Copper prices are soaring but there's plenty of upside left in the tank: Tribeca

LiveWire04-10

Copper prices are headed towards two-year highs amid a raft of tailwinds including constrained supply, record low inventories and growing demand from renewable sectors. The red metal has been trading ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2426765484?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-04-10 12:46","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2426765484","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Copper prices are soaring but there's plenty of upside left in the tank: Tribeca","media":"LiveWire","content":"<div>\n<p>Copper prices are headed towards two-year highs amid a raft of tailwinds including constrained supply, record low inventories and growing demand from renewable sectors.\nThe red metal has been trading ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/copper-prices-are-soaring-but-there-s-plenty-of-upside-left-in-the-tank-tribeca\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"livewire_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Copper prices are soaring but there's plenty of upside left in the tank: Tribeca</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCopper prices are soaring but there's plenty of upside left in the tank: Tribeca\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-10 12:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/copper-prices-are-soaring-but-there-s-plenty-of-upside-left-in-the-tank-tribeca><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Copper prices are headed towards two-year highs amid a raft of tailwinds including constrained supply, record low inventories and growing demand from renewable sectors.\nThe red metal has been trading ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/copper-prices-are-soaring-but-there-s-plenty-of-upside-left-in-the-tank-tribeca\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0056508442.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/copper-prices-are-soaring-but-there-s-plenty-of-upside-left-in-the-tank-tribeca","article_id":"2426765484","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/copper-prices-are-soaring-but-there-s-plenty-of-upside-left-in-the-tank-tribeca","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2426765484","pubTimestamp":1712724389,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Copper prices are headed towards two-year highs amid a raft of tailwinds including constrained supply, record low inventories and growing demand from renewable sectors.The red metal has been trading largely sideways since February 2021 because the slump in China's crucial property and construction sector, inflation, and rising interest rates have offset the above tailwinds.Copper futures are currently trading around US$4.3/lb, the highest since June 2022 and up more than 12% since March. The rally has brought life back into local copper stocks, which have spent the past three years grappling with surging costs and operational issues.Shares in the market’s largest pure-play copper exposure Sandfire Resources  have rallied almost 20% since March and trading at levels not seen since June 2018. The Global X Copper Miners ETF  – which might provide a more holistic view of the copper sector – is up 25% over the same period.Inflation issues from tight labour markets and higher energy prices h","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0075056555.USD":"贝莱德世界矿业基金A2","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU1992135399.USD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AT Acc USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","SFR.AU":"SANDFIRE RESOURCES LTD","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","TGF.AU":"TRIBECA GLOBAL NATURAL RESOU","BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD","LU0330918003.SGD":"Blackrock World Mining A2 SGD-H","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","TECK":"泰克资源有限公司","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4015":"铜","WIRE.AU":"GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","FCX":"麦克莫兰铜金","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD"},"translate_title":"铜价正在飙升，但仍有大量上涨空间：翠贝卡","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WIRE.AU":1,"BHP.AU":1,"FCX":1,"NVDA":1,"TECK":1,"SFR.AU":1,"TGF.AU":1},"content_text":"Copper prices are headed towards two-year highs amid a raft of tailwinds including constrained supply, record low inventories and growing demand from renewable sectors.\nThe red metal has been trading largely sideways since February 2021 because the slump in China's crucial property and construction sector, inflation, and rising interest rates have offset the above tailwinds.\nCopper futures are currently trading around US$4.3/lb, the highest since June 2022 and up more than 12% since March. The rally has brought life back into local copper stocks, which have spent the past three years grappling with surging costs and operational issues.\nShares in the market’s largest pure-play copper exposure Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR) have rallied almost 20% since March and trading at levels not seen since June 2018. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (ASX: WIRE) – which might provide a more holistic view of the copper sector – is up 25% over the same period.\nIf the past year or two has taught us anything about commodities, it’s that once prices start moving, they tend to run pretty hot. While copper remains exactly where it was three years ago, Michael Orphanides from Tribeca Investment Partners says the latest breakout marks the start of a multi-year rally.