by 21% YoY to RMB 15.63 (US$2.14). Additionally, free cash flow surged by 27% YoY to RMB 45,220 million (US$6,198 million), highlighting Alibaba's financial resilience and operational efficiency. These results signify Alibaba's continued strength in the global market.Cloud TroublesAlibaba cloud quarterly revenue growth (Stratosphere.io)The biggest negative in the quarter came from Alibaba Cloud. Alibaba Cloud's financial development reveals a mixed picture, characterised by slow revenue growth despite significant growth potential in the cloud computing industry. In Q3 2023, Alibaba Cloud's revenue was RMB27,648 million (US$3,789 million), a 2% increase compared to RMB27,035 million in the same quarter of 2022. Year-over-year revenue growth was mainly driven by Alibaba-consolidated businesses, while revenue excluding Alibaba-consolidated businesses slightly decreased year-over-year. This decrease was primarily due to the company's continued effort to improve revenue quality by reducing the revenue from project-based contracts with low margins. However, this decrease was mostly offset by the increase in revenue from public cloud products and services.Despite the slow revenue growth, it's important to note that Alibaba Cloud has undertaken strategic initiatives to make computing more accessible and affordable. In Q1 2023, the company announced a new instance family providing stability and up to 40% cost savings, coupled with reductions in prices for core utility products by up to 50%. These moves are aimed at increasing public cloud adoption in China and leveraging AI technology for enterprises, indicating a forward-looking approach to market penetration. These actions have likely created a short-term headwind to revenue growth until Q1 2024 when the actions will be lapped.Notably, the company highlights a strong demand for model training and AI services on cloud infrastructure, driven by the global surge of interest in artificial intelligence. Alibaba Cloud acknowledges near-term supply chain constraints but remains optimistic about the growth opportunities presented by AI services, considering it the beginning of a new era. The company emphasizes continued investments in forming a full-stack product and technology leadership across Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Model as a Service (MaaS) layers, differentiating itself from competitors in China.The company recently showcased the upgraded version (2.0) of Alibaba's large language model, Tongyi Qianwen, with enhanced capabilities in understanding complex instructions, reasoning, memorization, and reducing hallucination. Eight vertical models tailored for specific industries, including finance and gaming, were introduced, along with functionalities like code generation and customer support.Alibaba Cloud has fostered one of China's largest open-source AI developer communities, ModelScope, attracting over 2.8 million developers and accumulating 100 million model downloads. The company plans to contribute open-source versions of Tongyi Qianwen models to ModelScope, emphasizing collaborative AI development.In terms of financial performance, Alibaba Cloud's adjusted EBITA experienced a robust year-over-year growth of 44%, reaching RMB1,409 million (US$193 million) in Q3 2023, compared to RMB981 million in the same quarter of 2022. This growth was attributed to improving product mix and operating efficiency. However, it's crucial to recognize that while income continues to grow faster than revenue, signaling operational efficiency and success in shifting its focus to more profitable contracts, this may not be sustainable in the long term. Alibaba Cloud acknowledges the need to achieve economies of scale for long-term operating benefits and profitability.The departure of Cloud Head Daniel Zhang and the cancellation of the highly-anticipated IPO in Q3 raise questions about the strategic direction and challenges faced by Alibaba Cloud. The decision not to proceed with a full spin-off indicates a focus on developing a sustainable growth model for Cloud Intelligence Group amid uncertainties created by expanded U.S. export control rules on advanced computing chips. The overhaul of Alibaba Cloud's leadership, bringing in veterans to new positions, underscores the company's determination to tap into the booming artificial intelligence market.In conclusion, while Alibaba Cloud faces challenges such as slow revenue growth and uncertainties in the regulatory landscape, the company remains proactive in addressing market dynamics, investing in technological leadership, and optimizing its operations. The implications of the CEO leaving and the canceled IPO suggest a period of strategic reassessment and potential restructuring as Alibaba Cloud navigates the evolving cloud computing landscape in China, despite this, Alibaba has maintained its strong market share suggesting the industry is dealing with slower growth, suggesting the problems are not solely with Alibaba.Improved shareholder returnsIn March 2023, Alibaba Group announced a significant shift in its capital allocation strategy, adopting a \"1+6+N\" governance structure. This new structure aimed to enhance operational autonomy for individual business segments, improve shareholder returns, and promote the inception of innovative new businesses.Under the new structure, Alibaba Group is now the holding company, overseeing six primary business segments: Cloud Intelligence, Taobao and Tmall, Local Services, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, and Digital Media and Entertainment. Each of these business segments has the flexibility to raise external capital and pursue its own initial public offering (IPO), except for Taobao Tmall Business Group, which remains wholly owned by Alibaba.Alibaba's capital allocation