Pfizer 2024 Guidance - Relentless COVID Pain Isn't Over

Seekingalpha2023-12-14

Pfizer cuts financial guidance for 2024 due to slumping Covid drug demand and inability of the Seagen contribution to offset losses.The biopharma forecasts an EPS jump back to ~$2.15 in 2024, but the ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2391052593?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2023-12-14 11:25","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2391052593","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Pfizer 2024 Guidance - Relentless COVID Pain Isn't Over","media":"Seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Pfizer cuts financial guidance for 2024 due to slumping Covid drug demand and inability of the Seagen contribution to offset losses.The biopharma forecasts an EPS jump back to ~$2.15 in 2024, but the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657723-pfizer-2024-guidance-relentless-covid-pain-not-over\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer 2024 Guidance - Relentless COVID Pain Isn't Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer 2024 Guidance - Relentless COVID Pain Isn't Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-14 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657723-pfizer-2024-guidance-relentless-covid-pain-not-over><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Pfizer cuts financial guidance for 2024 due to slumping Covid drug demand and inability of the Seagen contribution to offset losses.The biopharma forecasts an EPS jump back to ~$2.15 in 2024, but the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657723-pfizer-2024-guidance-relentless-covid-pain-not-over\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1057294990.SGD","symbol_name":"Blackrock World Healthscience A2 SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657723-pfizer-2024-guidance-relentless-covid-pain-not-over","article_id":"2391052593","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2391052593","pubTimestamp":1702524334,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Pfizer cuts financial guidance for 2024 due to slumping Covid drug demand and inability of the Seagen contribution to offset losses.The biopharma forecasts an EPS jump back to ~$2.15 in 2024, but the ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1057294990.SGD":"Blackrock World Healthscience A2 SGD-H","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0320765992.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Biotechnology Discovery A Acc SGD","BK4007":"制药","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0109394709.USD":"富兰克林生物科技新领域基金A (acc)","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0058720904.USD":"联博国际健康护理基金A","LU1093756168.USD":"FRANKLIN K2 ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0122379950.USD":"贝莱德世界健康科学A2","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999001176.USD":"United Global Healthcare Acc USD","PFE":"辉瑞","LU0889565916.HKD":"FRANKLIN BIOTECHNOLOGY DISCOVERY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","SG9999013999.USD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE FUND (USDHDG) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","SG9999001176.SGD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE \"SGD\" (ACC)","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","SGXZ57979304.SGD":"United Global Healthcare A Acc SGD-H","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1023059063.AUD":"BGF WORLD HEALTHSCIENCE \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1093756325.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin K2 Alt Strat Fd A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"translate_title":"辉瑞2024指南——无情的COVID痛苦尚未结束","themeId":"c5bbfdf5f7964880af97c1d6f417052c","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":1},"content_text":"Pfizer cuts financial guidance for 2024 due to slumping Covid drug demand and inability of the Seagen contribution to offset losses.The biopharma forecasts an EPS jump back to ~$2.15 in 2024, but the Covid business continues to impact financials.PFE stock gets intriguing at this valuation once Pfizer management is able to show stability in the business without further Covid drug sales hits.In another disappointing move, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) cut financial guidance for the period ahead. The biopharma continues to struggle with slumping Covid drug demand, while the Seagen (SGEN) contribution can't offset the big losses. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock, as the company works to reset the business while the stock has fallen dramatically.Source: FinvizAnother Big Guidance Cut From PfizerOnly back in October, Pfizer slashed estimates for 2023 after the biopharma amended a supply agreement with the U.S. government for Paxlovid and cut forecasts for Covid vaccines. The new financial target cuts resets the expectations for 2024, as Covid demand continues to slump.Pfizer is now guiding to revenues generally flat with 2023 numbers despite adding the Seagen business and shifting $1.0 in royalty payments to the revenue line. The Seagen deal is expected to close on December 14, with the cancer business adding ~$3.1 billion to sales in 2024.Source: Pfizer 2024 presentationNaturally, for the revenues to be flat next year despite adding in the Seagen business, Pfizer is cutting the legacy business guidance. The 2024 guidance as the legacy revenues slumping a similar amount to between $54.5 to $57.5 billion, down from $58.0 to $61.0 billion for 2023.Due to up to $4.0 billion in cost cuts by the end of 2024, Pfizer is forecasting an EPS jumps to ~$2.55 next year, up from an estimate of $1.55 in 2023. The Seagen business will slash $0.40 from the estimates, leading the biopharma to a $2.15 EPS target for 2024.The good news is that Pfizer again strips out a larger portion of the Covid revenues from the estimates for 2024. Though, the numbers due still forecast ~$8 billion for Comirnaty ($5B) and Paxlovid ($3B).Back in October, Pfizer had guided to full-year 2023 Covid revenues of only $12.5 billion, down from an original estimate of $21.5 billion. The majority of the revenues were targeted towards the 2H, so these revenues were the expected run rate going forward, but Covid vaccine demand continues to slump.At the start of the year, Pfizer had forecast total revenues of up to $70 billion with consensus estimates generally forecasting revenues still in the $70 billion range in the years ahead. The forecast was for some general Covid sales run off offset by operational revenue growth outside of the Covid drugs in the 3% to 5% range.Source: Seeking AlphaIn essence, Pfizer would probably be viewed in a better light without the Covid business in the way now with revenues growing somewhere from $50 billion to $60 billion over the decade. In addition, Seagen would add $3.1 billion to the prior revenue estimates.Path ForwardPfizer has an interesting underlying business, with the Seagen addition contributing to 8% to 10% growth without the Covid business. The company earned a $3+ EPS prior to all of the Covid boosts, so investors should look at those numbers as closer to normalization as the biopharma cuts costs and absorbs the extra Seagen costs.When the deal was announced, Seagen was forecast to generate $2.2 billion in revenue this year and the consensus estimates predict a $2.4 billion target. Pfizer set a goal for sales of up to $10 billion by 2030.The numbers don't really add up with Pfizer paying $43 billion for cancer drugs. The balance sheet will suddenly have ~$65 billion in net debt just when the financial picture has significantly worsened. The biopharma will no longer have a strong Covid profit machine to help repay debt from the Seagen deal.The annual dividend payout of ~$9 billion will absorb a lot of the cash flows in the next year, reducing the ability of Pfizer to repay debt in the short term. Investors will get a 6% dividend payout, as the company works out the troubles with the profits picture.The stock is difficult to own here as the Covid shakeout continues. Once the drug company gets into 2024 and sets the floor in the Covid business, the stock could finally become investable.TakeawayThe key investor takeaway is that investors were warned the Covid pain wasn't over yet. Pfizer has dipped to new lows and the business still includes forecasts for $8 billion in revenues from the Covid drugs. Pfizer Inc. stock isn't touchable until there is a full shakeout of the Covid business. At that point, Pfizer might get interesting, if the biopharma can continue to deliver non-Covid drug growth in the 3% to 5% range.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2391052593"}