MSCI: Resilient Business Model With A Best-In-Class Valuation, Signaling A Strong Buy Rating

seekingalpha03-25

MSCI has been enjoying favorable double-digit financial growth with absurdly high free cash flow margins in an index business with high switching costs.While the stock has shown minimal movement over ...

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Signaling A Strong Buy Rating\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-25 23:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680271-msci-resilient-business-model-best-in-class-valuation-strong-buy-rating><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MSCI has been enjoying favorable double-digit financial growth with absurdly high free cash flow margins in an index business with high switching costs.While the stock has shown minimal movement over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680271-msci-resilient-business-model-best-in-class-valuation-strong-buy-rating\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999014914.USD","symbol_name":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) 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(USD) ACC","MSCI":"MSCI Inc"},"translate_title":"摩根士丹利资本国际：具有弹性的商业模式，估值一流，显示出强劲的买入评级","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TTM.AU":1,"MORN":1,"MSCI":1,"NIM":1,"NIM.AU":1,"LTM.AU":1,"IEFA":1,"HYDB":1,"GHG":1,"SPGI":1,"TTM":1,"FDS":1},"content_text":"MSCI has been enjoying favorable double-digit financial growth with absurdly high free cash flow margins in an index business with high switching costs.While the stock has shown minimal movement over the past year, its P/E ratio has reached levels not seen over the last four years, despite the PEG ratio remaining elevated.Combining the great business with its superior valuation and growth compared to peers, MSCI demands a strong buy rating.littleclie The shares of MSCI (NYSE:MSCI) have been doing nothing over the past year, with a slight increase of only 1.1% during the previous 251 trading days. Despite the stock not following the upward movements of the general market, in this analysis I will explain to you why I believe this stock is still a strong buy. For that, I will guide you through MSCI's business model, latest earnings, growth opportunities, risks, and comps valuations with competitors such as S&P. MSCI Business MSCI or Morgan Stanley Capital International, was established in 1986 when Morgan Stanley bought the licensing rights of the of Capital International indexes. In 2007, the company went public and two years later, Morgan Stanley divested completely from its MSCI's ownership. The company is well known especially for their international index business that currently offers more than 160,000 indexes to asset owners to benchmark their investment funds. MSCI has a broad range of equity indexes that are constructed based on market cap, factors, or even client-designed indexes for more detailed construction requirements. They also offer direct indexing which helps clients to benchmark upon points such as tax reduction objectives. Last, they offer ESG & Climate indexes for investment funds with those mandates, and asset classes like fixed income and alternatives. Even though an ETF provider such as BlackRock could create its own proprietary index to benchmark their funds, using a consolidated brand such as MSCI helps bring reputation and trust to their ETFs. That's why only a small amount of BlackRock's ETFs use their own proprietary indexes as it's the case with the iShares High Yield Systematic Bond ETF (HYDB) that tracks the BlackRock High Yield Defensive Bond Index, for example. Source: MSCI's Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation An exceptional characteristic of the index business is that on its own, it really has high switching costs for asset owners. Imagine the situation where Blackrock wanted to end business with MSCI on its iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) that has around $115 billion in clients' assets. Even though the change of index is completely legal, and most likely only requires to notify investors within two-months in advance, the brand recognition would suffer, and overall, it has not been a common practice over the years. Typically, the way the partnership works, is that MSCI charges a daily asset-based fee based on the evolving AUM of the ETF or mutual fund. The terms of the fee structure heavily vary based on factors such as delivery frequency, data type, and the costs associated with running the index. In Q4 2023, asset-based fees represented 19% of MSCI's revenues, and on average 2.5 basis points was the quarterly fee from $1.469 trillion in AUM from products linked to MSCI's equity indexes. For the full year of 2023, MSCI ended up gaining $591 million in revenue from asset-based fees. However, and what makes this business more appealing, is that 73% of their revenue sources come from recurring subscriptions. The previous segment leverages the company in terms of financial forecasting and reduces uncertainty in revenue prediction as compared to other sources that are inherently volatile. Source: MSCI's Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation The analytics segment is also an important source of revenue for MSCI as it accounts for 24% of the business. Solutions for institutional investors for portfolio management and reporting are offered and include tools such as mean variance optimization, value-at-risk calculations, performance and risk attributions, back testing, sensitivity analysis, and a big et cetera of further tools that are also available. In addition, they also provide ESG & Climate data to institutional investors, and that constitutes 11% of the company's revenues. Source: Morningstar Direct As the US experiences an ESG backlash, due to politization of the matter and substantial outflows in a rising market, most likely the growth opportunity to sell ESG data and index licensing would come