SPHQ: High Quality ETF Designed For Long-Term Investors

seekingalpha03-25

SPHQ tracks the S&P 500 Quality Index, selecting 100 of the highest-quality large-cap U.S. stocks. Its expense ratio is 0.15% and the ETF has $8.69 billion in assets under management.Backtested Index ...

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Its expense ratio is 0.15% and the ETF has $8.69 billion in assets under management.Backtested Index ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680270-sphq-high-quality-etf-designed-for-long-term-investors\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPHQ: High Quality ETF Designed For Long-Term Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPHQ: High Quality ETF Designed For Long-Term Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-25 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680270-sphq-high-quality-etf-designed-for-long-term-investors><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SPHQ tracks the S&P 500 Quality Index, selecting 100 of the highest-quality large-cap U.S. stocks. Its expense ratio is 0.15% and the ETF has $8.69 billion in assets under management.Backtested Index ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680270-sphq-high-quality-etf-designed-for-long-term-investors\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMZN","symbol_name":"亚马逊","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4680270-sphq-high-quality-etf-designed-for-long-term-investors","article_id":"2422542680","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1553376727/image_1553376727.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422542680","pubTimestamp":1711380606,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SPHQ tracks the S&P 500 Quality Index, selecting 100 of the highest-quality large-cap U.S. stocks. 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Its expense ratio is 0.15% and the ETF has $8.69 billion in assets under management.Backtested Index results indicate the Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3% per year since 1995. However, these results are incredibly deceiving and irrelevant.Today's largest companies are almost all high-quality, which is why the S&P 500 Quality Index has delivered nearly identical returns compared to its benchmark over the last decade.Instead, SPHQ's benefits include guaranteed exposure to the quality factor and relatively low overlap with SPY, indicating it's an appropriate complementary ETF.This analysis also considers JQUA, QUAL, and QLTY as alternatives.Dilok Klaisataporn Investment Thesis The Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (NYSEARCA:SPHQ) has an excellent track record. However, with two Index changes since its December 2005 inception and deceiving backtested results over the last 30 years, determining if SPHQ can outperform the broader market is challenging. In this article, I will bring clarity to SPHQ's track record and compare it fundamentally with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and three other quality-themed large-cap ETFs. While it's not my preference, I appreciate SPHQ's constituents' 22.30% free cash flow margins and the ETF's relatively low overlap with SPY. Therefore, I've assigned a \"buy\" rating to SPHQ, and I look forward to explaining why in further detail below. SPHQ Overview SPHQ tracks the S&P 500 Quality Index, selecting the top 20% of S&P 500 Index stocks with the highest quality scores. The Index evaluates quality with three fundamental measures, as follows:  ROE: Trailing 1Y EPS / Book Value Per Share (\"BVPS\") Accruals Ratio: 1Y Change In Operating Assets / 2Y Average Total Assets Financial Leverage: Total Debt / [BVPS x Common Shares Outstanding]  The Index rebalances and reconstitutes semi-annually on the third Friday of June and December. Constituents are weighted based on the product of their composite quality score and capitalization and are not subject to any weight constraints. However, the Index does apply a 20% buffer rule to limit turnover, meaning that current members remain so long as they rank inside the top 120 on the composite quality score. SPHQ has a 0.15% expense ratio, $8.69 billion in assets under management, and a 1.28% trailing dividend yield, similar to SPY's 1.29% dividend yield. Capital appreciation is the primary objective. Performance Analysis Index Changes and Backtested Data SPHQ launched on December 6, 2005. However, the current Index only launched on July 8, 2014. Until June 30, 2010, SPHQ tracked the Value Line Timeliness Select Index, which selects from a larger universe of about 1,700 stocks using \"10-year trends of relative earnings and prices, recent earnings and price changes, and earnings surprises.\" to rank most stocks traded on U.S. exchanges. Afterward, SPHQ tracked the S&P 500 High Quality Rankings Index until March 18, 2016, when it began tracking the current Index. As justification for a \"buy\" rating, another Seeking Alpha article recently argued that SPHQ's current Index had substantially outperformed the S&P 500 Index since January 1995. However, that's misleading since most data was backtested and came with the following disclosure from S&P Dow Jones Indices: All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is hypothetical back-tested, not actual performance, based on the index methodology in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance reflects application of an index methodology and selection of index constituents with the benefit of hindsight and knowledge of factors that may have positively affected its performance, cannot