Why Tesla Could Crush Q4 Earnings

seekingalpha01-19

Tesla, Inc. stock has dropped by 28% due to a sluggish macroeconomic atmosphere, high interest rates, stagnant EV demand, and poor sentiment.Tesla's earnings report is expected to beat low sales and ...

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Comments

44kait88
01-19
44kait88
Is no one mentioning the elephant in the room? The frozen electric stations? Abandoned EV's in frozen queues? They just don't work in that climate....crazy. You think they would've tested that.....
All in Tesla
01-19
All in Tesla
Well said. I don't mind the share price to stay low for the time being in allowing more people to accumulate. The time will come it will pop again 🚀
WolfOfPalmy
01-19
WolfOfPalmy
Great article. I think the eps expectations are low ball estimates and I think we may see tsla surpass these
Newbie_Alvin
01-19
Newbie_Alvin
Sell and run away. Buy Nvida is a better choice.

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A sluggish macroeconomic atmosphere, high interest rates, stagnant demand, poor sentiment, and other transitory factors have caused Tesla and other EV stocks to experience considerable weakness in recent months.Tesla's earnings report is scheduled to come out post-market on January 24th, and I believe there is a high probability that Tesla will beat the depressed and lowballed sales and earnings estimates. Moreover, Tesla's 2023 full-year results should produce around $100 billion in revenues, more than a 20% YoY surge. Additionally, 20%+ sales growth could continue in future years, leading to better-than-anticipated profitability and a higher stock price as we advance.Technical Setup - The Downside Could be MinimalTSLA (StockCharts.com)Tesla's stock has moved sideways, consolidating for about eight months. Tesla is now around the lower end of the trading range, with critical support at about the $210-190 level. From a technical standpoint, the downside should be minimal below this point. Also, Tesla's RSI is approaching 30, illustrating oversold market conditions. The CCI, full stochastic, and other technical gauges also suggest that Tesla's stock is becoming technically oversold. The last three times we saw similar technical conditions, it led to rallies in Tesla's stock.It's Not Just TeslaTesla is not the only electric vehicle (\"EV\") company facing challenges recently. The sluggish macroeconomic atmosphere, high interest rates, increased costs, depressed sentiment, and other transitory headwinds have caused most EV stocks to fall considerably in recent months. Here are examples of several EV stocks relative to their 52-week highs.Tesla: 28% below its 52-week highLucid (LCID): 84% below its 52-week highRivian (RIVN): 39% below its 52-week highNIO Inc. (NIO): 59% below its 52-week highXPeng Inc. (XPEV): 58% below its 52-week highLi Auto Inc. (LI): 38% below its 52-week highTesla's 28% decline isn't so bad compared to the broader segment. Tesla continues dominating the 100% \"pure\" EV space because of its multifaceted competitive advantage and economies of scale capabilities. Despite the transitory economic slowdown, Tesla remains highly profitable and takes additional market share from its competition by introducing temporary price cuts.Unfortunately, some of Tesla's smaller competitors remain far from profitable and are forced to dilute their stocks continuously. Therefore, we see sharp declines in stocks like Lucid, as there are legitimate concerns regarding how long their unprofitable business model remains viable.Despite the transitory challenges, this market dynamic is highly constructive for Tesla, especially in the intermediate and long term. The EV market should continue expanding, and if Tesla acquires additional customers by temporarily lowering prices in the transitory downdraft, the dynamic should benefit Tesla's business tremendously in the long run.Long-Term Outlook Highly Favorable for TeslaEV market growth prospects (MarketsandMarkets.com)Despite the economic slowdown, ultra-high interest rates, and other detrimental headwinds, the EV market expanded by about 18% globally last year. Moreover, sales are expected to reach approximately $952 billion by 2030 (13.7% CAGR). Tesla's sales are expected to come in at around $100 billion, with roughly $95 billion coming from its vehicle segment. This dynamic illustrates that Tesla sales account for about 25% of global EV revenues.Also, sales could accelerate as countries approach the fossil fuel phaseout period. Therefore, we may see a more aggressive growth rate than the 13.7% estimate, leading to $1 trillion-plus sales in several years.Tesla's increasing market share, economies of scale, and multifaceted competitive advantages could enable it to continue dominating the EV segment, growing revenues by 20%+ for several years (2023-2028).Why Tesla Could Beat Upcoming Earning EstimatesQ4 production and deliveries (ir.tesla.com)In Q4 2023, Tesla delivered 484,507 vehicles. Deliveries comprised 461,538 Model 3/Y cars and 22,969 other vehicles (primarily Model S/X segment). 