philosophy is based on three key principles:1. Invest in technology & innovation for growth. Alibaba will continue to invest heavily in research and development in order to maintain its competitive edge in the cloud computing and e-commerce industries.2. Reduce total shares outstanding to achieve accretive EPS. Alibaba will repurchase shares and pursue share buyback programs in order to reduce the number of shares outstanding and increase earnings per share (EPS).3. Reward long-term shareholders via an annual dividend. Alibaba will pay out a regular dividend to its shareholders in order to reward them for their investments in the company.In Q3 2023, Alibaba took a number of actions to implement its new capital allocation strategy. These actions included:First, Providing funding to AIDC Group for its expansion plans. Alibaba provided AIDC Group with US$1.7 billion in funding to support its expansion plans. This funding will help AIDC Group to grow its business and reach new markets.Secondly, Repurchasing shares. Alibaba repurchased approximately 18.6 million ADSs (the equivalent of 148.4 million ordinary shares) for approximately US$1.7 billion under its share repurchase program. This repurchase of shares reduced the number of shares outstanding by 138.9 million ordinary shares (the equivalent of approximately 17.4 million ADSs) from last quarter.Third, Announcing an annual cash dividend for fiscal year 2023. Alibaba's board of directors has approved an annual cash dividend for fiscal year 2023 in the amount of US$0.125 per ordinary share or US$1.00 per ADS. This dividend will be paid to holders of ordinary shares and holders of ADSs as of the close of business on December 21, 2023. Although I'd rather see an increase in the buyback, I still consider a dividend the second best use of capital. I believe the dividend will also help alleviate some fears of shareholder ownership through VIE structure.Alibaba annual ROCE (Stratosphere.io)The new capital allocation strategy appears to be having a positive impact on Alibaba's return on capital employed (ROCE). ROCE is a measure of how efficiently a company generates profits from its assets. In Q3 2023, Alibaba's ROCE was 9.5%, up from 6.7% in Q1 2021. This increase in ROCE is due to a number of factors, including the company's strong revenue growth, its focus on efficiency, and its improved working capital management.ConclusionIn conclusion, the investment landscape for Alibaba presents a compelling bullish case despite the increasing competition in the Chinese e-commerce sector from PDD Holdings (PDD) and live-streaming companies, such as ByteDance. The resilience of this segment, outperforming key rival JD.com, underscores the enduring strength of Alibaba's market position.Quarterly revenue growth - BABA, JD, PDD (Stratosphere.io)While the cloud segment has faced challenges with slow growth and high management turnover, the recent appointment of veteran leaders instills confidence that Alibaba is poised to capitalize on the substantial growth opportunity in this space.Notably, Alibaba's bets on Cainiao, international commerce, and various smaller ventures are paying off, contributing to robust revenue growth. The company's commitment to efficiency, enhanced shareholder returns, and a focus on innovation further positions Alibaba for long-term success.despite strong fundamental performance, Alibaba's stock is currently at the lowest valuation in its history, presenting an opportune entry point for investors. This valuation, coupled with the company's solid fundamentals and strategic initiatives, sets the stage for potential outsized returns in the future.In light of these factors, Alibaba emerges as an attractive investment choice, well-positioned to navigate challenges, capitalize on growth opportunities, and ultimately reward investors with sustained long-term value.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":251530041659400,"gmtCreate":1702446015884,"gmtModify":1702446020284,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bcaa9548fb78e0409a2827c590935dab","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"htmlText":"Have confidence in Alibaba.&nbsp;","listText":"Have confidence in Alibaba.&nbsp;","text":"Have confidence in Alibaba.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251530041659400","repostId":2390328462,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":251529976291616,"gmtCreate":1702445916337,"gmtModify":1702445920752,"author":{"id":"4096841192952540","authorId":"4096841192952540","name":"suthanb4u","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f20cddb20a5bf9628a34649fd09fd65","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4096841192952540","authorIdStr":"4096841192952540"},"htmlText":"It will shoot to moon in 3Q2024. Till then it will be range bound to max $100.","listText":"It will shoot to moon in 3Q2024. Till then it will be range bound to max $100.","text":"It will shoot to moon in 3Q2024. Till then it will be range bound to max $100.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251529976291616","repostId":2390328462,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":251534629376120,"gmtCreate":1702447177180,"gmtModify":1702460409108,"authorId":3570058765891495,"author":{"id":3570058765891495,"idStr":"3570058765891495","authorId":3570058765891495,"name":"PhoenixBee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7bfa4323a9a5dfacc73c8817a4e5e48","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.19","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":251529976291616,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"It's gonna 69😂","text":"It's gonna 69😂","html":"It's gonna 69😂"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":14,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2390328462"}