Gold, oil drive global commodity open interest value towards 2022 highs - JPM

seekingalpha04-09

The estimated value of open interest across global commodity markets increased by 3.5% week-on-week (~$47 billion), to the highest level since June 2022 of $1.39 trillion, driven by significant price ...

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Contract-based inflows across all trader types continued for a fifth week, and reached a year-to-date high of $144 billion, primarily driven by strength in precious and base metals along with petroleum product markets, the bank said in a note dated April 8.  Cumulative flows across all commodity markets:   Image source: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research According to JPM economists, resilient growth and easing financial conditions boost the likelihood of a \"soft-landing\" by the U.S. Federal Reserve well into 2025, while sticky inflation raises the risk of fewer rate cuts. They now anticipate that the Fed’s easing cycle will commence in July, with 75bp of cuts projected by year-end. The estimated value of open interest in global precious metals markets increased by 7% week-on-week to $194 billion, as of Apr 5. Gold and silver led contract-based inflows which totalled $3.9 billion, reversed last week’s outflows. Gold futures racked up another record high settlement Monday, with momentum driven primarily by central bank purchases, as analysts expect further upside in the metal.  Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) gained +1.00% to $2,362.80 an ounce as of 6:03 am ET on Tuesday. JPM strategists highlight that in the near term a break below $2,150/oz in gold “will begin to trigger unwinds of length which could cascade into a sharper correction lower ultimately pushing prices to $2,050/oz.” The estimated open interest value of global base metals markets soared by 6.5% WOW to ~$190 billion, driven by buoyant copper led inflows of $3.7 billion. Meanwhile, the estimated value of open interest across energy markets increased by $22 billion WOW to $611 billion. The increase was primarily driven by strong positive price moves in crude oil and petroleum products. Brent crude (CO1:COM) last week settled above $90/bbl for the first time since October, as tensions in the Middle East threaten to boil over into a wider regional war.  Recent Commodity Price Movements and A look At Some ETFs  Energy  Crude oil (CL1:COM) -0.02% to $86.53. Natural Gas (NG1:COM) +0.41% to $1.86.  Metals  Palladium (XPDUSD:CUR) +0.57% to $1,061.00. Platinum (XPTUSD:CUR) +1.34% to $993.00. Gold (XAUUSD:CUR) +0.99% to $2,362.67.  Agriculture   Corn (C_1:COM) -0.08% to $434.65. Wheat (W_1:COM) -0.92% to $560.27.  Commodity ETFs  Gold ETFs:  SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU) Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares ETF (NUGT) Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)  Other Metal ETFs:  iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) U.S. Copper Index Fund, LP ETF (CPER) abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL)  Oil ETFs:  U.S. Oil Fund, LP ETF (USO) Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF (DBO) U.S. 12 Month Oil Fund, LP ETF (USL) U.S. Brent Oil Fund, LP ETF (BNO) U.S. Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF (UNG) U.S. Gasoline Fund, LP ETF (UGA)  Agriculture ETFs:  Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB) Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) Teucrium Corn Fund ETF (CORN)","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2426678831"}