\nEverything you need to know about the copper rally\nWhy has copper only now begun to move, despite well-documented and long-standing bullish demand and supply issues?\nFor the past couple of years, copper bulls have been sticking to their guns, advocating the same thesis. Here are a few headlines from Bloomberg spanning this period. \n\n\nOctober 2021 – Global Copper Inventories Are Getting Critically Low\n\n\nJune 2022 – Copper May Be the Tightest Commodity Market Ever\n\n\nSeptember 2022 – Surging Copper Demand Will Complicate the Clean Energy Boom\n\n\nApril 2023 – Tightest Supply in 18 Years Boosts Copper Ahead of Industry Show\n\n\nDecember 2023 – The World’s Copper Supply Is Suddenly Looking Scarce\n\n\nJanuary 2024 – Copper Ready to Explode on Fed Rate Cut\n\n\nSo why has copper only now started to move out?\nOrphanides says ongoing disruptions in supply, stemming from operational, regulatory and inflationary challenges have been steadily mounting over the past 18 months. The recent issues surrounding Chinese smelters appear to be the match that has lit the fire.\nMore specifically, he attributes the rally to the following issues:\n\n\nLow inventories and stronger-than-expected global demand from electrification\n\nGlobal grades are getting lower and lower, and ore bodies are getting deeper and deeper, resulting in operating issues and production downgrades from major mines\n\nSocial license issues are becoming more of an issue in both emerging and developed economies. None more so than Cobre Panama which has cut approximately 2% of global copper production\n\nInflation issues from tight labour markets and higher energy prices have lifted production costs. Energy shortages in many emerging markets also resulted in reduced production e.g. Ivanhoe last week\n\nWhy is copper reaching a 52-week high while iron ore is nearing 52-week lows?\nThe year-to-date performance for copper (+11%) and iron ore (-22.5%) paint two dramatically different narratives for commodity markets.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCopper (red) vs. Iron ore (blue) year-to-date (Source: TradingView)\n“The current move is more about copper strength than iron ore weakness. An iron ore price above US$100 a tonne is still a strong price for the industry. Copper’s current production issues have been felt in iron ore markets for many years, leading to significantly higher average prices over the past five years compared to initial forecasts,” says Orphanides.\n“These production issues are not transitory, they are very sticky and like the iron ore market, copper prices will need to rise substantially beyond current spot prices to incentivise production.”\nCopper inventories have been grinding lower for the past couple of years. Could this ever result in an abrupt squeeze in copper prices?\n\"We think one of the better indicators for future copper price direction is treatment charges which have tightened significantly year to date. This tightening highlights a strong physical market that major producers such as Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX) and Glencore (LON: GLEN) have been emphasising for the past 12 months,\"  says Orphanides.\nAI has emerged as another demand growth driver for copper. How will this impact future copper demand?\nCopper remains one of the largest exposures to Tribeca's Global Natural Resources Fund, with more than 40% of net long positions to various global producers and developers. The fund recently published a copper note that expects a growing deficit through 2030 and beyond.\n\nSource: Tribeca\n\"Using the popular metric that 1GW of data centre capacity will require between 40-60kt of copper, we estimate that data centre expansions in the United States alone will add approximately 2% to copper demand in 2024,\" the report said.\n\"If you use Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)'s assumption on AI demand for 2030, it implies we could eventually be at a level where data centres require an additional ~10% of copper demand to that currently forecasted.\"\nWhy isn’t copper trading at >US$5.0 given all the above?\nCopper is currently trading exactly where it was three years ago. To add some perspective, BHP's (ASX: BHP) Escondida has seen unit costs soar from US$1.00/lb in FY21 to US$1.51/lb in the first-half of FY24. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCopper futures chart (Source: TradingView)\n\nOrphanides expects copper prices to rise above the US$5 level in the coming months and potentially much higher given the incentive price needed for greenfield projects. \n\"All of the operational, regulatory and inflationary cost issues plaguing the copper sector has pushed the incentive price to US$5/lb, if not closer to US$6/lb.\"\nWhat are your favourite copper picks right now and why?\n\"Globally we like Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX), Teck Resources (NYSE: TECK) and Glencore (LON: GLEN), which should remain the go-to names for global asset allocators, are catalyst rich and whose valuations are undemanding,\" he says. \nLearn more\nTribeca’s global natural resources investment team is one of the largest in the Asia Pacific region, with decades of deep investment and technical expertise. The team manage several specialised, actively managed strategies investing across metals & mining, energy, soft commodities and carbon markets, leveraging Tribeca’s unique position as a preferred capital partner to companies in the resources sector.\n\n\n\nManaged Fund\nTribeca Global Natural Resources Strategy\nAlternative Assets\n\n\nView\n\n\n\n\n\n\nLIC\nTribeca Global Natural Resources Limited (TGF)\nGlobal Shares\n\n\nView\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2426765484"}