S&P 500: 2024 Investment Strategy - Continuing To Buy At Market Peaks

Seekingalpha2023-12-13

The S&P 500 has risen 10% since October, and this article analyzes key economic data to predict its performance in 2024.Recent data shows a decrease in job openings compared to 2022, but still higher ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Aaronnz
2023-12-13
Aaronnz
Wow

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2391830875?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2023-12-13 11:42","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2391830875","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"S&P 500: 2024 Investment Strategy - Continuing To Buy At Market Peaks","media":"Seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has risen 10% since October, and this article analyzes key economic data to predict its performance in 2024.Recent data shows a decrease in job openings compared to 2022, but still higher ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657510-s-and-p-500-2024-investment-strategy-buy-at-market-peaks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500: 2024 Investment Strategy - Continuing To Buy At Market Peaks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500: 2024 Investment Strategy - Continuing To Buy At Market Peaks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-13 11:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657510-s-and-p-500-2024-investment-strategy-buy-at-market-peaks><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has risen 10% since October, and this article analyzes key economic data to predict its performance in 2024.Recent data shows a decrease in job openings compared to 2022, but still higher ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657510-s-and-p-500-2024-investment-strategy-buy-at-market-peaks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BMPRXN33.USD","symbol_name":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657510-s-and-p-500-2024-investment-strategy-buy-at-market-peaks","article_id":"2391830875","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2391830875","pubTimestamp":1702438925,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The S&P 500 has risen 10% since October, and this article analyzes key economic data to predict its performance in 2024.Recent data shows a decrease in job openings compared to 2022, but still higher ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK4576":"AR","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD"},"translate_title":"标普500：2024年投资策略——继续在市场峰值买入","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"VOO":1.1,"SPY":1.1,".SPX":1.1},"content_text":"The S&P 500 has risen 10% since October, and this article analyzes key economic data to predict its performance in 2024.Recent data shows a decrease in job openings compared to 2022, but still higher than 2019, indicating strong labor market demand.Despite some softening, the current job market is stronger than in the past 15 years, with low competition for jobs and continued employer bargaining power.In 2023, wage growth outpaced inflation, reducing the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Fed.The forward P/E ratio aligns with the 5-year average, suggesting reasonable valuation; earnings growth projections for 2024 remain solid.IntroductionBack in October, we put a Buy rating on the S&P 500. The index has risen around 10% since then. In this article, we want to go over some key economic data - jobs, inflation, corporate earnings - to look at how the S&P 500 might perform in 2024.Employment Data AnalysisWhen we look at employment data recently, we see that while the percentage of job openings compared to overall employment is lower in 2023 than in 2022, it remains higher than back in 2019. This means companies still have a lot of open jobs and vacancies they are trying to fill relative to the number of people working.What does this tell us? Well, it suggests that in the ongoing dynamics between employers and workers, companies continue to have bargaining power.BLSEven though it may be getting just a little tougher for some folks looking for jobs compared to early 2022 or 2021, the job market right now is still stronger overall than we've seen in the last 15 years or so. There just aren't nearly as many unemployed people competing for each available job as historically normal. Even if conditions have softened some lately, with fewer new openings or more layoffs here and there, the big picture is it's still much better hunting than during or after the last recession.BLSShifts in Major Employment CategoriesLooking at job openings divided up across different industries, we continue to see really strong hiring demand in professional services like law, accounting, engineering, etc. as well as transportation, warehousing, and utilities. This suggests that developing technologies like AI and automation, along with higher interest rates, are still fueling growth in these sectors even compared to pre-pandemic levels.BLSOn the other hand, job openings have declined in four big employment categories: healthcare, restaurants/hotels, retail, and wholesale trade. Healthcare and hospitality expanded so rapidly during COVID that even at higher openings than historically normal now, they may still have some cooling off ahead in a post-pandemic economy.BLSRetail and wholesale openings are also down but more in line with pre-2020 levels. This likely reflects both the ongoing shift toward spending more on services than goods, as well as the steady growth of e-commerce eating into traditional brick-and-mortar sales. Retail especially is seeing sluggish growth, with stocks trading at historically cheap valuations in 2023. However, there are some signs of stabilization, like the recent $5.8 billion potential buyout offer of Macy's (M) by private equity firm Brigade Capital on December 11th.BLSInflation Data AnalysisSome investors seem concerned that the continued strength of the job market will give the Fed room to either raise rates further or keep rates pinned at high levels for longer. Looking at market projections, there's only about a 2.2% chance priced in of another rate hike at the December Fed meeting.However, the market also now sees a 40% probability, down 2% over the past week, of the Fed starting to cut rates again by June 2024. This shift likely reflects the latest positive jobs reports shifting expectations.Investing.comInvesting.comIn our view though, while the Fed will probably keep rates relatively high for a while, further hikes are unlikely given the inflation outlook. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation in 2023 and accelerated in October.MacrotrendWith the Atlanta Fed also downgrading Q4 GDP forecasts to 1.2% growth, there seems to be minimal risk of renewed price spikes.Atlantic FedThe bottom line is that jobs and inflation both remain relatively healthy by historical standards. So we don't expect Fed policy to pose much of an upside risk or headwind for stock market performance in the S&P 500 heading into 2024.S&P 500 Valuation and ExpectationsLooking at valuation, the forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.8x. That's equal to the 5-year average P/E, and moderately above the 10-year average of 17.6x. So based on this, stocks appear reasonably valued relative to history.FactSetIn terms of growth expectations, analysts have revised Q4 earnings and revenue growth estimates downward a bit compared to late September, consistent with the Atlanta Fed also reducing Q4 GDP outlooks.FactsStBut looking ahead to 2024, projections still call for solid S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.9% and revenue growth of 5.5%. That keeps the forward PEG ratio under 2x, a very reasonable level historically.FactSetIn terms of profit margins, 2024 net profit margin forecasts for the S&P 500 stand at 12.3% - higher than the 11.7% expected in 2023 and the 10.6% 10-year average. Hitting 12.3% would be the second-highest annual profit margin since FactSet's tracking began in 2008.Risks for Small and Mid-Sized CompaniesSome investors worry that if rates stay relatively high, it could restrict the growth of small and mid-sized companies in 2024, potentially causing events like widespread defaults or bankruptcies.Indeed, the mega-cap tech stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) - the \"Magnificent Seven\" - have carried the overall US market higher in 2023 even as many smaller firms hit struggles. However, we've also seen many formerly money-losing companies like Carvana (CVNA) and Affirm (AFRM) steadily improve lately despite financing costs remaining elevated.FactSetThis suggests to me that after feeling significant inflation pain in 2022, many smaller players have now adapted their business models to operate sustainably in a higher-rate environment. And with inflation trending down and the job market still robust, healthier economic conditions in 2024 should help these more vulnerable companies rebound.So while risks certainly remain, we don't expect mass defaults or extreme fallout for small-caps. The challenges of the last 18 months have forced the necessary evolution for such businesses to survive and eventually thrive again when the economy finds post-pandemic stability.ConclusionPutting it all together, the S&P 500 valuation looks reasonable per the PEG ratio, the economic backdrop of inflation and employment remains healthy, and analysts expect continued earnings growth in 2024. So we maintain our buy rating on US large-cap stocks for the coming year.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":251531113701608,"gmtCreate":1702446321440,"gmtModify":1702446325339,"author":{"id":"3583727724427055","authorId":"3583727724427055","name":"Aaronnz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081382b8819d97b743c11f71bcb95f0b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3583727724427055","authorIdStr":"3583727724427055"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251531113701608","repostId":2391830875,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2391830875"}