Upcoming Catalysts Position Perrigo For Sustained Long-Term Dividend Growth

seekingalpha04-09

After nearly a decade of struggles, Perrigo is poised to turn the corner under the leadership of a new CEO who is only nine months in the seat.Infant formula woes will be resolved in Q2 and ...

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Dividend Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-09 17:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682833-upcoming-catalysts-position-perrigo-for-sustained-long-term-dividend-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After nearly a decade of struggles, Perrigo is poised to turn the corner under the leadership of a new CEO who is only nine months in the seat.Infant formula woes will be resolved in Q2 and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4682833-upcoming-catalysts-position-perrigo-for-sustained-long-term-dividend-growth\">Source 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the investor day in the fall could be a catalyst for the shares.Opill, the first OTC birth control pill in the USA, could be a surprise revenue generator and is an example of new innovation and branding strategy for Perrigo.Strategy for improving gross margins on USA store brand business is practical and can drive profit with only modest cash investment.Perrigo Has Opportunity to Leverage its Assets for More Profitable Future Paper Boat Creative/DigitalVision via Getty Images Perrigo (NYSE:PRGO) has increased dividends for 20 consecutive years, and I believe the initiatives outlined by the new CEO will propel Perrigo to Dividend Champion status and beyond. There are five potential catalysts forthcoming in 2024 that could support a share price increase. When combined with a depressed share price that is a result of a tumultuous decade, the shares seem to have found support and offer an attractive dividend yield and prospects for dividend growth. Company Overview Perrigo is a leading provider of over-the-counter medications and therapeutic products, primarily in the USA, Canada, Europe and Australia. According to the company in its latest 10-K, it is the \"leading store brand private label provider of self-care products in many categories including upper respiratory, nutrition and women's health\" at 49% market share according to an internal study cited in the 2023 Investor Day presentation. Healthcare is a long-term growth sector as populations age globally and the inherent human desire to live longer and more vibrant lives. An aging and growing world demands self-care products. (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day) Despite these supportive demographics and industry, Perrigo really struggled after a proposed acquisition by Mylan which was subsequently merged with Upjohn, Pfizer's off-patent medicine division in November 2020, to become a new company called Viatris (VTRS). The immediate prior CEO at Perrigo summarized the past 15 years in this slide at the 2023 Investor Day. Refocused Perrigo is ready for profitable growth again (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day) There is some good analysis on PRGO on Seeking Alpha and elsewhere that covers the history, so I'm not going to spend further time on it here. Our task is to evaluate where the company is today and what are the prospects looking forward, especially now that there is a new CEO in place since July 2023. I've identified five catalysts below and will dive into each one. Five Catalysts for PRGO Shares Infant Formula Woes Nearing Resolution In March and April of 2023, the FDA inspected one of Perrigo's infant formula factories in Wisconsin. The FDA found gaps in the process control systems designed to prevent microorganisms from adulterating the finished product. As a result, Perrigo had to shut down the line and implement corrective actions. The Wisconsin plant is one of three plants the company owns; the other two are in Vermont and Ohio. The FDA news was not made publicly available until August 30th, at which time the share price declined about 25% from $36.15 to around $27. FDA news on infant formula depressed PRGO shares during 2023 (Seeking Alpha) Fast-forward to this March 13th, on a webcast with UBS at the Global Consumer and Retail Conference, where the company reported that the Wisconsin plant is now back online and had been running smoothly for 4 weeks at the time. Notably, revenue and income from the plant had not yet been factored into earnings forecasts. In addition, the Vermont plant assessment and corrections were almost done at this time and the Ohio assessment was underway. Management indicated that in 2023 the company scrapped approximately $50 million of product due to the FDA findings, and that the normalized operating income run rate for infant formula is on the order of $140 million, whereas 2023 was only about $70 million. The resumption of all three plants will be additive to earnings in the back half of 2024 and 2025 should approach the normalized run rate. Manufacturing and Supply Chain Optimization The aforementioned webcast is a good listen. CEO Patrick Lockwood-Taylor rattles off some data points that speak to the manufacturing and supply chain scale that Perrigo has at its disposal; a product in ⅔ of USA households, about half of all aspirin is made by them, and they produce 65 billion units across all products each year. More importantly, I love that he succinctly articulated that the big picture challenge and opportunity for Perrigo is to figure out \"How do we use those assets to create more value?