S&P 500 Now 21x Earnings, Spotting Key SPLG Price Levels

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lechatnoir The US stock market has defied Wall Street strategists’ opinions that were somewhat gloomy at the start of the year. Driven by the Mag 7, through March 8, the S&P 500 is up close to 8%, not...

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Driven by the Mag 7, through March 8, the S&P 500 is up close to 8%, not...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677535-splg-etf-spotting-key-price-levels\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Now 21x Earnings, Spotting Key SPLG Price Levels</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Now 21x Earnings, Spotting Key SPLG Price Levels\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-12 17:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677535-splg-etf-spotting-key-price-levels><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>lechatnoir The US stock market has defied Wall Street strategists’ opinions that were somewhat gloomy at the start of the year. Driven by the Mag 7, through March 8, the S&P 500 is up close to 8%, not...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677535-splg-etf-spotting-key-price-levels\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPY","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677535-splg-etf-spotting-key-price-levels","article_id":"2418724585","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455354783/image_1455354783.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2418724585","pubTimestamp":1710236339,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha_fund","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"lechatnoir The US stock market has defied Wall Street strategists’ opinions that were somewhat gloomy at the start of the year. Driven by the Mag 7, through March 8, the S&P 500 is up close to 8%, not","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPLG":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF"},"translate_title":"标普500现在21倍的收益，发现关键的SPLG价格水平","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1,"SPLG":1,"SPY":1},"content_text":"lechatnoir The US stock market has defied Wall Street strategists’ opinions that were somewhat gloomy at the start of the year. Driven by the Mag 7, through March 8, the S&P 500 is up close to 8%, not including dividends, outpacing the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and domestic small and mid-caps. The strong move through about 50 trading days of 2024 leaves investors wondering if a pullback may be in the works.  While momentum names have led equities higher lately, there are inklings that trendy plays like chip stocks could be reaching peak euphoria. Still, risk-on areas like crypto assert that it’s full steam ahead with the broad buying spree. Moreover, last Friday’s jobs report was exactly what the bulls wanted to see. I have a hold rating on the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPLG). The fund is comparable to the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). Later, I will outline a potential support area that US investors should focus on. But first, we will go through fundamentals and a valuation view. S&P 500 Leads Index Returns Thus Far in 2024 Seeking AlphaS&P 500 YTD Performance Heat Map FinvizAccording to the issuer, SPLG seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P 500 Index. It is a low-cost ETF that seeks to offer precise, comprehensive exposure to the US large-cap market segment, representing 80% of the US stock market. SPLG is a large ETF with almost $33 billion in assets under management as of March 8, 2024. Share-price momentum has been robust lately, earning the fund an A ETF Grade by Seeking Alpha, and that rating has sustained over the past six months. With a low 0.02% annual expense ratio, it’s actually cheaper than SPY and VOO. Its dividend rate is historically low at just 1.34% over the past 12 months but risk ratings are very strong for US large caps today, despite concentration concerns. With high liquidity, evidenced by trading volume near 8 million shares daily and a 30-day median bid/ask spread of just two basis points, investors can have confidence that the fund will yield fair prices throughout the trading day. The 4-star, Gold-rated ETF by Morningstar plots along the top row of the style box with a bent toward the growth style. With a price-to-earnings ratio now above 21, the valuation is not all that attractive for long-term investors. The quant team at BofA asserts that the S&P 500’s forward annualized return when looking out a decade is barely positive. Still, the SPLG portfolio sports a healthy 12% long-term EPS growth rate, so the resulting PEG ratio is under 2. SPLG: Portfolio & Factor Profiles MorningstarBofA: Forward US Large Cap Returns Potentially Muted Based on Starting Valuation BofA Global ResearchMicrosoft (MSFT) is the king of the S&P 500 ring today, accounting for nearly 7% of the fund, while Apple (AAPL) has fallen to less than 6% of the index fund. NVIDIA (NVDA) shares, which have surged over just about any timeframe, are now more than 5% of SPLG. Together, the top 10 positions account for nearly one-third of the ETF. SPLG: Holdings & Dividend Information Seeking Alpha Growing Concentration Risk within the SPX, Earnings Lags   Goldman Sachs High P/E Multiples Today Finviz Seasonally, SPLG tends to produce flat returns in March, but gains are solid from April through August, so be on the lookout for some turbulence over the next few weeks as we approach the end of the first quarter, but we’ve weathered what has historically been a weak period quite well lately. S&P 500 Seasonality: Bullish April-August Period Seeking Alpha The Technical Take My charting analysis tends to focus on a handful of key indicators. Let’s shake things up this time. Notice in the chart below that I have drawn Fibonacci retracement levels based on the low from last October to the most recent high. My fellow CMTs may gasp at such an assertive move – suggesting that equities have peaked for the short run – but this exercise can help investors spot where the S&P 500 may drop to on a pullback.  While the 50-day moving average is about $2.50 under SPLG’s latest price, I see potential support at the previous high-water mark near or just above $56 – that is where the 38.2% retracement comes into play. There’s also confluence with a short-term consolidation range we saw around the turn of the year. Further down, the 50% retracement (though not technically a Fibo point) is very close to the July 2023 market peak. So, keep $54 on your radar. The long-term 200-day moving average is way down at $53.40, more than 10% underneath last week’s closing price – that is where the 61.8% retracement line is painted. With a downtrending RSI momentum oscillator at the top of the graph, we must be on guard for at least a consolidation of the remarkable gains seen in the last 19 weeks. SPLG: First Support Near the Early 2022 Previous Highs Stockcharts.com The Bottom Line  I have a hold rating on SPLG based on the notion that we could see equities pare some recent gains. Given a high valuation and some signs of technical problems, some prudence here after 16 positive weeks of the last 19 is warranted.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2418724585"}