Hongkong Land Holdings Limited's (SGX:H78) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 71% Above Its Share Price

Simply Wall St.01-08

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Hongkong Land Holdings fair value estimate is US$5.87 Current share price of US$3.44 suggests Hongkong Land Holdings is potentially 41% ...

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Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value  by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value.  The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this.  There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.  We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios.  If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.  Check out our latest analysis for Hongkong Land Holdings  The Model   We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase.  To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows.   Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.   Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future,  and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:  10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate  2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033  Levered FCF ($, Millions)  US$1.14b US$1.06b US$1.06b US$1.08b US$1.09b US$1.11b US$1.12b US$1.14b US$1.17b US$1.19b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 0.57% Est @ 1.00% Est @ 1.31% Est @ 1.52% Est @ 1.67% Est @ 1.78% Est @ 1.85% Est @ 1.90%  Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8%  US$1.0k US$878 US$804 US$740 US$682 US$631 US$584 US$541 US$502 US$466 (\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$6.9b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage.  For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.8%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.2b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (9.8%– 2.0%) = US$16bPresent Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$16b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)10= US$6.1b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows,  which in this case is US$13b.  The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding.  Relative to the current share price of US$3.4, the company appears   quite undervalued    at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently.   Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. SGX:H78 Discounted Cash Flow January 8th 2024  The Assumptions  Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows.  Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions.  The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance.  Given that we are looking at Hongkong Land Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt.  In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.559. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.  SWOT Analysis for Hongkong Land HoldingsStrength Debt is well covered by earnings. Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.  Dividend information for H78. Weakness No major weaknesses identified for H78.Opportunity Expected to breakeven next year. Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. ThreatDebt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable. Is H78 well equipped to handle threats?  Moving On:  Whilst important, the DCF calculation  shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company.  The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool.  Rather it should be seen as a guide to \"what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?\"  For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation.   Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value?   For Hongkong Land Holdings, we've compiled three  additional  aspects  you should assess:   Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted   1 warning sign for Hongkong Land Holdings   you should know about.   Future Earnings: How does H78's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!   PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.Find out whether Hongkong Land Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. 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