\" This tells me he sees that they need to use and improve what they have before investing in new things; a strategy that should require less cash while also increasing profitability on existing assets. His predecessor laid a good foundation on this front, which was detailed in the 2023 Investor Day presentation. The company is working to unlock $150 - $200 million in adjusted operating income by the end of 2025 through four initiatives: reducing portfolio complexity, improved business planning and reducing forecast error, sourcing optimization, and manufacturing optimization. Efficiency initiatives should drive operating income and earnings per share (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day Presentation) Management gave some specific examples of the action items within these initiatives, like these two:   Portfolio Complexity:  North American plants are 85% utilized, but SKU complexity results in only 40% productivity. Every 10 ppts of productivity unlocks 25% capacity vs. current baseline. They plan to reduce 1,000 SKUs. Internationally, 1,500+ SKUs contribute only 1% of profit.    Better Planning: $60 million/year of materials are thrown away, and 50% of that is addressable through planning. Reducing this waste also unlocks working capital by reducing days of inventory on the balance sheet.   Actions like these are not sexy, but they drop cash to the bottom line and I like that management is looking internally before getting too exuberant on new products, mergers & acquisitions, marketing and advertising, or making a big shift in direction on strategy. Looking out to 2028, management believes that there is an additional $100 million in savings, for a total of up to $300 million. Perrigo 2023 Investor Day Once management has addressed these issues, the CEO said that his team can then turn their \"attention to how do we accelerate growth more profitably.\" And, when expanding on that pivot point, he says that they will be asking \"What is that portfolio for the long term that offers more opportunity for growth, that we can execute at scale [in] more parts of the world, [in] consumer innovation, manufacturing, and marketing plans?\". This is a CEO who is making his team do the basic blocking and tackling first and making sure that the foundation is solid before embarking on grand adventures. Good-Better-Best Branding and Pricing Strategy The next catalyst for the shares will be improving gross margins. Adjusted gross margin dropped from 40.3% in 2019 to 36.5% in 2021, but starting in 2022 things are improving and management is committed to achieving 40%+ long-term. I'm using GAAP gross margin percentages in the table below, so the figures are not perfectly comparable, but you can see the progress almost every quarter through the most recent Q4 of 2023. The gains are due to the manufacturing and supply chain initiatives described above, and also another initiative on improved pricing. Improving gross margin percentages advancing towards 40% (Seeking Alpha) On the UBS webcast, management explained that in the United Kingdom, Perrigo often has a product at two or more price points, and they used the \"good - better - best\" analogy where \"best\" refers to a branded product backed heavily by advertising to support a higher price and greater awareness and trial. The \"good\" tier represents store brands, which are also sometimes called \"private label\". By process of elimination, \"better\" refers to a brand that falls somewhere between the two. Apparently, in the USA OTC market, Perrigo today only offers store brands/private label medications. Management is just now starting to plan for bringing the \"better\" price tier and brand strategy from the UK over to the USA. This could have a significant impact on gross margins; management stated that it could be 10–12 points higher and that this mid-tier segment of the market can grow at 5%-8% CAGR. Furthermore, they believe that offering product at every price point is very important to the retailers that are Perrigo's customers, and the OTC market is behind other consumer product goods \"CPG\" categories in this respect. I like this strategy because, to paraphrase the CEO, offering a \"better\" product brand/tier is \"the same molecule, same people, same machinery and same asset base\" and hence is highly accretive to the bottom line, after accounting for modestly higher advertising and marketing costs. Upside From the Launch of Opill A third catalyst for PRGO shares could be the first readout on the performance of their just launched OTC oral birth control product named Opill. This new market is quite sizeable at $3.7 billion, and Opill is the first prescription contraceptive to \"switch over\" to OTC. First to market in a new product category (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day) Opill just entered distribution this month and management said that \"retail support is very strong\" with high levels of distribution secured for launch. On the UBS webcast, management stated that the launch will be dilutive to operating income during 2024 because of the startup costs but that in year two and beyond this product will achieve higher gross margin percentages than the overall company. In addition, the statement was made during the webcast that if health insurance companies decide to cover it in their plans, it would be a significant positive for adoption and revenue. Well, shortly after that webcast, news broke that CVS will have its drug plans cover Opill and other OTC contraceptives. Opill is the first product in the category and brand can be extended (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day) Perrigo reports earnings on May 10th, and I expect that they will give some early indication of how Opill is performing. While it may take a couple of quarters with