The Big Long Of Gold

seekingalpha01-17

Gold is expected to make new highs multiple times in 2024 after a period of leveling for 4 years.Seasonality is favorable for gold in the next 5 weeks.The recent rise in gold prices preceded the ...

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Pgiam/iStock via Getty Images Summary  Gold will likely make new highs many times in 2024 after leveling for 4 years. Seasonality is prime time for the next 5 weeks. Gold's recent 3-month rise led to the FED’s recent pivot from a hawkish to a dovish stance.  The miners can leverage higher from low valuations if gold rises.  Introduction The past year has experienced many global events that affected the financial markets. The Fed and the Treasury have been instrumental in helping the markets since the bank failures in 03/2023. The authority's actions since 11/2023 are listed below.   Paul Wong  It is doubtful that both the bond and stock markets can rise further because the authorities’ prior actions are purposeful and temporary. The Fiat system   Paul Wong  The pure US dollar-based (US$) Fiat system, backed only by faith and credit, has been in place for only 53 years. The system can function well if the US can keep its discipline of low fiscal and trade deficits, but the realities are getting worse. All other currencies are subordinates to the US$. Comparing money, gold, and commodities, can track the strength of the US$ effectively, thereby reflecting the health of the Fiat system. Since early October, the dollar has been moving sideways, while gold is rising and commodities falling. The same pattern occurred in 2022 too that lasted 6 months. Seasonality is prime time for the next 5 weeks.   Paul Wong  The sudden expansion of BRIC+ to double its size is a historic event. The most direct impact is on global trading, which affects the future demands for the dollar for trading and reserve purposes. The potential global transition from a unipolar to a bipolar trade world will take a few years. Gold can be a winner if BRIC+ adopts it for trade clearance.   Paul Wong  The trade war that started on 03/2018 has expanded to other areas such as technology and finance. The global stock markets showed some of the results. Whether this year becomes a reversal year for some markets remains to be seen.   Paul Wong  The US Fiat system of the US$, treasuries, and stocks in aggregate has been hugely successful for the past 20 years, despite the unprecedented money printing. The chart below attempts to monitor the Fiat system with the simplification of the dollar index (UUP), long-term treasuries (TLT), and SP500 (SPY). TLT was the worst performer for the past 3 years with a decline bottomed at -51% in October. Although TLT bounced back nicely, yield curve normalization, higher rates for long-term than short-term treasuries, remains a threat until the Fed begins cutting interest rates. The latest upward move of the blue curve, US pseudo-financial markets, is forming a double peak. Also, this curve is declining relative to gold.   Paul Wong  The relative ranking table below tracks the recent daily movements of each sector against each other based on the data on price and momentum. The table can help determine the timing for actions qualitatively, based on quantitative analysis of the data.   Paul Wong  The big long of gold Gold is a passive or defensive investment in a Fiat system. Gold usually performs well when the Fiat system is weakening internally, mostly because of deficits and debts. The huge amount of money printing since 2020 caused financial asset price inflation in stocks and bonds. The tradeoff has been raising treasuries to $34 trillion. The more alarming is the fiscal deficit of $1.7 trillion, which equates to -38% of tax revenue. The negative development hurts faith in the Fiat system in the long run. Some foreign treasury buyers are reducing their holdings. Eventually, the Fed will have to reverse quantitative tightening and perform quantitative easing again. The balance sheet pivot likely will begin before the election together with some interest rate cuts. Gold will lead higher when sensing the new moves. The light gold curve represents gold in dollars or GLD. Gold has moved sideways for 4 years. The latest upward trend in October correctly anticipated the peaking of the interest rate cycle. The price of the dollar is in light blue, the dollar multiplied by gold in orange color. This real gold value curve has been in an uptrend since mid-October, which will improve the earnings of the miners. The data starting point is 06/2015.   Paul Wong  The 2-week correction in gold and silver prices makes the miners more undervalued. With a marked improvement in the average gold price over the previous quarter and a slightly lower oil price in reducing cost, positive earnings surprises are likely.   Paul Wong  Conclusion There will be many presidential elections around the world in 2024, which will bring big changes and many reversals in the global financial markets. With wars raging in Europe and the Middle East, the uncertainties will drive investors towards the safest asset which is physical gold or physical gold ETF. BRICS+ countries are leading the effort of accumulating gold for national reserves which can become trade currency for clearance among countries. If global investors renew their interest in gold and increase from a low percentage allocation, gold will break many new highs this year.  This article is for discussion only and is not intended for any investment advice.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2404879391"}