INSTANT VIEW 1-March US payrolls beat expectations; wages increase steadily

Reuters04-05

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April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. employers hired far more workers than expected March while raising wages, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground and potentially delaying anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Data for February was revised slightly lower to show 270,000 jobs added instead of 275,000 as previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 150,000 to 250,000.

MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: S&P 500 e-mini futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street BONDS: The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield rose 8.9 basis points to 4.398%; Two-year yields rose 7.2 basis points to 4.7127% FOREX: The dollar index gained 0.3% higher at 104.52

COMMENTS:

BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN

"The labor market is the gift that keeps on giving jobs, but it's coal for the bond markets. The fears in the markets shouldn’t be about stagflation. The fears are shifting to one of overheating. However, the job gains are in the most economically insensitive areas, like healthcare, so those fears are overblown."

"Good job gains where wage gains are modest isn’t inflationary. The Fed doesn’t think it has to kill the economy to tame inflation. This does push out the date when cuts will make sense, but it doesn’t mean the Fed needs to reverse course and start hiking again."

PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK

"This is a hot number again and unemployment ticked lower."

"The real nitty gritty is what happens to hourly wages, which were basically in line with expectations, just slightly over 4%, on a year-to-year basis."

"That means that while the fear of a further increase in overall inflation may diminish somewhat, nevertheless it's a strong number."

"This means June rate cut is now looking less likely, and the dilemma for the Fed continues."

DAVID WADDELL, CEO AND CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, WADDELL & ASSOCIATES, NASHVILLE

"The headlines are going to talk about unemployment rate being 3.8%, which is a beat but the meaningful data point with the report is average hourly earnings, which have now fallen down to 4.1% year over year, which is the lowest level since June of 2021."

"So the employment report was hot, but it was a cooling inflation report and that's why the market can digest it .. this doesn't really change anything."

PAUL NOLTE, SENIOR WEALTH ADVISOR & MARKET STRATEGIST, MURPHY & SYLVEST WEALTH MANAGEMENT, ELMHURST, ILLINOIS "Everything in the numbers look good. Participation rate was up, hours worked were up. The reason the unemployment rate came down was because of more people coming into the labor force." "With this number and the prior numbers we've seen, it still indicate that the labor market is strong." "The revisions are the only thing that I'm looking for. We'll find out a little bit more from some of the Fed governors that talk today." "We been in the camp that the Fed doesn't cut rates at all because the economy is strong so this still fits within our framework of good employment data that should keep the Fed on the sidelines."

BRAD BECHTEL, GLOBAL HEAD OF FX, JEFFERIES, NEW YORK "It definitely pushes out rate cut expectations. You can see the market is already pricing after September now. That should continue to underpin dollar strength on a broad basis." "I don't know that it'll shake up the carry crowd and the carry narrative, so the high yield versus low yield theme that's been prevalent throughout FX this year. I think that's going to continue to be a popular trade at least through the summer, but the dollar will likely also remain supported just given this shift in rate cut expectations."

(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)

((saqib.ahmed@thomsonreuters.com; @SaqibReports; +1 332 219 1971; Reuters Messaging: saqib.ahmed.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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