account for all financial risk that may affect results and may be considered to reflect survivor/look ahead bias. Actual returns may differ significantly from, and be lower than, back-tested returns. While backtesting was adequately noted in the article, backtested results are usually positive. For clarity, the analyst referred to calculations made since the December 16, 1994, \"First Value Date\" value of 100. The total return value is 4,228.01 as of March 22, 2024, a 13.65% annualized return. While technically accurate, these results are misleading. To illustrate, consider the following table of results from Wenli Bill Hao, Director, Factors and Dividend Indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices. The table is as of July 31, 2023. S&P Dow Jones Indices Notice the large difference in annualized returns between the \"20-Year\" and \"Since Inception\" figures for the S&P 500 Quality Index. Since there are 240 months in 20 years and 343 months between the Index launch date and this table's \"as of\" date, we can derive what the Quality Index's returns were for the 103 months between January 1995 and July 2003 with these equations:  Total Return Since Inception: (1+0.1338)^(343/12) - 1 = 3,521.04% 20-Year Total Return: (1+0.1150)^(240/12) - 1 = 782.06% Remaining Total Return: (1+35.2104) / (1+7.8206) - 1 = 310.52% Annualized Remaining Total Return: (1+3.1052)^(12/103) - 1 = 17.88%   As shown, the annualized back-tested returns for the S&P 500 Quality Index from January 1995 to July 2003 were a whopping 17.88%. In contrast, here are the calculations for the S&P 500 Index, which match the returns posted for SPY for that period after adjusting for fees.  Total Return Since Inception: (1+0.1046)^(343/12) - 1 = 1,617.69% 20-Year Return: (1+0.1012)^(240/12) - 1 = 587.58% Remaining Total Return: (1+16.1769) / (1+5.8758) - 1 = 149.82% Annualized Remaining Total Return: (1+1.4982)^(12/103) - 1 = 11.26%   These results beg the question of how much stock we should put in the S&P 500 Quality Index outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 6.62% per year (17.88% vs. 11.26% for 8.5 years during the late 1990s and early 2000s, a period which covered the dot com bubble and subsequent crash. Unlike then, today's largest companies are also the highest-quality ones. Because of this strong correlation between the two factors, we've seen little performance difference between the two Indices over the last decade. S&P Dow Jones Indices If unprofitable companies take over the S&P 500 Index, the S&P 500 Quality Index would provide investors with some protection. However, that's unlikely to happen in short order. The bottom line is that investing in the most prominent companies is the same as investing in the highest quality companies. That doesn't mean SPHQ is not appropriate, as there are some diversification benefits I want to discuss later. However, I disagree with rating SPHQ a buy using this data. Further due diligence is required. Performance vs. Other Quality-Themed ETFs To begin, we can see how SPHQ has performed against other large-cap ETFs focused on quality. I've compiled the returns of 25 other quality-themed funds over the last eight years, the approximate time SPHQ has tracked the S&P 500 Quality Index. I've also included SPY as a benchmark in the table below, and the results are as of February 29, 2024. The Sunday Investor As shown, SPHQ's 186.01% total return from March 2016 to February 2024 ranked #4/7 behind the SPY, the WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Fund (DGRW), and the iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (SPHQ). Value ETFs like QDF, QDEF, and OUSA substantially lagged. Over the last five years, SPHQ's 100.79% return ranked #3/17, tied with the JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF (JQUA) and 11% lower than the American Century U.S. Quality Growth ETF (QGRO). SPHQ also ranked #5/19 over the last three years and, along with JQUA, PSET, DGRW, QUAL, and QLC, outperformed SPY by 1-10%. These are all potential alternatives to SPHQ. However, JQUA and QUAL are worth evaluating, given their style and track record. At one reader's request, I will also assess the newly launched GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY). SPHQ Analysis Sector Exposures and Key Holdings The following table highlights sector exposure differences between SPHQ, JQUA, QUAL, QLTY, and SPY. Morningstar SPHQ has the most allocated to Technology at 35%. Relative to SPY, it underweights Consumer Discretionary and overweights Energy by 6-7%, a composition likely driven by SPHQ's reliance on backward-looking metrics. Consider that the average S&P 500 Energy stock has -1.12% expected one-year EPS growth, while all other sectors except Materials have a positive growth rate. As the Index reconstitutes semi-annually and inflation normalizes, I expect exposure to this sector to decrease. While SPHQ goes where quality \"was,\" QUAL applies a sector-neutral strategy, meaning its sector exposures will largely match its benchmark at each rebalancing. SPY is not QUAL's benchmark, but it's reasonably close, and this table highlights how exposure differences are within 1.5%. In this sense, it provides a more accurate measure of the quality factor by eliminating any sector bias. After all, it's easy to argue that market-cap-weighted Technology ETFs are also high-quality, but that wouldn't meet the needs of investors seeking a diversified portfolio. JQUA follows a proprietary strategy emphasizing profitability, earnings quality, and solvency/financial risk. It's well-diversified, and