positive news, I think it could help support an increasing share price over the next 6–12 months. Upcoming Investor Day The last catalyst for the shares could be this fall, when Perrigo plans to host an investor day. On the UBS webcast, the CEO shared that a major theme of the Day will be shedding light on how management will be aiming to increase total shareholder returns over the long term. In particular, he reiterated four focus areas that his predecessor had previewed in the 2023 Investor Day:  Growing the Dividend Deleverage to <3.0X adjusted EBITDA by end of 2025 Reinvest in the Business (looking at product categories which offer higher margins) Opportunistic M&A (and divestitures)  Perrigo is steadily decreasing its debt (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day) I think that a good showing at the Investor Day where management articulates specific action items that will drive revenue and earnings would be well received by the market. A couple of examples that the CEO shared on the webcast were:  A few divestitures of non-core assets will be complete by the end of the first half of 2024, thus unlocking cash for debt paydown or shareholder returns. Higher hurdle for advertising spend compared to other CPG companies and how Perrigo will invest more upfront on testing before buying lots of media.  Conclusion There are only six companies in the pharmaceutical sector whose dividends are ranked as \"A\" for Consistency in the Seeking Alpha Quant Rating system, and Perrigo is one of them. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) dividend yields are currently underwhelming and also below their 4-year average yield. Novo's dividend safety is a red flag right now according to the Seeking Alpha Quant Rating score, and Pfizer's (PFE) safety and growth ratings are also mediocre. That leaves Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and Merck & Co. (MRK) which have both paid a dividend for 34 years, but like LLY, NVO and PFE, BMY and MRK are primarily in the prescription drug development business, which entails significant product cycle risk and capital intensity due to the failure rate of new drug discovery and lengthy FDA approval processes. Surprisingly, Perrigo has increased its dividend for more years than either BMY (7 years) or MRK (13 years). I think these facts speak to the steady but slow growth of the OTC medication category. Perrigo scores well on Seeking Alpha dividend quant ratings (Seeking Alpha Quant Ratings - Dividends) My goal is to find companies that can become the next Dividend Aristocrat or Champion, and I think Perrigo is likely to accomplish that and deliver compounding dividend growth for years to come. A forecasted 3% revenue growth rate target is fair given an underlying industry growth rate of 4%, and when combined with the efficiency and pricing initiatives, should support dividend growth in the mid-single digits. Perrigo's target industry of \"Self-care\" is projected to grow at a 4% CAGR (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day) I think the shares have finally found their support level after 10 years of deterioration, and at today's levels the 3.5% dividend yield can deliver an attractive income stream. Using the Yield on Original Investment calculator from Miller Howard Investments and comparing PRGO to the Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF (VONV), we see that in 15 years Perrigo could be yielding 12.47% on original cost assuming a modest 6% dividend growth rate versus 8.19% yield on original investment for VONV even with its higher 8.6% dividend growth rate because of the lower starting yield of just 2%. Beyond the dividend income, there is ample potential for gains in the share price when you consider the potential catalysts identified above and which leads me to rate the shares a buy for long-term dividend growth investors. Risks and Flags There are at least three issues to keep an eye on with this company. First, the international segment, which has grown revenues by 17% over the past two years, had negative operating income each of those years and I have not heard enough from management on how they will improve the performance. Hopefully, there will be more attention paid to it at the 2024 Investor Day. CSCI is the International Division (Perrigo 2023 10-K) Second, competition in the \"Self-Care\" industry looks set to become more intense, as there are now several global companies focused on the space. Here is a slide from the Perrigo 2023 Investor Day that highlights the changes. On the positive side, it is possible that more publicly traded companies focused on the sector could attract more Wall Street analyst coverage, and if Perrigo performs well that could be a positive for the shares. More analyst coverage could attract investors to Perrigo (Perrigo 2023 Investor Day) Lastly, a note on foreign withholding taxes. Perrigo is incorporated in Ireland. While the shares trade on the NYSE, the dividends may be subject to the foreign withholding tax and your broker may automatically deduct 25% of the dividends from your account. I am not a tax professional and do not offer tax planning advice. Consult your tax advisor as to whether you may be able to claim a credit for these foreign taxes or how the dividends would be taxed if held in a non-taxable account like a 401K or IRA.  That said, even if we assume that the current 3.5% dividend yield is taxed at 25%, the net yield of 2.62% is still attractive compared to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 1.3%, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) at 1.09% or even VONV at 1.98%.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2426160966"}