Peabody Energy Stock: Why I Believe It's A Strong Buy, Despite Bad Guidance

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Natural gas has gained ground over coal as a cleaner source of energy, leading to a decline in coal's market share.Natural gas prices are so low in certain areas of the U.S. that producers are paying ...

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In West Texas producers are paying to have shippers to take their gas. Prices at the region's Waha hub have been below zero in several trade sessions since March, a sign that supply is sharply outpacing demand and pipeline capacity. As one can imagine, this makes it extremely tough for coal to catch a break. In January, the Wall Street Journal wrote: \"Oil Prices Are Up. Coal Won't Be So Lucky\" :  In short, the optimal conditions that prevailed for coal prices in 2022—bad weather tripping up coal production down under and a mad scramble for energy supplies in Europe—have reversed. Add in well-stocked power plants and weak growth in China, and record-high production, and the picture looks darker still.  They were right, as the chart below shows. The chart compares Newcastle Coal futures (my favorite international coal pric","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","CHK.AU":"COHIBA MINERALS LTD","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK6027":"贸易公司与经销商","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0031619046.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK7062":"资产管理与托管银行","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","CHK":"切萨皮克能源","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","IE00B7SZL793.SGD":"Legg Mason Royce - US Small Cap Opportunity A Acc SGD-H","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","BTU":"Peabody","WMT":"沃尔玛","EQT":"EQT能源","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0006061336.USD":"Blackrock US Small and MidCap Opportunities A2 USD","EQT.AU":"EQT Holdings Ltd","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","IE00B66KJ199.SGD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY  \" A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4156":"煤与消费用燃料","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00B19Z4B17.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK6522":"化石燃料股","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","QSD.SI":"Resources Gbl","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"translate_title":"皮博迪能源股票：为什么我认为这是一个强大的购买，尽管糟糕的指导","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":1,"EQT.AU":1,"EQT":1,"CHK.AU":1,"CHK":1,"BTU":1,"QSD.SI":0.9},"content_text":"Natural gas has gained ground over coal as a cleaner source of energy, leading to a decline in coal's market share.Natural gas prices are so low in certain areas of the U.S. that producers are paying to have shippers take their gas.Peabody Energy, a coal company, issued poor guidance for its first-quarter revenue due to operational headwinds and competition from natural gas.However, BTU remains in a great spot to benefit from what could be a strong long-term coal bull case.   Monty Rakusen (A Lengthy) Introduction  FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid (soccer). Manchester United vs. Liverpool (soccer) India vs. Pakistan (cricket) Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees (baseball) Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics (basketball).  Above, I listed some of the world's biggest rivalries. If you're into sports, odds are you are familiar with at least some of these. Another (non-sports) rivalry is coal versus natural gas. Both are very abundant commodities that play major roles in global energy security. In fact, one could make the case that our current prosperity is built on coal, the commodity that fueled the industrial revolution. Unfortunately, for coal, natural gas has gained ground, as it is a cleaner source of energy that tremendously benefitted from the shale revolution in the U.S. As we can see below, in 2007, the U.S. produced roughly 6 billion cubic feet of dry shale gas per day. That number is currently close to 80 billion cf per day!   Energy Information Administration Using the chart below, we see that Henry Hub (natural gas futures) traded close to $7 per MMBtu before the shale revolution gained steam. After that, it consistently traded below $3 per MMBtu. TradingView (NYMEX Henry Hub) While it was a big issue for natural gas producers, it made the transition away from coal so much easier. As of 2022, 36% of the primary energy production in the United States comes from natural gas. Coal accounted for 12%. Energy Information Administration In the year 2000, coal had a bigger share than natural gas! Even worse, natural gas is now so cheap in certain areas of the U.S. that producers are paying to get rid of their gas. In West Texas producers are paying to have shippers to take their gas. Prices at the region's Waha hub have been below zero in several trade sessions since March, a sign that supply is sharply outpacing demand and pipeline capacity. As one can imagine, this makes it extremely tough for coal to catch a break. In January, the Wall Street Journal wrote: \"Oil Prices Are Up. Coal Won't Be So Lucky\" (emphasis added):  In short, the optimal conditions that prevailed for coal prices in 2022—bad weather tripping up coal production down under and a mad scramble for energy supplies in Europe—have reversed. Add in well-stocked power plants and weak growth in China, and record-high production, and the picture looks darker still.  