The Cannabis REIT Conundrum

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There are three considerations for investments: Financial, personal, and moral.Cannabis REITs initially experienced price gains but have since seen a decline in favor due to inflation and economic ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Cannabis REIT Conundrum\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-12 19:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4683324-the-cannabis-reit-conundrum><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There are three considerations for investments: Financial, personal, and moral.Cannabis REITs initially experienced price gains but have since seen a decline in favor due to inflation and economic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4683324-the-cannabis-reit-conundrum\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AFCG","symbol_name":"AFC Gamma, Inc.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4683324-the-cannabis-reit-conundrum","article_id":"2426200956","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1403074050/image_1403074050.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2426200956","pubTimestamp":1712919600,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"There are three considerations for investments: Financial, personal, and moral.Cannabis REITs initially experienced price gains but have since seen a decline in favor due to inflation and economic challenges.Four specific cannabis REITs worth investigating: NewLake Capital Partners, Innovative Industrial Properties, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, and AFC Gamma.   Morsa ImagesEvery investment we make comes with three considerations:  A financial one, which measures how likely it will pay off in and of itself. A personal one, which measures how well it’s suited for our individual needs. A moral one, which measures how much good or harm it will do along the way.   Normally, I focus on the first. It’s my job as an analyst to offer broad insights into investment opportunities. From there, it’s up to you to decide whether it’s right for you from a personal and moral standpoint. Now, before I go any further into this, let me assure you that I don’t search for immoral investments. Why b","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AFCG":"AFC Gamma, Inc.","REIT.AU":"VANECK FTSE INTERNATIONAL PR","IIPR":"Innovative Industrial Properties Inc","BK4588":"碎股","BK4224":"工业房地产信托","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","CFA.SI":"NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT","REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.","BK4171":"工业房地产投资信托","BK4110":"抵押房地产投资信托","REIT":"ALPS Active REIT ETF","FAST":"快扣","NLCP":"NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.","BK4104":"贸易公司与经销商","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"translate_title":"大麻房地产投资信托基金难题","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AFCG":1,"CFA.SI":1,"IIPR":1,"NLCP":1,"REFI":1,"REIT":1,"REIT.AU":1,"FAST":0.9},"content_text":"There are three considerations for investments: Financial, personal, and moral.Cannabis REITs initially experienced price gains but have since seen a decline in favor due to inflation and economic challenges.Four specific cannabis REITs worth investigating: NewLake Capital Partners, Innovative Industrial Properties, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, and AFC Gamma.   Morsa ImagesEvery investment we make comes with three considerations:  A financial one, which measures how likely it will pay off in and of itself. A personal one, which measures how well it’s suited for our individual needs. A moral one, which measures how much good or harm it will do along the way.   Normally, I focus on the first. It’s my job as an analyst to offer broad insights into investment opportunities. From there, it’s up to you to decide whether it’s right for you from a personal and moral standpoint. Now, before I go any further into this, let me assure you that I don’t search for immoral investments. Why bother when there are so many stellar companies to choose from? I also have no desire to promote bad behavior or bad results on any level. Though I do think it’s important to acknowledge that “bad behavior” and “bad results” can be a bit subjective at times. Like cannabis real estate investment trusts. I know some people have no problem with them. Just like I know that others do. For me, these REITs operate in a gray moral area. Which is why I’m OK writing about them from a financial one. I’ve promoted them before as having serious stock market potential. And I’ve cautioned against them at other times due to their valuations and/or sector specifics. Today though, it seems high time (no pun intended) to evaluate the sector again – and four specific cannabis REITs within it. Cannabis REIT Prices Used to Grow Like a Weed Looking back at the history of cannabis REITs, we find Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) as the trailblazer. Its website shares how it’s: “… the pioneering real estate investment trust for the regulated cannabis industry. Founded in December 2016, we are the first publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange… to provide real estate capital to the regulated cannabis industry.” It went on to make investors money hand over foot for several years. Here’s a chart of its share price through its November 2021 high: Yahoo FinanceI tend to caution against buying into initial public offerings (IPOs), especially when dealing with brand-new concepts. And I almost never regret that decision to stay out of unproven stocks. Innovative Industrial Properties is an exception though. Looking at that chart, you might be sighing a bit too. In which case, I don’t mean to drive the knife in by quoting my thoughts from May 2021: “This brings me to Dane Bowler and Beyond Saving, two pioneers in covering Innovative Industrial Properties… They were writing about the cannabis-focused (REIT) on Seeking Alpha just as it listed.” Specifically, Bowler wrote in 2017 that: “… IIPR is a value REIT with massive growth potential. Its market price is held down by multiple factors that are not fundamental in nature, leaving long-term investors with a favorable reward-to-risk ratio.” And as I added:  “At the time, Bowler said he was long IIPR, though it’s unclear if he owns shares today. He deserves credit for making a gutsy call regardless – which has resulted in an astonishing 35% yield on cost (assuming he has owned IIPR since 2017). “If he does (still own IIPR), his total return is a whopping 932%, or 84% annualized.”  