from Europe, where the majority of the ESG funds are originated (84%), and stricter mandatory ESG reporting regulations would start running this year for most of the public companies. Also, this new regulation will not only affect public European enterprises (including some micro-caps), but also public non-European companies that generate more than €150 million in annual revenues within the 27 countries of the European Union. Besides the auditors, sustainability experts, and data providers, would this regulation be a net positive event that would boost the euro zone sustainable economic growth? Time will tell. Source: Valero In my personal opinion, companies who do well on ESG are the ones who can afford it because they have great businesses and have excess free cashflows to finance it. Let me give some examples from the factors highlighted on the image above. Starting with the E, if you are a bank with a lot of free cash flow, you can then have the budget to fill your buildings with solar panels and reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moving to the S, if you are a company where the revenue per employee is among the highest, bringing larger employee benefits it's a more doable task such as providing free lunches, gym, insurance, psychologist, dental, etc. Finally, on the G, it's easier to find a diverse board when you are a huge company, that many qualified professionals from all genders, races, and backgrounds, would love to be part of the board of directors, so bringing diversity to the table isn't a hard task. The regulation also applies to micro-cap companies with more than 250 employees and €40 million in revenue. The question is, would these micro-cap companies be able to do well on ESG without sacrificing financial stability and outlook? In my opinion there is an inherent trade-off and if European investors largely ponder the ESG score, these companies who can't afford it would get underinvested resulting in job losses. Again, just my opinion, feel free to disagree in the comments, but on what we can all agree, is that MSCI could benefit from this new EU regulation from selling ESG related products to European asset owners. Latest Earnings Source: Author's editing | Data: Seeking Alpha MSCI has demonstrated resiliency on their financials growth trajectory over the past troubling year for the market. In 2022 for example, both the World Index and S&P 500 stumbled by -18.1% on a total return basis. Yet, MSCI was able to maintain its revenue growth slightly close to its historical median level of revenue growth at 10.4% during FY 2022, and in FY 2023 it grew to $2.529 billion revenues. As aforementioned, 74% of MSCI's revenues come from subscriptions that are more inelastic to market movements as compared to asset-based fees. In terms of gross profit and operating income, a similar scenario happened. Although, the previous metrics growth decelerated in FY 22, they continued growing at similar rates of former years. Last, in 2023 they had their best year in terms of growth as their net income grew 19.6% ending on their highest amount ever, delivering $1.149 billion in net income. As you probably realized from the previous paragraph, the net income margin (NIM) of this company has to be insane. And yes, it is! MSCI currently has a NIM of 45.4% which is absurdly good as the sector median stands at 23.7%. Also, as it's a light business with few needs to further implement capex investments, the free cash flow to equity margin - or leverage free cash flow - lies at 36.9% when the sector median situates at 18.8%. Almost twice as good as the industry. That high free cash flow to equity, gives ample room to the company to implement corporate actions such as share buy backs or dividend payments. Last, with a high net income and a low capital base, their return on total assets (TTM) stands at 20.8% vs. the sector median of 1.1%. Source: Author's compilations | Data: Seeking Alpha Even though there are many valuations tools that analyst use to come up with the fair value of the company, on an ideal scenario, free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is the one metric that analyst pay the most attention. As seen above, MSCI has increased their FCFE from $376M to $933M in seven years, which translates to an impressive CAGR of 16.4%. As a consequence, the company has been able to spend $1.972 billion in share buybacks since 2016. Something interesting to note is that MSCI has a negative book value. As a first impression, this might look like a sign of concern. Nonetheless, if you have a look at their financials, it seems that since 2018 up till mid-2022, the company has been in the cycle of issuing and refinancing debt due to lower rates during those periods. At the same time, the company has been very active in buying back shares, as commented above. These two facts made me believe that the company has been issuing debt to buy back shares. As a whole, this is not bad as long as the earnings yield is higher than the after-tax cost of debt, as the repurchase would actually increase earnings per share. Additionally, it could also be a cheaper way of financing if after-tax interest payments on debt is lower than dividend payments on shares outstanding. Going back to the negative book value, remember that as debt is issued the liabilities increase, and as shares are repurchased, the asset and equity decrease. Therefore, the effect on the book value is higher when issuing debt. Also, all of the other three companies that I will use next in this analysis for a comps comparison, have a negative tangible book value. Source: MSCI's 2023 10-K report Taking a deeper look at MSCI's current debt outstanding on the image above, we can see that the biggest chunk of debt will mature just after 2029, and their interest coverage ratio allows operating income to cover by 9.1x the current net interest expense which is considered safe. Comps Analysis Source: Seeking Alpha For this peer comparison, I