Rotation Is Keeping This Expansion And Bull Market Alive

seekingalpha03-25

The Fed plans to reduce short-term interest rates gradually, signaling a positive rate of change in monetary policy.The manufacturing sector and housing market are reaccelerating, offsetting slower ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRotation Is Keeping This Expansion And Bull Market Alive\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-25 21:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680243-rotation-is-keeping-this-expansion-and-bull-market-alive><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed plans to reduce short-term interest rates gradually, signaling a positive rate of change in monetary policy.The manufacturing sector and housing market are reaccelerating, offsetting slower ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680243-rotation-is-keeping-this-expansion-and-bull-market-alive\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"UPRO","symbol_name":"三倍做多标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680243-rotation-is-keeping-this-expansion-and-bull-market-alive","article_id":"2422512176","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1453953453/image_1453953453.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422512176","pubTimestamp":1711372227,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The Fed plans to reduce short-term interest rates gradually, signaling a positive rate of change in monetary policy.The manufacturing sector and housing market are reaccelerating, offsetting slower co","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","RSP":"平均加权指数ETF-Rydex S&P","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","SRTY":"罗素2000指数三倍做空ETF-ProShares","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TNA":"罗素2000指数三倍做多ETF-Direxion","TWM":"罗素2000指数两倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IWM":"罗素2000指数ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UWM":"罗素2000指数ETF两倍做多","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","RWM":"罗素2000指数反向ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TZA":"罗素2000指数三倍做空ETF","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IWN":"罗素2000价值股指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IWO":"罗素2000成长股指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2"},"translate_title":"轮换让这种扩张和牛市继续存在","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IWM":1,"RSP":1,"SPY":0.82,"SH":0.6,"IWO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"RWM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IWN":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SRTY":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TNA":0.6,"TWM":0.6,"TZA":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"UWM":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"MRTYmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6},"content_text":"The Fed plans to reduce short-term interest rates gradually, signaling a positive rate of change in monetary policy.The manufacturing sector and housing market are reaccelerating, offsetting slower consumer spending growth.Market participation is broadening as the Magnificent 7 technology stocks give way to other market constituents, leading to expectations of lower interest rates and better earnings growth.   tadamichiInvestors breathed a sigh of relief last week to learn that the Fed has not deviated from its plan to reduce short-term interest rates by three quarter-point increments between now and year end, which should be followed by several more in 2025 and 2026 until a neutral rate closer to 2.5-3% is achieved. The timing of the rate cuts, which was of paramount importance last year, has become less of a concern, largely because of the economic resilience we have seen so far this year. The most important thing is that this is a positive rate of change for monetary policy, which is not in a panic, but responding to the cooling inflationary environment and softer rate of growth in the economy. In other words, the soft landing that has gone from a pipe dream to the consensus view on Wall Street is at hand. That is why markets have performed so well since last October.   Edward JonesThere are two forms of rotation that I discussed as critical to my outlook for 2024, and both finally look to be taking shape. The first is the rotation within the economy in terms of sourcing its growth. As the rate of consumer spending has slowed, the manufacturing sector and housing market are starting to reaccelerate. The consumer will always be the most dominant factor in the economy, but these two sectors can help to offset slower rates of consumer spending growth. Last week, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to a 21-month high of 52.5, which is now well above the 50 level that marks expansion.   TradingEconomicsIn addition, the housing market looks like it is awakening from its long slumber, as new listings are on the rise and existing home sales soared in February to an annualized rate of 4.38 million. That is the highest level in a year, which could be due in part to the modest fall in mortgage rates. According to Zillow, there were more homes on the market last month than in any other February since 2020. Growth in the manufacturing sector and housing market will not offset a sharp downturn in consumer spending, but they can help to buffer a softening in spending, which is what I see happening today.   TradingEconomicsThe second form of rotation is within the stock market. We are realizing an improvement in breadth whereby the Magnificent 7 names that have accounted for most of the S&P 500’s gains over the past year are starting to give way to the rest of the market’s constituents in terms of leadership. In 2024, three of the magnificent ones are now trailing the S&P 500 index, while just Meta Platforms and Nvidia remain as standouts.   BloombergYet over the past month, we have seen the equally weighted S&P 500 (RSP) and the Russell 2000 small-cap index (IWM) outperform the S&P 500, which has been carried by the Magnificent 7 technology stocks. I expect this to continue as market participation broadens on expectations for lower short-term interest rates, disinflation, and better-than-expected earnings growth. Still, I would not be surprised to see a pullback of 3-5% in the major market averages between now and year end. That should be a buying opportunity.   StockchartsThe main reason I see any pullback as being shallow is that there is a tremendous amount of fuel at the market’s disposal. I have chronicled the growing mountain of money market reserves that enjoy a practically risk-free yield of better than 5%. Goldman Sachs estimates the percentage of these funds owned by households stands at $3.8 trillion, which is still $1.5 trillion above pre-pandemic levels. That is ample buying power to drive risk asset prices higher as this year progresses. Another source of fuel that I did not account for is the surge in corporate buybacks that Goldman Sachs estimates will rise 13% this year to $925 billion and another 16% in 2025 to $1,075 trillion.   MarketWatch I am always on the lookout for things that can go wrong to undermine the bullish narrative, but I do not see anything to be concerned about today. Rotation is keeping this expansion and bull market alive and well.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2422512176"}