More than enough to make me “wish I’d gotten early in too.” Where Cannabis REIT Prices Went After 2021 Was an Obvious Downer Now, I have to go back to the beginning of the last segment. Remember how I said IIPR... \"went on to make investors money hand over foot for several years?\" First off, it wasn’t alone in that in 2021. While IIPR reigned supreme – and solitary – through the turn of the decade, other companies “cropped up” in response to its success. And they all saw price gains for months on end. Until the music stopped. Here’s IIPR’s full chart, which does a good job illustrating how every other cannabis REIT performed around that time: Yahoo FinanceClearly, the stock – and the sector – has fallen out of favor. This is in part due to inflation and the Fed’s response to it. To quote a recent Investopedia article,  “The cannabis sphere faces both industry-specific and broader economic challenges. Looking at the industry in particular, increasing competition from non-cannabis companies entering into the space is a major concern, as is the shifting landscape among start-up cannabis firms that are jockeying for market share. The complex legal landscape also makes doing business difficult for cannabis companies. “More broadly, rampant inflation in recent months has increased many costs for cannabis companies, and interest rate hikes may have made it more difficult for those companies to secure capital. Fears of a recession could decrease consumer spending on perceived non-essential items, potentially including cannabis products.”  All the same, I think it’s worth investigating four specific cannabis REITs at this time. After all, they still have a lot of folks recommending them. And their current price points certainly look attractive at first glance. Which is why I want to take a look to see what else we can see. NewLake Capital Partners (OTCQX:NLCP) NLCP is an internally managed cannabis REIT that specializes in the acquisition and management of industrial and retail properties that are used by state-licensed operators for the cultivation and distribution of cannabis. The company has a market cap of approximately $366.6 million and a 1.6 million SF portfolio that is made up of 31 properties (17 dispensaries / 14 cultivation facilities) that are leased by 13 tenants and located in 12 states. Based on invested capital, 90.8% NLCP’s portfolio is comprised of cultivation facilities while 9.2% is comprised of dispensaries. The cannabis REIT targets markets with high-barriers-to-entry, favorable regulatory frameworks, and strong demand for cannabis products. Some of its tenants include leading cannabis brands including Curaleaf, Cresco Labs, Acreage, and Trulieve. The company’s largest tenant is Curaleaf which makes up almost 24% of NLCP’s rent, followed by Cresco and Trulieve, which make up 13.9% and 11.5% respectively. NLCP acquires properties through sale-leaseback (“SLB”) transactions, build-to-suit, and third-party purchases. The company structures its leases on a long-term, triple-net basis, which eliminates a portion of the operating risk and provides for stable and predictable cash flows as the tenant is responsible for property taxes, insurance, and property maintenance. The company’s entire portfolio is subject to triple-net leases that typically last between 15 and 20 years and have built-in annual escalations. To mitigate risk, the company will typically require parent company guarantees, security deposits, and cross-collateralization. Plus, all of NLCP’s leases require quarterly facility level reporting. At the end of 2023, the company’s portfolio was 100% leased and had a weighted average lease term (“WALT”) of 14.3 years. NLCP - IRNewLake was formed in 2019 and went public in mid 2021. Since its inception, the company has grown rapidly and has established itself as one of the leading publicly-traded cannabis REITs in the market. In 2023 the company grew its adjusted funds from operations (“AFFO”) by 7% and analysts expect AFFO per share to grow by 3% in 2024, and then by 5% and 6% in the years 2025 and 2026, respectively. In 2022 the company increased its dividend from $1.44 to $1.57 per share, representing a 9.03% increase. At the end of 2023 the company dividend was well covered with an AFFO payout ratio of 83.07%. FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)Since 2022 NewLake has had an average AFFO growth rate of 12.37%, however, this number is skewed by the 48%-plus growth rate in 2022. A reasonable expectation going forward would be between 4-6% AFFO growth annually. NLCP benefits from strong demand and limited supply of cannabis properties, along with the favorable regulatory and demographic trends that support the expansion of legalized cannabis. However, it also faces significant challenges related to the legal and regulatory environment as cannabis is subject to a variety of legal and political uncertainties across different states and the federal government. The stock pays