in previous reviews, I've found it has outperformed SPY through superior security selection rather than simply overweighting a top-performing sector like Technology. Finally, while I need to familiarize myself better with QLTY, it seems to take the opposite approach. With only 50 equal-weighted holdings, 60% allocated to only two sectors, and a 0.50% expense ratio, investors are betting on QLTY's active managers. So far, performance since December 2023 is underwhelming, but it's still early. Portfolio Visualizer While there is tremendous overlap between the largest U.S. stocks and the highest quality ones, SPHQ does provide a different \"look\" at these types of stocks. Below is a list of their top ten holdings, totaling 47.39% of the fund. While this concentration level is more significant than SPY's 33.71%, there is 7% less exposure to Magnificent Seven stocks. Invesco The way SPHQ accomplishes this is interesting. It has no exposure to Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), or Tesla (TSLA) but overweights Nvidia (NVDA) by almost 4%. One change at the subsequent reconstitution could be the addition of Amazon, as its trailing ROE has improved from -1.91% in March 2023 to 17.49% today. Amazon shares are up 81.23% over the last year, which was a missed opportunity. These are the types of things SPHQ shareholders must accept. When you select only 20% of an Index, sometimes it doesn't work out. If you are specifically looking to diversify away from the Magnificent Seven stocks, here is a quick summary highlighting how JQUA is your best bet. However, QLTY is the only quality-themed ETF with exposure to Amazon because it's actively managed, which could be advantageous. The Sunday Investor SPHQ Fundamental Analysis The following table highlights selected fundamental metrics for SPHQ's top 25 holdings, totaling 71.65% of the portfolio. Only QLTY is more concentrated, and since SPHQ has the same 22-23% exposure to Magnificent stocks as QUAL and QLTY, it might not be the best complement to SPY. However, SPHQ's total 38% overlap is pretty good, considering the figures for JQUA, QUAL, and QLTY are 44%, 40%, and 33%, respectively. The Sunday Investor Here are three additional observations to consider: 1. Using each fund's weighted average market cap figures as a guide, SPHQ is most similar to SPY in composition. JQUA is the outlier, holding 256 securities with market caps as low as $1.2 billion and the highest security weight of only 2.71%. JQUA's superior diversification should lead to more consistent returns over time, but it might give up the potential to substantially outperform SPY. 2. SPHQ trades at 26.18x forward earnings using a simple weighted average method or 21.71x using the harmonic weighted average method, which you'll find on sites like Morningstar. This valuation is the second-lowest in this sample, but it ranks #4 on trailing price-sales and trailing price-cash flow. In contrast, JQUA is the cheapest on these three metrics, indicating it's slightly more defensive. 3. SPHQ has a 9.85/10 profit score backed by 25.98% and 22.30% net and free cash flow margins, the best in the sample. Undoubtedly, it's one of the highest-quality ETFs available, but this level of quality may be unnecessary. Over the last eight years, SPHQ's total return ranked #55/141 among all large-cap ETFs. Several large-cap blend and value ETFs outperformed, including total market funds (ITOT, IWV, VTI, SCHB, SPTM) and value-oriented funds (RDVY, (DGRW), LEAD). Multi-factor funds (JHML, FNDX) were also competitive, and the one factor they have in common is a profit score above 9.00. Performance tends to worsen with ETFs below this score, which include equal-weight ETFs (EQL, RSP, EUSA) and momentum ETFs that don't emphasize quality (PDP, ONEO, SPVM). While I take comfort in knowing SPHQ will consistently score well on this factor, it might be a missed opportunity in market downturns because it doesn't consider other important factors like valuation. SPHQ declined by 15.77% in 2022, ranking #160/321 among the large-cap ETFs I track. If value stocks outperform growth stocks over the next decade, as projected by Vanguard analysts, SPHQ likely will underperform. Vanguard Investment Recommendation In this article, I took some time to evaluate the backtested performance of the S&P 500 Quality Index. This evaluation was necessary, as I determined that the Index's returns since inception were heavily influenced by results 20-30 years ago, a period which included the dot com bubble and subsequent crash. Backtested results often provide false comfort to investors who might not appreciate how different the stock market's composition is compared to the past. These days, the largest U.S. stocks are also high-quality, so consider the possibility that simple market-cap-weighted large-cap ETFs might do just as well as the Quality Index as they have in the last decade.  That said, my opinion of the ETF improved once I compared SPHQ with its peers. SPHQ is one of the highest-quality ETFs on the market, and while the emphasis on quality might be excessive, it's a winning strategy in the long run, as profitable companies are often the most resilient and tend to bounce back after market downturns. I still prefer JQUA for its better diversification and slightly lower valuation. However, given its relatively low overlap with SPY, SPHQ also works nicely as a complement. As a result, I've decided to rate it a \"buy,\" and I look forward to discussing it further in the comments section below. 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