The contrarian take on the Australian market (and stocks to watch)

LiveWire03-21

Please note this interview was filmed on Tuesday 12 March 2024. Fund profile Name of the fund and ASX ticker: WAM Leaders Limited (ASX: WLE) Asset Class: Australian equities Investment ...

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What the ASX bulls might be missing in today’s market. However, Matthew Haupt, Lead Portfolio Manager for WAM Leaders  is wary and taking a more defensive approach. You could say in light of the recent reporting season that this is a measured view.“We think interest rate cuts will come, but they’ll come off the back of worsening data, which won’t be supportive for valuations,” he says.“Woolworths has gone through a few issues in the short term. We’ve had a change of CEO, the ACCC is watching closely. There’s a lot of scrutiny but we think that sector will perform well,” he says.Spun out of Amcor , Orora recently made a large acquisition in the form of French company Saverglass.“The market is very sceptical around premium wine and spirits. They are saying de-stocking phases will go on for longer, and we think that’s actually turning now,” Haupt says.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7507":"资源股","CGF.AU":"CHALLENGER LTD","QVE.AU":"QV EQUITIES LTD","WLE.AU":"WAM LEADERS LTD","ORG.AU":"ORIGIN ENERGY LTD","BK7040":"食品零售","AMC.AU":"AMCOR PLC-CDI","BK7006":"电力公用事业","BK7130":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK7511":"ESG概念","ORA.AU":"ORORA LTD","WOW.AU":"WOOLWORTHS GROUP LTD","BK7112":"其它综合性金融服务","AGL.AU":"AGL ENERGY LTD","BK7063":"纸材料包装","BK7136":"复合型公用事业","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","APA.AU":"APA GROUP","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","BK7501":"新冠治疗股","BK7148":"燃气公用事业","BK7053":"金属与玻璃容器"},"translate_title":"反向投资者对澳大利亚市场的看法（以及值得关注的股票）","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC.AU":1,"XKO.AU":1,"XJO.AU":1,"XAO.AU":1,"WOW.AU":1,"WLE.AU":1,"QVE.AU":1,"ORG.AU":1,"ORA.AU":1,"CGF.AU":1,"APA.AU":1,"AGL.AU":1},"content_text":"Please note this interview was filmed on Tuesday 12 March 2024.\nFund profile\n\n\nName of the\n     fund and ASX ticker: WAM Leaders Limited (ASX: WLE)\n\n\nAsset Class:\n     Australian equities\n\nInvestment\n     objective: To deliver a stream of fully franked dividends, to provide\n     capital growth over the medium-to-long term and to preserve capital by\n     investing in large-cap undervalued companies.\n\nLink to Fund\n     page: (VIEW LINK)\n\n\nWhat the ASX bulls might be missing in today’s market\nEarlier this year, Livewire asked a range of fund managers how they were feeling about the market – the answer was \"greedy\". The bulls were out in force. After spending much of the past couple of years talking about recession, there was optimism in the air and a desire to spend (on stocks, that is).\nHowever, Matthew Haupt, Lead Portfolio Manager for WAM Leaders (ASX: WLE) is wary and taking a more defensive approach. You could say in light of the recent reporting season that this is a measured view. \n“Why are valuations high and what are we seeing in the data to support that? It’s actually contrary to what we’re seeing in the data where there are signs of stress through credit. Also, the job market is weakening, and retail sales is weakening,” says Haupt.\nHe credits the general exuberance to the market hopes of rate cuts this year. \n“We think interest rate cuts will come, but they’ll come off the back of worsening data, which won’t be supportive for valuations,” he says.\nHe is currently running 3-4% cash in the portfolio, which has been known to go as high as 14% in the early stages of the COVID pandemic. To get to that point again, Haupt notes there would need to be a severe market shock.\nWhere to invest across Australia\nValuations are high across sectors at present, but Haupt does see selective opportunities.\nIn what may come as a surprise to many, Haupt tips value in consumer staples.\n“Woolworths (ASX: WOW) has gone through a few issues in the short term. We’ve had a change of CEO, the ACCC is watching closely. There’s a lot of scrutiny but we think that sector will perform well,” he says.\nHe also holds a positive view on the utilities sector, pointing to Origin (ASX: ORG), AGL (ASX: AGL) and APA (ASX: APA) as ones to watch.\n“If we go into this interest rate cutting cycle, which we think will happen over the next 12-24 months, utilities do very well,” he says.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIn discussion at the Australian Stock Exchange in Sydney.\nTwo contrarian stock picks\nIt’s never been a secret that Haupt likes holding stocks that other people don’t, where such stocks adhere to certain quality standards.\nA few examples follow:\n1.    Orora (ASX: ORA)\nSpun out of Amcor (ASX: AMC), Orora recently made a large acquisition in the form of French company Saverglass.\n“The market is very sceptical around premium wine and spirits. They are saying de-stocking phases will go on for longer, and we think that’s actually turning now,” Haupt says.\n2. Challenger (ASX: CGF) \nThe investment management business had a challenging 2023, though its 2024 interim report showed a promising boost.\n“We think the interest rate cutting cycle provides support for their asset base,” says Haupt.\nOther themes discussed\nIn the interview above, Haupt also discusses the bid for QV Equities (ASX: QVE) and how he sees it adding to the WAM Leaders portfolio. If dividends are an important part of your portfolio, you may also want to tune in for his discussion on managing this income stream in an environment where we’re seeing dividend cuts.\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2421088627"}