2% of Model 3/Ys are subject to lease accounting, leaving 452,307 Model 3/Y sales. Using an approximate average selling price \"ASP\" of $42,250 equates to roughly $19.1 billion.Roughly 3% of Tesla's other vehicle sales are subject to lease accounting, equating to about 22,280 vehicle sales. Using a $110K ASP for Tesla's other vehicle segment equates to approximately $2.5 billion in sales. Therefore, Tesla's vehicle sales segment could deliver $21.6 billion in sales for the previous quarter.Tesla's Total RevenuesVehicle sales: $21.6 billionZEV credits: $500 millionLeasing: $500 millionServices and other: $2.4 billionEnergy generation and storage: $1.8 billionQ4 2023 Total Sales: $26.8 billion.Note: Estimates are based on prior results and other publicly available information.Tesla May Crush EstimatesRevenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )The Q4 consensus revenue estimate is only $25.8 billion, and if Tesla achieves my $26.8 billion revenue figure, it will be a 4% beat over the consensus estimate. $26.8 billion would illustrate 10.3% YoY growth, much better than the estimated 6.1%. Also, revenue growth should accelerate in 2024. Consensus estimates show H1 revenue growth of about 15%, increasing to 25-30% in H2. Moreover, consensus estimates predict that Tesla could continue commanding 25-30% revenue growth for several years. The revenue growth acceleration is bullish for Tesla's stock price. Also, the company could continue beating the lowballed consensus figures, leading to higher profitability as we advance.Profitability Prospects ImprovingTesla's gross margin recently decreased to 18% (Q3 2023). This result significantly dropped from the 25% gross margin posted in the same quarter a year ago. We've seen Tesla's TTM gross margin decline from a high of around 27% in early 2022. This margin compression phase isn't a coincidence, as it began around the time the economy began slowing. Inflation and costs increased, and the Fed started raising rates, putting additional pressure on Tesla's margins. We also saw a similar margin compression dynamic negatively affect Tesla during the 2015-2018 slowdown phase. This temporary dynamic led to a considerable margin expansion phase in the 2018-2022 time frame.Inflation continues moderating, economic growth is returning, costs should improve, and the Fed is pivoting toward a more accessible monetary stance. While Tesla introduced aggressive price cuts during the slowdown phase, it can increase prices as the economy expands in future quarters. Therefore, Tesla's gross and operating margins should improve, leading to higher-than-expected profitability as we advance.Tesla's operating margin dropped from 17.2% in Q3 2022 to 7.5% last quarter. Operating costs surged by about 40% YoY in the previous quarter. Thus, Tesla's net income margin sank to just 8% from 15% in the same quarter a year ago. The recent period could be a low point for Tesla's margins, and we should see a recovery soon. A net income margin of 10% on Tesla's $26.8B in revenues for Q4 2023 would result in a net income of around $2.7 billion, or about 85 cents in EPS.EPS Estimates May Be Too Low NowEPS growth (SeekingAlpha.com)The consensus estimate is only $0.74, implying Tesla could achieve a 9% net income margin relative to the consensus $25.76 revenue forecast. However, due to increased sales, price improvements, cost cutting, and other measures, Tesla could achieve a 10% net income margin with higher-than-expected revenues of $26.8B. Therefore, Tesla could report around $0.85 in EPS, leading to upward revenue, EPS revisions, and a higher stock price.Tesla Should Continue Expanding Long TermCEO Elon Musk wants 25% of Tesla's voting shares if he is to transform Tesla into a global robotics and AI leader. Mr. Musk has a sizeable fortune but would need to buy up about 12% of Tesla's shares to reach his goal. 12%, with Tesla's market cap of around $700 billion, equates to about $84 billion.Elon's fortune has grown so massive that if he acquired the shares at the current price, he would still have around $144 billion left over. Plus, Tesla shares could go higher, growing his wealth even more.However, buying such a significant amount of stock would take time and likely push Tesla's stock price considerably higher. In any case, I believe that Elon Musk, Tesla's board, and shareholders will come to an acceptable agreement, enabling Tesla robotics, AI, and other revolutionary initiatives to take place.Tesla shareholders don't want Elon to develop highly lucrative enterprises like robotics and AI outside of Tesla. The recent news flow regarding Elon wanting a more significant controlling stake may be the runup to Tesla's next major growth cycle. Tesla's always been a forward-looking company, and it can make tremendous strides in robotics, AI, and other future segments, considerably increasing its revenues, profitability, and stock price.Where Tesla's price could be in future