ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 takes a breather + Two charts explain why we're in a bull market

LiveWire03-26

ASX 200 futures are trading 29 points lower, down -0.37% as of 8:30 am AEDT. Source: Market Index S&P 500 SESSION CHART S&P 500 lower in a relatively range bound session (Source: ...

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Syrah Resources reports full-year net loss of $85.3m vs. $63m consensus. Telix Pharma doses first patient in TLX250-CDx early access program. MMA Offshore top holder slams cheap and opportunistic $1bn takeover . S&P 500 lower in a relatively quiet and range bound session. Uneventful start to the week with some focus on overbought conditions, China headwind for select tech companies, potential headwinds from rebalancing dynamics, corporate buyback blackout period and seasonally weak equity inflow period. WTI crude settled 1.5% higher on heightened geopolitical risk and Russia production cuts output to meet OPEC+ targets . Outperformance of Magnificent 7 stocks has stalled, adding to risk of a pullback . Bond markets restart global rate cutting trades and lean towards cuts commencin","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BEN":"富兰克林资源","REH.AU":"REECE LTD","MGL.AU":"MAGONTEC LTD","SIG.AU":"SIGMA HEALTHCARE LTD","AFR.AU":"African Energy Resources Ltd","MXI.AU":"MaxiParts Limited","EVO":"Evotec SE","BSL":"BLACKSTONE SENIOR FLOATING RATE 2027 TERM FUND","BSL.AU":"BLUESCOPE STEEL LTD","GDF.AU":"Garda Diversified Property Fund","IPG.AU":"IPD GROUP LTD","ARF.AU":"ARENA REIT","SXE.AU":"SOUTHERN CROSS ELECTRICAL","ACL.AU":"Australian Clinical Labs Ltd","MIN.AU":"MINERAL RESOURCES LTD","EVO.AU":"EMBARK EARLY EDUCATION LTD","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","FLT.AU":"FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP L","MXI":"iShares S&P Global Materials Sec","DCC.AU":"DIGITAL X LTD","SIG":"西格内特珠宝","BEN.AU":"BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK","MIN":"MFS Intermediate Income Trust","CVL.AU":"CIVMEC LTD/CDI","MEZ.AU":"MERIDIAN ENERGY 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200指数下跌，标普500喘口气+两张图表解释我们为什么处于牛市","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"REH.AU":1,"IPG":1,"IPG.AU":1,"MEZ.AU":1,"MGL.AU":1,"MIN":1,"MIN.AU":1,"MXI":1,"MXI.AU":1,"MYR.AU":1,"NCK.AU":1,"NZO.AU":1,"ACL.AU":1,"RFF.AU":1,"RPL.AU":1,"SIG":1,"SIG.AU":1,"SPY":1,"SXE.AU":1,"TCF":1,"TCF.AU":1,"TOT.AU":1,"WPR.AU":1,"WWG.AU":1,"GDF.AU":1,".SPX":1,"AFR.AU":1,"ALU.AU":1,"ARF.AU":1,"BEN":1,"BEN.AU":1,"BSL":1,"BSL.AU":1,"CIP.AU":1,"COF":1,"COF.AU":1,"CVL.AU":1,"DCC.AU":1,"DSK.AU":1,"DXC":1,"DXC.AU":1,"EVO":1,"EVO.AU":1,"FLT":1,"FLT.AU":1,"FT":1,"HVN.AU":1,"XAO.AU":0.74,"XJO.AU":0.74,"XKO.AU":0.74},"content_text":"ASX 200 futures are trading 29 points lower, down -0.37% as of 8:30 am AEDT.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Market Index\nS&P 500 SESSION CHART\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nS&P 500 lower in a relatively range bound session (Source: TradingView)\n\nASX TODAY\n\n\n29Metals suspends operations at Capricorn following extended period of rainfall\n\n\nSyrah Resources reports full-year net loss of $85.3m vs. $63m consensus\n\nTelix Pharma doses first patient in TLX250-CDx early access program \n\nFletcher Building shareholders push for next chair to be an external New Zealand-based candidate (The Australian)\n\nMMA Offshore top holder slams cheap and opportunistic $1bn takeover (AFR)\n\nPerpetual suitors including Permira and KKR are not giving up (AFR)\n\nMARKETS\n\n\nS&P 500 lower in a relatively quiet and range bound session\n\nUneventful start to the week with some focus on overbought conditions, China headwind for select tech companies, potential headwinds from rebalancing dynamics, corporate buyback blackout period and seasonally weak equity inflow period\n\nGoldman Sachs says month-and-quarter end rebalancing could drive up to US$35bn worth of equity selling\n\nDeutsche Bank says the first quarter typically account for the bulk of a year’s inflows, they then dwindle, even turning negative from April through to August \n\nWTI crude settled 1.5% higher on heightened geopolitical risk and Russia production cuts output to meet OPEC+ targets (Reuters)\n\nOutperformance of Magnificent 7 stocks has stalled, adding to risk of a pullback (Bloomberg)\n\nBond markets restart global rate cutting trades and lean towards cuts commencing in June (Bloomberg)\n\nJapan stock volatility set to rise with end of BOJ purchases (Nikkei)\n\nGoldman Sachs says gold rally set to continue through the end of 2024 (Yahoo Finance)\n\nCocoa surpasses US$9,000 a ton for the first time amid supply shortage (Bloomberg)\n\nINTERNATIONAL STOCKS\n\n\nApple iPhone no longer holds the appeal it used to for many in China (NY Times)\n\nBoeing CEO Dave Calhoun to step down at year end (FT)\n\nEricsson cuts 1,200 employees in Sweden amid sluggish 5G spending (Reuters)\n\nNovo Nordisk to acquire Cardior Pharmaceuticals for 1bn euros, maker of heart disease RNA therapies (FT)\n\nFisker shares halted after potential deal with large automaker collapses (Reuters)\n\nTrump Media will begin trading Tuesday under ticker DJT (CNBC)\n\nCENTRAL BANKS\n\n\nPowell's ready to support the job market, even if it means lingering inflation (Bloomberg)\n\nChicago Fed President Goolsbee says he still sees three rate cuts this year (Reuters)\n\nFed Governor Cook highlighted risks of easing monetary policy too soon (Reuters)\n\nAtlanta Fed President Bostic reiterates expectation for one rate cut this year (Bloomberg)\n\nGEOPOLITICS\n\n\nUK defence minister says Russia's Black Sea fleet functionally inactive (Newsweek)\n\nUN Security Council passes Israel and Hamas ceasefire resolution (FT)\n\nIsrael cancels senior delegation's Washington visit after UN Security Council passes ceasefire resolution (Washington Post)\n\nFrench and American intelligence both point to ISIS as perpetrators of Moscow attack (USA Today)\n\nRussia casts doubt on ISIS claims for Moscow attack (Reuters)\n\nENERGY\n\n\nUS awards record US$6bn to back industrial emissions reduction projects (Bloomberg)\n\nRussia orders oil producers to reduce output in Q2 to meet its OPEC+ target (Reuters)\n\nMorgan Stanley upgrades energy sector, citing higher crude prices and compelling valuation (CNBC)\n\nAnalysts see US oil production at record 14m bpd by year and amid falling costs and improving drilling efficiency (Bloomberg)\n\nTraders buying oil contracts at fastest pace since Dec-19 (Reuters)\n\nECONOMY\n\n\nUS new home sales fall, median prices lowest in more than two-and-a-half years (Reuters) \n\nChina Premier Li downplays investor concerns over economic risks (Bloomberg)\n\nChina may be releasing economic data early to counter economic gloom (Bloomberg) \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nUS-listed ETFs (Source: TradingView)\nSectors to Watch\nNot the most exciting overnight session (after S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped off best weekly gains of the year last week). A few sectors to note include:\n\n\nCrypto: Bitcoin rallied 4.3% overnight to US$70,090. I'm keen to see how DigitalX (ASX: DCC) trades. It's a $50m market cap digital asset manager and also holds 114.9 Bitcoin and 129 Ethereum. The company recently (18 March) completed a private placement for $5.3 million at 6.7 cents per share or a 19.2% discount to pre-raise prices.\n\nUranium, biotech, copper and homebuilders: Not the most volatile session but several overnight ETFs like the Global X Uranium ETF, SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, Global X Copper Miners ETF and SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF finished lower and at worst levels.\n\nEnergy: Oil prices pushed higher overnight on concerns over tighter global supply amid escalating geopolitical tensions, recent attacks on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine as well as receding ceasefire hopes in the Middle East. Energy was the best performing S&P 500 sector and within an arms reach of fresh all-time highs. Interestingly, the S&P energy sector is up 18.5% in the past twelve months while the local energy sector is up just 3.9%.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSPDR Select Sector Fund (top) and S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (bottom) | Source: TradingView\nA Secular Bull Market\nThe S&P 500 is on a five month winning streak, up 24.4% since last October. Historical data suggests this is a bullish set up for both April and the rest of the year.\nThe S&P 500 has logged a positive November, December, January, February and March on 11 occasions since 1950. The below data suggests:\n\nApril tends to be positive 82% of the time\nQ2-3 performance may be a little choppy\nQ4 tends to see some massive rallies and positive 90% of the time\nPerformance for the full-year and next twelve months is also very strong\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: AlmanacTrader\n\nThe S&P 500 has also managed to trade without a 2% correction for 100 trading sessions. On previous occasions, the S&P 500 is up 100% of the time (over the next six months), with a median return of 6.8%, according to SentimenTrader.\n\nKEY EVENTS\nCompanies trading ex-dividend: \n\n\nTuesday, 26 March: Civmec (CVL) – $0.025, New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZO) – $0.025, Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.10, Southern Cross Electrical (SXE) – $0.01 \n\nWednesday, 27 March: Myer (MYR) – $0.03, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.04, IPD Group (IPG) – $0.04, Garda Property (GDF) – $0.016, Rural Funds (RFF) – $0.02, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.05, Reece (REH) – $0.08, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.002, 360 Capital REIT (TOT) – $0.015, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.035, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.03, Centuria Retail REIT (CIP) – $0.04, Australian Unity Office Fund (ARF) – $0.015, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.04 \n\nThursday, 28 March: Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.03, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.033\n\nFriday, 29 March: None\n\nMonday, 2 April: Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.05, Magontec (MGL) – $0.006, Harvey Norman (HVN) – $0.10 \n\nOther ASX corporate actions today: \n\n\nDividends paid: Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.35, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.02, Bendigo Bank (BEN) – $0.30, Embark Education (EVO) – $0.015, Altium (ALU) – $0.30, BlueScope Steel (BSL) – $0.25, Mineral Resources (MIN) – $0.20, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.05, Dusk Group (DSK) – $0.025 \n\nListing: None\n\nEconomic calendar (AEDT):\n\n\n10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar)\n\n6:00 pm: Germany Consumer Confidence (Apr)\n\n11:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders (Feb)\n\nThis Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun. \n\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2422577624"}