U.S. Jobs Report Suggests No Pressing Need For The Fed To Cut Rates

Seekingalpha01-07

Headline numbers are strong from the December US jobs report, but not everything is rosy.Once again job growth is concentrated in just three sectors.Next week's inflation report will still have core ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2401856472?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-01-07 11:06","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2401856472","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"U.S. Jobs Report Suggests No Pressing Need For The Fed To Cut Rates","media":"Seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Headline numbers are strong from the December US jobs report, but not everything is rosy.Once again job growth is concentrated in just three sectors.Next week's inflation report will still have core ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4661350-us-jobs-report-suggests-no-pressing-need-for-the-fed-to-cut-rates\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Jobs Report Suggests No Pressing Need For The Fed To Cut Rates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Jobs Report Suggests No Pressing Need For The Fed To Cut Rates\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-07 11:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4661350-us-jobs-report-suggests-no-pressing-need-for-the-fed-to-cut-rates><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Headline numbers are strong from the December US jobs report, but not everything is rosy.Once again job growth is concentrated in just three sectors.Next week's inflation report will still have core ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4661350-us-jobs-report-suggests-no-pressing-need-for-the-fed-to-cut-rates\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4661350-us-jobs-report-suggests-no-pressing-need-for-the-fed-to-cut-rates","article_id":"2401856472","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2401856472","pubTimestamp":1704596806,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Headline numbers are strong from the December US jobs report, but not everything is rosy.Once again job growth is concentrated in just three sectors.Next week's inflation report will still have core i","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"美国就业报告显示，美联储没有降息的迫切需要","themeId":"46778d7d42be4bfc92705f7cffd6738c","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,"ESmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1,"QQQ":1.1,"SPY":1.1,"VOO":1.1,"YMmain":1.1},"content_text":"Headline numbers are strong from the December US jobs report, but not everything is rosy.Once again job growth is concentrated in just three sectors.Next week's inflation report will still have core inflation close to 4% so the Fed is under no immediate pressure to act.Solid employment gains, low unemployment and sticky wages suggest no immediate need for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Nonetheless, the jobs market is cooling and the concentration of employment gains in sectors viewed historically as being lower paid and more part-time raises some concerns. We think the Fed will wait until May before cutting ratesSolid job gains dampen talk of imminent rate cutsHeadline numbers are strong from the December US jobs report with non-farm payrolls up 216k versus 175k consensus while private payrolls increased 164k versus the 130k consensus forecast. The unemployment rate held at 3.7% rather than rising back to 3.8% as predicted while wages are hotter than forecast, rising 0.4% month-on-month/4.1% year-on-year versus 0.3/3.9% consensus. Unsurprisingly, Treasury yields and the dollar are on the rise as this report clearly helps to dampen talk of a potential March rate cut from the Federal Reserve.US non-farm payrolls monthly change (000s)Macrobond, INGNonetheless, not everything is rosy. The past two months of payrolls data has been revised lower by 71k and the 3-month moving average continues to moderate, as the chart above shows, to the lowest rate since January 2021. The average work week dropped to 34.3 hours from 34.4, while the participation rate declined to 62.5% from 62.8%. In fact, household employment fell 683k so the reason we saw the unemployment rate hold at 3.7% was down to the labour force falling similarly.Not everything is rosy in the jobs marketOnce again job growth is concentrated in just three sectors - Government (+52k), education/healthcare (+74k) and leisure & hospitality (+40k) - so 77% of the jobs added in December were from sectors that are not at the forefront of what traditionally would be viewed as the growth engines of America - business services, transportation, logistics, technology, construction, etc. Looking at 2023 as a whole, of the 2.7mn jobs created 81.2% were in those three sectors.Cumulative monthly payrolls increases in 2023 by sector (000s)Macrobond, INGHistorically government, education/healthcare and leisure & hospitality tend to be lower paid sectors and more part time in nature and indeed we have seen a huge jump in part-time employment, with a significant drop in full-time employment. It is a volatile series, but effectively the report is telling us that we have the fewest Americans employed full time for 11 months - see chart below.Part-time employment levels versus full-time employment (millions)Macrobond, INGWe favour the Fed waiting until May before cutting interest ratesDespite this, the combination of low unemployment, sticky wages and ongoing job creation shows the jobs market remains tight. While we have predicted 150bp of rate cuts for a while for 2024, we didn't, and still don't, buy into the March start point priced by markets earlier this week. We still think May is the more likely start point. Next week's inflation report will still have core inflation close to 4% so the Fed is under no immediate pressure to act.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":24,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2401856472"}