years:The Year2024202520262027202820292030Revenue Bs$135$168$213$267$331$407$496Revenue growth35%24%27%25%24%23%22%EPS$6$8$11$15$20$26$32EPS growth85%33%38%35%31%28%25%Forward P/E38373635343332Stock price$304$407$540$700$884$1050$1200Source: The Financial Prophet.Tesla's explosive revenue growth should lead to considerable profitability expansion. Moreover, due to its substantial growth and profitability prospects, Tesla's P/E multiple could remain relatively high in the 30-40 range. Therefore, Tesla's stock price can increase significantly as the company continues growing sales and improving profitability in future years. My 2030 price target for Tesla remains in the $1,000 - 1,200 range.Risks to TeslaTesla faces several risks despite my bullish outlook for the company. We see increased competition in the EV space, a dynamic that could impact demand, margins, and future profitability metrics. There is also the risk of a slower-than-anticipated economy with worse-than-expected demand for EVs. High interest rates for longer should also negatively impact Tesla's bottom line. There is also the risk of Cybertruck and other vehicle production that can result in higher than anticipated costs. We may see lower-than-projected growth in Tesla's sales, leading to worsening sentiment and a lower stock price as we advance. Investors should consider these and other risks before establishing a position in Tesla.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":264673863024864,"gmtCreate":1705641790865,"gmtModify":1705642486939,"author":{"id":"4160780819810002","authorId":"4160780819810002","name":"44kait88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ecc505494026832e6c9c1d3683adcd4f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4160780819810002","authorIdStr":"4160780819810002"},"htmlText":"Is no one mentioning the elephant in the room? The frozen electric stations? Abandoned EV's in frozen queues? They just don't work in that climate....crazy. You think they would've tested that.....","listText":"Is no one mentioning the elephant in the room? The frozen electric stations? Abandoned EV's in frozen queues? They just don't work in that climate....crazy. You think they would've tested that.....","text":"Is no one mentioning the elephant in the room? The frozen electric stations? Abandoned EV's in frozen queues? They just don't work in that climate....crazy. You think they would've tested that.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264673863024864","repostId":2404413539,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":264665024573496,"gmtCreate":1705639665468,"gmtModify":1705639670371,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"All in Tesla","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8db11f6e6a9a2a52850e734188850dc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577580366301047","authorIdStr":"3577580366301047"},"htmlText":"Well said. I don't mind the share price to stay low for the time being in allowing more people to accumulate. The time will come it will pop again 🚀","listText":"Well said. I don't mind the share price to stay low for the time being in allowing more people to accumulate. The time will come it will pop again 🚀","text":"Well said. I don't mind the share price to stay low for the time being in allowing more people to accumulate. The time will come it will pop again 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264665024573496","repostId":2404413539,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":264658867810384,"gmtCreate":1705638172057,"gmtModify":1705638176514,"author":{"id":"4123637188514252","authorId":"4123637188514252","name":"WolfOfPalmy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1851a30c20bb3b1b59a25db1c8c92c7c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4123637188514252","authorIdStr":"4123637188514252"},"htmlText":"Great article. I think the eps expectations are low ball estimates and I think we may see tsla surpass these","listText":"Great article. I think the eps expectations are low ball estimates and I think we may see tsla surpass these","text":"Great article. I think the eps expectations are low ball estimates and I think we may see tsla surpass these","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264658867810384","repostId":2404413539,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":264499228942520,"gmtCreate":1705599241852,"gmtModify":1705599245890,"author":{"id":"3579074367224643","authorId":"3579074367224643","name":"Newbie_Alvin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579074367224643","authorIdStr":"3579074367224643"},"htmlText":"Sell and run away. Buy Nvida is a better choice.&nbsp;","listText":"Sell and run away. Buy Nvida is a better choice.&nbsp;","text":"Sell and run away. Buy Nvida is a better choice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264499228942520","repostId":2404413539,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":17,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2404413539"}