Gold Barrels Past $2,400 to a New High. There's Not Much Standing in Its Way, Say Analysts

Dow Jones04-12

Gold was squarely aimed at its 17th record high on Friday, with prices surging past the $2,400 level as investors continued to watch geopolitical tensions and prospects for U.S. interest rate cuts.

Gold futures for June delivery soared $42, or 1.7%, to $2,414 an ounce, just off intraday highs. Thursday marked the 16th record close of 2024, with the precious metal gaining $24.30, or 1%, to settle at $2,372.70 an ounce on Comex.

Based on the June contract, gold is up just over 14% year to date.

Silver, which has outpaced the strength of gold's gain so far this year, was up 93 cents, or 3.3% to $29.18 an ounce.

The rally for gold and silver that kicked off in early March has been driven by expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. As of late, investors have been focused reports that Iran is poised to attack Israel imminently. Iran blames Tel Aviv's government for the strike on a diplomatic building in Syria last week that killed an Iranian general.

That's as investors have been looking past U.S. data - strong jobs, higher-than-expected consumer prices - that has raised questions about how many interest rate cuts, if any, the Federal Reserve will deliver this year. Thursday's softer-than-forecast producer price numbers gave gold a boost.

"With only second-tier U.S. data due next week, the precious metal is unlikely to come under any major pressure for the time being," said Thu Lan Nguyen, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, in a note to clients.

When interest rates are falling, the cost of holding a nonyielding asset like gold also falls, increasing its appeal.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity at Saxo Bank, laid out some resistance levels for gold as $2,450, $2,500 and ultimately $2,645, based on technical charts.

"Strong momentum making it a dream market for hedge funds to chase, with the shallow correction making it easy to hold on, and extend existing longs," he said in comments to MarketWatch.

"Overall, the investment metal market is signaling a lot of concerns both about geopolitical and financial stability. Something the wider market has yet to buy into. Also given China's predicament, the risk of a managed devaluation of the CNY [Chinese yuan renminbi] probably also a fear that has got Chinese investors rushing into gold and silver," said Hansen.

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