Tracking John Paulson's Paulson & Company Portfolio - Q4 2023 Update

seekingalpha03-20

John Paulson's 13F portfolio value decreased slightly from $1.12B to $1.11B in the last quarter.The top five positions in Paulson's portfolio are Madrigal Pharma, Bausch Health, Brightsphere ...

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Jamie McCarthy This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulson’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulson’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. Please visit our Tracking John Paulson’s Paulson & Company Portfolio series to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our previous update for the fund’s moves during Q3 2023. This quarter, Paulson’s 13F portfolio value decreased from ~$1.12B to ~$1.11B. There are 17 13F securities in the portfolio although only 15 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions are Madrigal Pharma, Bausch Health, BrightSphere Investment Group, NovaGold, and Perpetua Resources. They add up to ~73% of the portfolio. John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that, check-out the book “The Greatest Trade Ever”. In July 2020, Paulson announced that they are returning all outside money and are converting to a Family Office structure. Note 1: In August 2021, Paulson called a bubble in crypto (GBTC) (OTCQX:ETHE) saying “I would describe cryptocurrencies as a limited supply of nothing.” But he is not shorting crypto because of its volatility. Note 2: Paulson & Company is known to have a huge position in Fannie/Freddie (OTCQB:FNMA) (OTCQB:FMCC) although the details have not been disclosed. Stake Disposals: Horizon Therapeutics: Horizon Therapeutics was the largest 13F stake at ~22% of the portfolio. It was purchased in Q2 2017 at prices between $9.65 and $15.75 and increased by ~40% in Q4 2017 at prices between $13 and $15. There was a ~23% stake increase in Q3 2019 at prices between $23 and $28. Q2 2020 saw a ~16% selling at prices between $30 and $57 while in Q4 2020 there was a ~20% stake increase at prices between ~$67 and ~$84. Q3 2021 saw a ~23% reduction at prices between ~$92 and ~$110. Q4 2022 saw another ~75% selling at prices between ~$61.60 and ~$114. That was followed by a one-third reduction during Q1 2023 at prices between ~$107 and ~$114. The next quarter saw another ~50% selling at prices between ~$96 and ~$112. The position was rebuilt in the last quarter at prices between ~$99 and ~$116. Amgen (AMGN) acquired Horizon Therapeutics in a $116.50 all-cash deal that closed in October thereby eliminating this position. Stake Increases: Madrigal Pharma (MDGL): MDGL is a large ~23% of the portfolio stake established during Q2 2023 at prices between ~$204 and ~$312. The position was increased by 43% in the last quarter at prices between ~$146 and ~$226. This quarter saw a ~120% stake increase at prices between ~$120 and ~$237. The stock currently trades at ~$266. Note: They have a ~5.2% ownership stake in the business. NovaGold Resources (NG): NG is a large (top five) ~8% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $5 and $6.50 and that was followed with a ~13% selling in Q4 2016. Q1 2020 saw a ~15% stake increase at prices between $5.87 and $9.51 while the next quarter saw a ~12% trimming at prices between $7.40 and $12. The stock is currently at $2.62. There was a ~6% stake increase this quarter. Note: Paulson has a high cost-basis on NG and controls ~7.4% of the business. Newmark Group (NMRK): The ~3% NMRK stake saw a ~135% stake increase this quarter at prices between ~$5.25 and ~$11.15. The stock currently trades at $10.73. Kept Steady: Bausch Health Companies (BHC): BHC position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Q4 2015 also saw a ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The aggressive buying against falling prices continued in Q2 2016: ~44% increase at prices between $19 and $36. Q2 2020 saw another ~25% stake increase at ~$16.50 per share. The stock currently trades at $9.54, and the stake is now the second largest position in the portfolio at ~19%. BrightSphere Investment Group (BSIG): BSIG is currently the third largest 13F stake at 15.48% of the portfolio. It was built in Q4 2018 at prices between $10 and $13.30. Q1 2019 saw a huge ~285% stake increase at prices between $11 and $14.25. There was a ~55% reduction in Q4 2021 at ~$31.50 per share as they participated in a fixed-tender-offer by the company. The stock currently trades at $22.35. Note: Paulson’s ownership stake in BSIG is ~20%. Perpetua Resources (PPTA): The ~7% PPTA stake was purchased in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$6 and ~$11. There was a ~18% stake increase in Q3 2021 at prices between ~$4.75 and ~$7.70. The stock currently trades at $3.97. Note: Paulson & Company has a one-third ownership stake in the business. AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 6.47% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. Q4 2015 saw a ~9% trimming while the following quarter saw a one-third reduction at prices between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 saw another ~20% reduction at prices between $13 and $18. H1 2020 saw a ~45% reduction at prices between $14 and $30. That was followed with a ~14% selling in Q4 2020. Q3 2022 saw another one-third selling at prices between ~$12 and ~$16. That was followed with a ~80% reduction next quarter at prices between ~$12.25 and ~$19.75. The stake was rebuilt during Q1 2023 at prices between ~$17 and ~$24. The stock is currently at $20.27. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM): The 3.88% AEM position came about as a result of Agnico’s acquisition of Kirkland Lake Gold in an all-stock deal (0.7935 shares of AEM for each share held) that closed last January. Paulson & Company had a 1.303M share stake in Kirkland Lake Gold for which they received these shares. There was a ~270% stake increase during Q4 2022 at prices between ~$40 and ~$53.50. Q1 2023 saw a ~80% reduction at prices between ~$45 and ~$58. AEM currently trades at $54.37. Thryv Holdings (THRY): The 3.67% THRY stake was established in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$8 and ~$14. Q1 2021 saw a ~12% trimming at $27 per share. Next two quarters saw another ~25% selling at prices between ~$27 and ~$41.50. The stock currently trades at $22.05. There was a minor ~7% trimming during Q4 2022. Note: Paulson & Company has a 5.8% ownership stake in the business. International Tower Hill Mines (THM): THM is a 3.27% of the portfolio stake established in the 2013-2015 timeframe at a very low cost-basis. Q4 2020 also saw the purchase of around 2.34M shares at ~$1.40. The stock is now at 67c. Note: Paulson has a ~32% ownership stake in International Tower Hill Mines. Seabridge Gold (SA): The 2.27% SA position saw a ~125% increase in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$17 and ~$21. There was a roughly one-third increase in Q2 2021 at prices between ~$16.15 and ~$19.75. It currently trades at $12.72. SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM): The 1.94% of the portfolio stake in SSRM saw a ~140% stake increase in Q4 2021 at prices between ~$14.50 and ~$20. There was a ~35% selling during Q4 2022 at prices between ~$13 and ~$16.35. The stock currently trades at $4.02. Equinox Gold (EQX), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), and Tellurian Inc. (TELL): These small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes were kept steady this quarter. The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulson’s US stock holdings in Q4 2023:   John Paulson - Paulson and Company Portfolio - Q4 2023 13F Report Q/Q Comparison (John Vincent (author)) Source: John Vincent. Data constructed from Paulson & Company’s 13F filings for Q3 2023 and Q4 2023.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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