selected S&P Global (SPGI), Morningstar (MORN), and FactSet Research Systems (FDS), so let's begin. In terms of quant ratings, MSCI has the highest category among peers in terms of growth and profitability. Ultimately, the two most important ratings, in my opinion, as those are the ones that directly measure the company's financials and not the stock price movement, or analyst forecasts. Source: Author's compilations | Data: Seeking Alpha In terms of valuation, all peers do poorly with an F rating. Nonetheless, it's important to take the valuation rating with a grain of salt. As I have mentioned in some of my previous analysis, the level of the P/E ratio is irrelevant. As long as the company is delivering an EPS growth that justifies the high multiple, there is no need to worry about it. Nonetheless, PEG ratio should be analyzed to get a metric that takes P/E and growth expectations into the equation. In this case, all peer players analyzed have high PEG ratios above two, suggesting that the industry might be momentarily overvalued. Taking this analysis one step further, if you look at the full Financial Exchanges and Data industry classification within Seeking Alpha, all fifteen companies in developed markets with a market cap above $1 billion, have a red valuation rating of F or D. However, it's worth mentioning that MSCI situates close to the median in all three valuations from the image above. But again, what if the market has adapted to those high multiples within that peer group? Perhaps there's an implied premium? Well, that could be true. Therefore, what's best to do in these situations is to check where the company's P/E multiple has traded on average vs. where is it now. Source: Author's compilations | Data: FactSet To overcome the aforementioned hypothesis, I calculated the 10-year P/E ratio using the last twelve months (LTM) data for all the companies in the peer group. Then I compared it to their current trading P/E. As shown in the table above, we can conclude that MSCI is the only company undervalued at -12.7% compared to its historical average, trading at 35.8x vs. 44.1x. Contrarily, this analysis indicates that S&P Global is the most overvalued stock relative to its historical performance, trading at nearly twice the historical average. Source: Author's compilations | Data: FactSet Above is a line chart that illustrates how the P/E ratio of MSCI has evolved over the years, showing a drop during 2021 and consolidation since 2022. Once again, let me remind you that I found the growth and profitability ratings from Seeking Alpha as the most important ratings to look at. And also, let me remind you that MSCI has a better rating than its peers within these respects. Let me show you this in more detail. Source: Author's compilations | Data: Seeking Alpha As seen in the relevant metrics presented above, MSCI ranks either as #1 or #2. In terms of growth, it has had the highest EPS growth over the last three years and the second highest in terms of revenue. Next, in profitability, it has higher margins than all its peers with the exception to levered FCF, where it stands second. Last, in terms of return on assets, MSCI has by far the best metric of ROA at 23%. Full disclosure: it made no sense to add ROE as all companies currently have negative tangible book values. Stock Movements vs. Peers Data by YCharts Having a look at the momentum of the last year, MSCI was undoubtedly the laggard of the peer group. While SPGI and MORN grew by double digits of 26.0% and 68.8%, respectively, MSCI only grew by a modest 2.2% including the dividend payment of $5.74. When summing this underperformance to the aforementioned more appealing metrics such as valuation, growth, and profitability margins than the peer group, it gives me the confidence to build a bullish scenario for the stock. Risks Source: TradingView The three most popular indexes offered are the MSCI World, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI EAFE. The latter includes 21 developed markets excluding the US and Canada and is licensed by Blackrock to form the ETF with the highest AUM that track an MSCI index, the (IEFA). As seen above, the international exposure of MSCI is considerable. It weights almost 60% of the total revenues, and approximately three-fifths of the indexed AUM is invested in securities that are denominated in foreign currencies. Therefore, MSCI has an FX risks exposure in their financials. In a way, this could be positive as this means that the company's business is more diversified within economies, but at the same time, it could deteriorate US returns when foreign currencies depreciate against the dollar. Currently, the company attributes its growth to all major segments, as these are expanding their top lines at double digits. However, major slowdowns could affect the company's ability to keep up with the high free cash flow margins and therefore affecting their ability to pay the high amount of debt they have due, particularly after 2029. This could potentially result in a share buyback suspension or on a dividend cut. Conclusion  At its current state, MSCI complies with the type of companies I like. They have a solid business with strong brand recognition (within institutional investors, of course), double digit growth on the top and bottom lines, and an undervalued valuation to its own history and peers. As mentioned before, the PEG ratio on a standalone basis stands overvalued above two. However, this is the same scenario for the other companies in the peer group, suggesting that there is an implied premium on financial data companies. All these combined gives me the confidence to rate this stock with a strong buy for mid to long-term investments. If you want to do a small swing trade, it is probably not the right set-up as the volatility is currently pretty low, and volatile earnings will just come in a month from now at the end of April.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2422542635"}