a 9.17% dividend yield and trades at a P/AFFO of 9.39x, compared to its average AFFO multiple of 13.81x. We rate NewLake Capital Partners a Spec Buy. FAST GraphsInnovative Industrial Properties As mentioned above, IIPR is a trailblazer in the cannabis sector as the first publicly-traded REIT on the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) with a specialized focus on the cannabis industry. The company was founded in December 2016 in order to fill a need in an underserved market that was created in part by the disconnect between federal and state law. Because cannabis is still illegal under federal law, many of the traditional financing channels are not available to cannabis operators. In late 2016 IIPR stepped in to provide capital to cannabis operators through sale-leasebacks and third party purchases. The REIT acquires mission critical properties that require specialized buildouts in order to optimize the environment for growing cannabis. Indoor growing facilities typically have a shell similar to that of a light industrial building, but they require an optimized environment in order to maximize yields and maintain control over cannabinoid levels. Some examples are enhanced HVAC systems, specialized lighting, and high levels of electrical and plumbing capacity. IIPR serves as a source of capital for state licensed cannabis operators primarily through sale-leaseback transactions. Concurrent with the acquisition, the property is leased back to the operator on a long-term, triple-net basis. IIPR - IRThe company has shown rapid growth since 2018 with its property count increasing from 11 to 108, its tenants increasing from 8 to 30, and the states it operates in increasing from nine to 19 at the end of 2023. IIPR has a market cap of approximately $2.8 billion and a 8.2 million SF operating portfolio made up of 103 properties located across 19 states with a WALT (weighted average lease term) of 14.6 years. As a percentage of annualized base rent (“ABR”), 92% of the company’s portfolio is made up of industrial properties, 2% is made up of retail properties, and 6% of its portfolio is made up of mixed properties. At the end of 2023 the company’s operating portfolio was 95.8% leased. IIPR - IRIIPR’s tenants include some of the largest and most well-known cannabis operators such as Curaleaf, Trulieve, and Cresco Labs. The company has high tenant concentration with a total of 30 tenants and receives approximately 76% of its ABR from its top 10 tenants. PharmaCann is the company’s largest tenant and makes up almost 16% of its ABR, followed by Ascend Wellness and Green Thumb, which make up roughly 10.4% and 7.6%, respectively. IIPR - IRSince its first full year of operations in 2017 the company has had an average AFFO growth rate of 36.65%. Much of this growth occurred in the first several years of the company’s existence with AFFO increasing by 208% in 2017, by 100% in 2018, and by 144% in 2019. Since that time AFFO growth has moderated to some extent with it increasing by 53% in 2020, by 33% in 2021, by 27% in 2022, and by 7% in 2023. AFFO is expected to remain flat over the next two years with no AFFO growth projected in 2024 or 2025. IIPR has paid consecutive quarterly dividends since the second quarter of 2017. During 2017 the company paid a dividend of $0.55 compared to the dividend paid in 2023 of $7.22 per share. In total, since 2017, the company has delivered a compound dividend growth rate of 53.60%. Similar to its AFFO growth rate, the average dividend growth rate is inflated due to the large increases in 2017, 2018, and 2019 when the dividend growth rate was 89.66%, 118.18%, and 135.83%, respectively. Since that time the dividend has continued to grow at a rapid clip, albeit at a slower pace. In 2020, 2021, and 2022 the company increased its dividend by 57.95%, 27.96%, and 24.13%, respectively. It should be noted however that the dividend was only increased by 1.69% last year. FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)The cannabis industry has seen significant growth in recent years due to the legalization of cannabis in a growing number of states. Additionally, there has been increasing consumer acceptance and demand for cannabis products. Currently, 41 states and the District of Columbia have legalized medical cannabis while 24 states and the District of Columbia have legalized cannabis for recreational use. Cannabis is still a nascent industry with enormous growth potential, but there's also high uncertainty due to the legal and regulatory environment. The stock pays a 7.08% dividend yield that's well covered with a 2023 AFFO payout ratio of 79.52% and trades at a P/AFFO of 11.34x, compared to its average AFFO multiple of 29.03x. We rate Innovative Industrial Properties a Spec Buy. FAST GraphsChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) Our first mortgage REIT today is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, which is a specialty finance company that's externally managed and specializes in the origination of senior secured loans to state-licensed cannabis operators. The company began operations in 2021 and currently has a market cap of approximately $276.2 million. REFI was formed to in order to provide capital that would otherwise be limited or unavailable to cannabis operators through traditional bank financing. REFI’s loans are typically secured by real estate and sometimes secured by additional collateral such as equipment, receivables, or other assets of the borrower. Additionally, the company looks to have personal guarantees on its loans and reported that 27.1% of its portfolio loans are backed by personal or corporate guarantees as of the end of 2023. Additionally, all of the company’s loans have prepayment penalties at origination and over half of its loan portfolio