A Year in Commodities: 2023's Market Upheaval and What Lies Ahead

LiveWire2023-12-28

Turn your attention back 12 months from today… Tech was tanking. Gold stunk. Banking was on the verge of a systemic meltdown. Global real estate was balancing on the edge of an interest rate cliff. ...

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On 7 November 2022 the commodity made an all-time high of 569,000 CNY  per tonne.Over the last 12 months, IGO [ASX:IGO] has shed around 45%.By mid-2023, we began to test the waters…That’s despite authorities ending a generous subsidy that’s","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","BK4109":"特种化学制品","PLS.AU":"PILBARA MINERALS LTD","BK7506":"金矿股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","AKE.AU":"Allkem Limited","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4588":"碎股","BK7504":"锂钴概念","LU1861214812.USD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 USD","LU1861219969.SGD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 SGD-H","BK4545":"锂电池","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","ALB":"美国雅保","MIN.AU":"MINERAL RESOURCES LTD","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","BK7507":"资源股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IGO.AU":"IGO LTD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD"},"translate_title":"大宗商品的一年：2023年的市场动荡和未来","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ALB":1,"PLS.AU":1,"MIN.AU":1,"IGO.AU":1,"AKE.AU":1},"content_text":"Turn your attention back 12 months from today…\nTech was tanking.\nGold stunk. \nBanking was on the verge of a systemic meltdown.\nGlobal real estate was balancing on the edge of an interest rate cliff.\nAnd…COVID lockdowns were still on in China!\nIt was a torrid time…\nAs reported by Reuters, economist’s consensus was for a 70% recession probability in the US.\nYet despite the misery, there was a bright spot…\nLithium.\nIn the second half of 2022, lithium producers began to emerge…slowly at first. \nBut with EV sales strengthening across China and the US, the miners undertook a six-month campaign that defied market misery. \nDevelopers, producers and explorers rose in unison.\nThe lithium boom was on.\nMarket-caps swelled; revenues shot up!\nThe ASX200 became inundated with emerging lithium producers. \nMiners like Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] ascended 158% in just four months. \nFor explorers, gains were higher still.\nBut fast forward to today and boy oh boy, things have certainly changed!\nTake a look at the 5-year chart for lithium carbonate, below:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Trading Economics\n\nClassic!\nOn 7 November 2022 the commodity made an all-time high of 569,000 CNY (Chinese Yuan) per tonne.\n12 months later and the metal trades for just 81,000 CNY/tonne.\nThat’s an earth shattering 86% capitulation…a textbook boom to bust tale. \nWhile falls haven’t been as hefty among the lithium producing heavyweights…last year’s stock market darlings have certainly lost favour.\nOver the last 12 months, IGO [ASX:IGO] has shed around 45%.\nMineral Resources [ASX:MIN] and Allkem [ASX:AKE] have both lost around 30%.\nWhile US lithium giant Albemarle [NYSE:ALB] has given up over half of its value.\n2023 will go down as a brutal year for lithium investors.\nAs a side note, I had many readers asking me about lithium stocks at the end of 2022.\nDiggers & Drillers happened to launch right alongside peak euphoria.\nBut at that time, I had no intention of getting readers into this frothy market.\nJust as well, given the steep falls that followed.\nYet we didn’t dodge the wreckage, entirely.\nBy mid-2023, we began to test the waters…adding two lithium plays offering hefty discounts. \nBut as it turns out, that was still too early…the sector continued to sell down for the next half of 2023.\nIs lithium close to bottoming?\nI wish I had the answer…but really, does it matter?\nAfter all, electric vehicle (EV) sales continue to break new records in the US. \nYear-to-date sales have just surpassed 1 million for the first time ever in the world’s largest economy. \nDespite analysts forecasting waning interest, sales are booming.\nThis single factor will drive demand as battery makers scour the market for more metal.\nMeanwhile, data from market research firm Rho Motion showed EV sales in China jumped 29% year-to-date.\nThat’s despite authorities ending a generous subsidy that’s kept sales buoyant over the last 11 years. \nBut it’s not just EV sales boosting the outlook…\n2023 has seen rampant M&A activity across the sector.\nMining heavy weights Gina Rinehart, SQM and Albemarle have all taken part in multi-billion arm wrestles as they jostle for quality lithium assets.\nMeanwhile, the world’s fourth largest oil producer, Exxon mobile, is pivoting to become a major global supplier!\nThis $400 billion oil giant is looking to tap lithium-rich brines across its landholding in the US state of Arkansas.\nBut as the big wigs clamber for more lithium, small-time investors head for the exits.\nFor most shareholders, lithium has had its time in the spotlight in 2022. The boom is well and truly over. \nBut if that were the case, why are the world’s biggest players ratcheting up exposure?\nDo they know something the rest of us fail to see?\nYou can count on it!\nFor this reason, I expect small, exploration stocks in this arena to really fire if the lithium boom re-ignites in 2024. \nLithium is wild, volatile, risky and moves with little predictability.\nRight now, last year’s overhyped investment theme looks over. \nBut with EV demand rising in the world’s two largest economies…just as multi-billion corporates vie for more assets…\nLITHIUM could be the number one contrarian trade opportunity in 2024. \nIt’s risky, though. You can lose a lot of money with the wrong move. \nBut landing on the right one can lead to handsome benefits.\nAnd a subscription to Diggers and Drillers can help you here.\nIf you’d like to jump on board, now’s the time to do it!\nTo get Diggers and Drillers for 70% off the regular price…before midnight 1 January, click here.\nRegards,\nJames Cooper\nEditor, Diggers & Drillers and Mining: Phase One\n\n\n\n\n \n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2394752834"}