They were right, as the chart below shows. The chart compares Newcastle Coal futures (my favorite international coal price benchmark) to the price of Brent oil. The coal chart is logarithmic, as it has had a very volatile past. TradingView (Newcastle Coal, ICE Brent) Oil prices are up, coal prices are not. All of this brings me to the star of this article, Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU). My most recent article on this company was written on November 16, when I went with the title \"Coal Isn't Dead! I'm Bullish On Peabody Energy.\"  Since then, BTU is up 1.5%. I'm happy with that, especially in light of the decline in natural gas prices. The reason I'm writing an update is the just-released news that the company's 1Q24 guidance was poor. As reported by Seeking Alpha, it caused the stock to briefly decline 9% after the news. In light of this extremely long introduction and this news, I'll use the rest of this article to explain why I remain bullish on Peabody despite natural gas price headwinds and poor guidance. So, let's get to it! Why Peabody Energy's Bad Guidance Wasn't Bearish Going back to the Seeking Alpha news, Peabody Energy issued poor guidance for its first-quarter revenue. The company expects first-quarter revenue of $980 million and adjusted EBITDA of $160 million. The company reported that sales volumes were \"largely in line with expectations\" for its seaborne segment. The U.S. thermal segment reported lower-than-expected shipments. According to the company (emphasis added): First quarter results were impacted by the following factors: 1) unfavorable seaborne thermal coal mix as a result of lower production at Wambo due to an extended longwall ramp-up offset by additional production of lower quality coal at Wilpinjong; 2) lower average realized prices in the seaborne metallurgical coal segment due to HVA and PCI to HCC price relativities significantly below historical levels and mining of lower quality coal at the CMJV; 3) higher than anticipated costs at the CMJV from an unplanned dragline outage and the acceleration of planned coal prep plant repairs; 4) lower U.S. thermal volumes due to unseasonably warm weather and continued low natural gas prices; and 5) an approximate $18 million non-cash remeasurement of AUD denominated monetary assets. One big problem was operational headwinds. These are difficult to predict and usually don't pressure a stock price very long - unless it's so severe that it will impact production on a prolonged basis. What matters to me here is that the company mentioned two critical developments - that are somewhat related.  Subdued prices (which is why I wrote such a long introduction). Lower volumes due to warm weather and competition from natural gas.  With that in mind, the market quickly disregarded this news, as the company's stock price recovered within a few hours! Data by YCharts Especially in light of massive natural gas headwinds, I believe the market is betting on a bigger turnaround. I thoroughly agree with that. There are a few tailwinds that make me believe coal might soon catch up with oil prices.  Natural gas producers are doing what they usually do at market bottoms: they cut output. Both Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and EQT Corp. (EQT) - two of the biggest in the business - have recently announced output cuts. Coal demand is strong. Even in this environment, China is importing more coal than expected. This is surprising, as the nation is struggling with economic challenges. It makes me believe that demand has much more room to rise if Chinese economic growth continues to rebound.   The robust growth in imports contrasts with the downbeat assessment of China's coal sector at an industry conference in Xiamen last month, where the consensus of views was that imports will remain flat, or even decline in 2024. China imported a record 474.42 million tons of coal in 2023 and the consensus of forecasts is for arrivals this year to be in a range between 450 and 500 million tons. Official customs data for the first two months of 2024 showed total coal imports of 74.52 million tons, up 23% from the corresponding period a year earlier. - Reuters.  