was still protected by prepayment penalties as of its most recent update. At the end of 2023, the company had total loan commitments of $378.8 million spread across 27 portfolio investments with a W.A. yield to maturity of roughly 19.4%, real estate collateral coverage of 1.5x, and a loan to enterprise value of 44.1%. Additionally, roughly 81% of the loans in its portfolio have a variable interest rate. REFI - IRUnlike equity REITs that generate revenues primarily through rental income, REFI’s revenues are made up from interest income on its loans. We have very little history to look at since the company is relatively new, but at the end of 2023 it reported net interest income of $57.2 million, compared to net interest income of $48.9 million in 2022, representing a 17% increase. Similarly, net income was reported at $38.7 million at the end of 2023, compared to net income of $32.3 million at the end of 2022, representing a 20% year-over-year increase. REFI - IROn a per share basis the company delivered positive earnings growth in both 2022 and 2023 and analyst expect adjusted operating earnings per share (“EPS”) to increase by 2% in both 2024 and 2025. The company also increased its quarterly dividend from $0.26 per share in 2021 to $0.47 per share as of its most recent payment. In addition to its regular quarterly dividend the company paid a special dividend of $0.29 in both 2022 and 2023. The company’s total dividend increased to $2.17 per share in 2023, representing a 3.33% increase from the dividend paid in 2022. The expected dividend in the chart below for both 2024 and 2025 does not appear to include the special dividend and looks like its is only counting the normal quarterly dividend (0.47 x 4 = 1.88). In both 2022 and 2023 the dividend was covered by REFI’s adjusted operating earnings with a dividend payout ratio of 100% in 2022 and 96.19% last year. FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)Currently the mortgage REIT pays a 11.97% dividend yield and trades at a P/E of 6.94x, compared to its normal P/E ratio of 8.56x. We rate Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance a Spec Buy. FAST GraphsAFC Gamma (AFCG) Our final company is an externally-managed mortgage REIT that started off with an exclusive focus on originating first lien loans, secured by mortgages, in order to provide financing to state-licensed cannabis operators. AFC Gamma was formed in 2020 and just a couple years later the company announced that it was “expanding” its investment criteria to include additional property types as well as subordinate loans. AFCG’s new investment guidelines now include first and second lien loans issued for other types of commercial real estate such as retail, office, industrial, and multifamily. Additionally through its expanded investment guidelines the company can invest in equity interests of non-cannabis related properties and invest in mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”). So in just a handful of years the company went from specializing in the cannabis industry and only originating first lien loans to issuing both first and second lien loans on a variety of property types, as well as owning real estate and investing in MBSs. To me it sounds less like expanded investment criteria and more like a complete business overhaul. To make matters just a bit more complicated, in February 2024, the company announced a spin-off of their commercial real estate (“CRE”) portfolio into an independent REIT named Sunrise Realty Trust (ticker: SUNS). AFCG will contribute all of the assets and liabilities related to its CRE lending business that's not related to its business of originating loans for state-licensed cannabis operators to create two separate credit providers in Cannabis and traditional CRE. After the spin-off, AFCG will once again be a pure-play cannabis mortgage REIT while SUNS will managed the portfolio of traditional CRE debt investments. AFCG - IRIn 2023 the company generated adjusted operating earnings of $2.04 per share, representing a -19% decline in earnings from 2022. Analysts expect EPS to fall by -1% in 2024 and then increase by 2% the following year. FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)In order to deal with the erosion of its earnings, the company cut its quarterly dividend from $0.56 to $0.48 per share in the second quarter of 2023, representing a -14.29% dividend cut from the prior rate. AFCG - IRTo me it seems that this company lacks a clear investment strategy. Whether it be from a lack of strategy or execution the company’s operating results have been poor, which inevitably led to a dividend cut about a year ago. The stock currently pays a 16.01% dividend yield but the company’s past operational performance leads me to believe that this is likely a sucker yield that could be cut again should earnings continue to deteriorate. Currently AFCG is trading at a P/E of 5.89x, compared to its normal P/E ratio of 8.16x. While this is a significant discount, this company is young, lacks clear direction, and has already had to cut its dividend just several years after its public listing. We do not currently have coverage on AFC Gamma, but it's our recommendation that investors Avoid this stock. FAST GraphsIn Closing I hope you enjoyed my cannabis conundrum article. I look forward to your feedback below, As always, thank you for the opportunity to be of service. Author's note: Brad Thomas is a Wall Street writer, which means he's not always right with his predictions or recommendations. Since that also applies to his grammar, please excuse any typos you may find. Also, this article is free: Written and distributed only to assist in research while providing a forum for second-level thinking.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2426200956"}