FireFly soars on bullish copper market and growing resource outlook

LiveWire03-22

The run-up in the copper price to more than $US4/lb is providing a welcome distraction from the woes of the nickel, lithium and maybe iron ore sectors on the ASX. The push through $US4/lb still leaves...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFireFly soars on bullish copper market and growing resource outlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-22 06:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/firefly-soars-on-bullish-copper-market-and-growing-resource-outlook><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The run-up in the copper price to more than $US4/lb is providing a welcome distraction from the woes of the nickel, lithium and maybe iron ore sectors on the ASX.\nThe push through $US4/lb still leaves...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/firefly-soars-on-bullish-copper-market-and-growing-resource-outlook\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"XKO.AU","symbol_name":"标普/澳交所 300指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/firefly-soars-on-bullish-copper-market-and-growing-resource-outlook","article_id":"2421053470","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/firefly-soars-on-bullish-copper-market-and-growing-resource-outlook","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2421053470","pubTimestamp":1711061627,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The run-up in the copper price to more than $US4/lb is providing a welcome distraction from the woes of the nickel, lithium and maybe iron ore sectors on the ASX.The push through $US4/lb still leaves the red metal well short of its all-time high of $US4.85/lb in early 2021.But the current price  does represent an 11-month high, and all ASX copper boats from explorers to producers are accordingly floating higher.FireFly Metals  is in that category. Last year it acquired the high-grade Green Bay copper-gold project on the shuttered Baie Verte peninsula in Newfoundland, Canada, for a knockdown price of $65 million in staged payments.The knockdown price reflected past difficulties under the previous under-capitalised owner which spent $250m getting the project into production. Under the leadership of Steve Parsons of Bellevue  fame, FireFly is working on a bigger and better Green Bay when it is returned to production.FireFly shares have performed strongly recently, rising 7c in Thursday’s ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","BOE.AU":"BOSS ENERGY LTD","ASM.AU":"AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC MATERIA","FID.AU":"FIDUCIAN GROUP LTD","BK7507":"资源股","BK7104":"黄金","FFM.AU":"FireFly Metals Ltd","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD","BK7511":"ESG概念","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7062":"资产管理与托管银行","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","BK7083":"煤与消费用燃料","FID":"First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF","BGL.AU":"BELLEVUE GOLD LTD"},"translate_title":"萤火虫在看涨的铜市场和不断增长的资源前景中飙升","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ASM.AU":1,"BGL.AU":1,"BOE.AU":1,"FFM.AU":1,"FID":1,"FID.AU":1,"BHP.AU":0.69,"XAO.AU":0.69,"XJO.AU":0.69,"XKO.AU":0.69},"content_text":"The run-up in the copper price to more than $US4/lb is providing a welcome distraction from the woes of the nickel, lithium and maybe iron ore sectors on the ASX.\nThe push through $US4/lb still leaves the red metal well short of its all-time high of $US4.85/lb in early 2021.\nBut the current price ($US4.07/lb) does represent an 11-month high, and all ASX copper boats from explorers to producers are accordingly floating higher.\nFresh from last year’s $9.6 billion acquisition of South Australian copper producer OZ Minerals, BHP no less gave a strong hint last month that copper was poised for good times ahead.\nBHP believes that more than twice the amount of copper consumed in the last 30 years will be required in the next 30 years if there is any hope that the electrification of everything to meet net zero by 2050 is to be achieved.\nBut it had also long-thought the market would be well supplied until the back third of the decade. In February it changed its view in a big way.\nBHP now thinks the supply deficit could well come much earlier, and be more “pronounced” than it had been thinking.\nAdd to that the recent need for Chinese copper smelters to curtail production because of the tight supply in copper concentrates in response to a myriad of supply side issues, and copper’s move to more than $4/lb comes as no surprise.\nThere could be more to come too according to the big investment banks. Goldman Sachs is tipping $US4.53/lb inside of 12 months, and Citi this week upgraded its price deck to $US4.15/lb in CY2024 and $US4.65/lb in CY2025.\nShould BHP’s forecast of a potential pronounced supply deficit within five years hold true, the market will front the situation by pushing copper to higher levels still.\nIt is that outlook that as mentioned earlier, is lifting all copper stocks. The best performed of them are taking the bullish outlook and creating additional upside through project enhancements.\nFireFly Metals (ASX:FFM) is in that category. Last year it acquired the high-grade Green Bay copper-gold project on the shuttered Baie Verte peninsula in Newfoundland, Canada, for a knockdown price of $65 million in staged payments.\nThe knockdown price reflected past difficulties under the previous under-capitalised owner which spent $250m getting the project into production. Under the leadership of Steve Parsons of Bellevue (ASX:BGL) fame, FireFly is working on a bigger and better Green Bay when it is returned to production.\nDrilling results released during the week demonstrated that the current resource (811,000t of copper equivalent) will continue to grow in support of a decision to return the operation to production, with analysts suggesting the potential for annual output of as much as 60,000tpa.