South32's Asset Sale Leads UBS to Question Coal-Price Assumptions -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-01

0259 GMT - UBS wonders whether it needs to lift its assumptions for metallurgical coal prices in the wake of South32's up to $1.65 billion sale of its coal business. In a note, analyst Lachlan Shaw said the bank's valuation of the asset relied on a $180/ton long-term real met coal price. However, the transaction implies a price of $210/ton. "We think the buyers, GEAR and M Resources, would be looking at upside from life extensions and cost out, but also potentially a minimum $230/ton long-term real met coal price," which implies a 16% internal rate of return, Shaw says. "If met coal prices trade closer to these implied values, earnings and valuation upside risk emerges for Australian met coal producers." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

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February 29, 2024 21:59 ET (02:59 GMT)

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