\nFireFly shares have performed strongly recently, rising 7c in Thursday’s market to 71.5c for a diluted market cap of $280 million. That is a fraction of the market caps of companies with similar (or lesser) production profiles, albeit they are in production.\nLocal analysts got to see the project up nice and close with a visit earlier this month.\nEuroz Hartleys was on the trip and came back with a $1 a share price target (up from 70c) while fellow traveller Canaccord was higher still at $1.40 a share (up from $1.35).\nNeither share price targets relied on copper price doing something special from here on. But copper might well do so.\nUranium:                                                                                      \nThe question being asked is whether value has returned to the ASX uranium stocks in the wake of the sell-off in response to the recent 20% fall in (spot) uranium prices.\nThe answer would seem to be yes. The uranium price remains at 16-year highs, with the year-on-year price gain as strong as could be hoped for at 72%.\nThe recent price retreat from $US107/lb to $US86/lb has been put down to a buyers’ strike at three-digit prices and profit taking by hedge funds that had ridden the price up from last year’s lower level.\nThere has also been disappointment among the uranium bulls that the prosect of sharply lower output forecasts for the next couple of years from Canada’s Cameco and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom did not eventuate as they had hoped.\nEven so, the big thematic that the world is increasingly turning to uranium to decarbonise energy has not gone away. Nor has the situation where the world’s current nuclear fleet consumes 190Mlbs annually compared with mine production of 140Mlbs.\nKazatomprom summed up the supply challenge ahead nicely, telling investors last week that even with expansions at existing mines and new mine start-ups in the mid-2020s, there will not be sufficient uranium to cover requirements post-2030.\n“In the current pricing environment another Kazatomprom will be needed to cover market needs.,” it said.\nThat really means something as Kazatomprom currently supplies 40% of the world’s uranium (20% on an equity accounted basis). It would be like saying another three Saudi Arabia’s will be needed to cover oil demand post-2030.\nAnd then there is the breakdown of relations between Niger and the US, with Niger’s junta  saying the US  military and intelligence apparatus was no longer welcome in the country. Niger supplies 7.5% of world supply, most of it going to France.\nWhile the uranium thematic remains in place, ASX uranium stocks can best make headway ahead of a three-digit uranium price returning by enhancing their offering.\nBoss Energy (ASX:BOE) has done just that by announcing that drilling at its 30% owned Alta Mesa uranium project in the US (first production from a re-started operation planned for mid-year ahead of ramping up to 1.5Mlbs annually) was yielding thicker intersections at higher grades.\nThe results suggest the potential for increased production over a longer operational life, with the Alta Mesa interest being in addition to Boss’ re-start of its Honeymoon project in South Australia where the first drum of yellowcake is not far off now.\nMacquarie has a $6 a share 12-month price target on the stock. That compares with $4.98 a share in Thursday’s market and the company’s high of $6.11 on February 2 before the uranium started losing ground.\nASM & Meteoric:\nTalking about things critical/strategic, the US has flagged its interest in ponying up with $US850m ($A$1.28 billion) in debt funding to make projects held by two ASX companies a reality.\nThe underlying theme with both is to reduce China’s grip on magnet rare earths supply, along with other critical metals.\nAnnounced on the same day, Australian Strategic Materials (ASX:ASM) said it had received a non-binding and conditional letter of interest (LoI) from the Export Bank of the United States (EXIM) for a debt funding package of up to $US600m, while Meteoric said the same for up to $US250m.\nAccepting the non-binding nature of the LoIs, the market was happed to push ASM 20.5% higher to $1.43 in  Thursday’s market  while Meteoric’s closed the day flat at 24c.\nThe reason for the difference in the market’s response is likely due to the big difference between the estimated capital cost of ASM’s $1.67 billion Dubbo rare earths-zirconium-niobium-hafnium project in NSW, and that of Meteoric’s as yet unpriced Caldeira rare earths project in Brazil.\nEven with ASM also having a letter of support for $A200m from Export Finance of Australia for Dubbo, there is a sizeable funding hole to fill. On the other hand, Caldeira’s development in to a world-scale rare earth’s producer would likely cost, or be around. the $US250 EXIM has flagged its interest in providing.\nActually, Foster Stockbroking reckons the debt provision indication from EXIM could potentially cover all of the post final investment (FID) decision funding needs for Caldeira.\n“On our numbers we estimate funding for Caldeira post-FID to be US$230M - comprising project capex and working capital - suggesting that the maximum of the facility could potentially cover it all.’’\n“It is not hard to see why EXIM has entered into the LoI when one considers Caldeira's prominent attributes.  These include standout metallurgy engendering low technical risk, and both low capex and opex.  Also the project's location in Brazil makes it a naturally proximate source of rare earth for potential US offtakers,’’ Foster said.\nIt has a 42c price target on the stock which is in  keeping with the broad sweep of 40c-plus valuations on the stock in the market.\nSo while it was nice to see ASM rewarded with 20% price lift in response to the EXIM news, Meteoric missed out on its EXIM boost for no good reason, initially at least anyway.\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2421053470"}