In fact, a whole range of commodities is already reacting to the rebound in Chinese growth. Financial Times Even better (for coal, not the environment), we are not at \"peak coal,\" as the global coal plant capacity is expected to rise. At the end of last year, China had 400 gigawatts of coal power capacity in development. That's up from 200 gigawatts in 2019. While the rest of the world has seen a steady decline for more than a decade, it still has close to 200 gigawatts under construction. GIS Reports At this point, the most realistic scenario is a very slow phase-out of coal, which could take decades and provide coal producers with significant tailwinds - even the ones based in the U.S. because they benefit from international pricing and export opportunities. In a more likely scenario, the global phaseout of coal will take place over a longer period, with different speeds between Western/OECD countries and Asia. This is especially true for China and India, which will opt for “clean coal” projects and those including carbon capture/storage technologies to decrease carbon emissions while still using coal. - GIS Reports. Peabody agrees, as it sees a very steep increase in seaborne metallurgical coal demand through 2050 - mainly driven by India. This is very bullish. Peabody Energy Going back to the price of Newcastle coal, we need to be aware that it's trading north of $130 per ton. Despite the massive decline from the 2022 peak, it is still trading close to 2018 peak levels. Not even weak natural gas prices and regional demand declines could push coal lower. TradingView (Newcastle Coal) I believe the pandemic has triggered a structural change in the coal market. Yes, it's a \"dying\" commodity. However, its decline is so slow that there are enough opportunities for miners. Even better, because of the (somewhat forced) energy transition, supply is unlikely to keep up with demand. In other words, we have created a scenario where new supply is unlikely to meet rising demand. The chart below visualizes this very well, as we can see that the total coal supply, including all possible new coal mines, is unable to cover close to 300 million tons in annual demand in 2035. Peabody Energy Even if the actual number is lower, it's still bullish for prices. This puts BTU in a great spot, as it is the largest producer in the Powder River Basin, where it has access to low-cost coal reserves. It allowed the company to grow adjusted EBITDA by 20% over the past three years - despite lower volumes. Shareholder Value & BTU Stock Valuation Because of the new operating environment, BTU has become a source of aggressive buybacks. Last year, the company generated $724 million in free cash flow. That's 24% of its market cap! As a result, it spent $471 million on shareholder distributions, most of it through buybacks. It bought back 11% of its shares. Data by YCharts These aggressive buybacks are possible because a healthy balance sheet allows the company to prioritize shareholder returns over debt reduction. As we can see below, it has repaid all senior secured debt and more than $1 billion in liquidity. Peabody Energy Depending on the price of coal, BTU should be in a good spot to buy back 10-15% of its market cap in an environment of $130-$150 per ton coal prices (Newcastle). With that in mind, putting a valuation on BTU is hard - very hard. After all, coal companies are extremely dependent on the price of coal. A blue-chip like Walmart (WMT) is much easier to give a valuation, as growth is much more predictable (pricing, population growth, secular growth in e-commerce, etc.). As we can see below, BTU trades at a blended P/OCF (operating cash flow) ratio of just 2.4x. Its normalized P/OCF ratio is 1.7x. (for oil companies, that number is somewhere between 7-10x). Moreover, analysts expect a 49% lower OCF this year, potentially followed by another 23% decline in 2025. FAST Graphs Even if we were to give the stock a 5x OCF multiple, it would trade at fair value. On a side note, I believe the stock should not trade below 5x OCF, especially if coal prices move up again. That said, these expected OCF declines need to be taken with a grain of salt. Analysts are (often) not willing to incorporate a bullish coal thesis, as it would require them to make an active directional bet instead of just assessing the most likely path forward. Based on the history of these coal companies, that's down. However, given my view on coal, I remain bullish. Hence, I stick to what I wrote in my prior article.  I believe that the company's 2024 and 2025 actual results will be higher than expected. While we'll likely see results below 2022 levels due to that year being very unusual, I expect that BTU benefits from slowly bottoming coal prices with more upside if rising natural gas prices give coal a bigger boost. If my thesis is correct, I would expect BTU to break its 2022 highs in 2024, followed by an uptrend to $40.  Nonetheless, as I wrote back then, this thesis requires a natural gas price recovery. Also, please be aware that coal stocks are among the most volatile assets on the planet. As bullish as I am on coal, I mainly focus on oil and gas investments. Do not touch coal stocks unless you're aware of the risks. If I'm right, BTU could fly much higher than $40. However, it could come with severe volatility. Takeaway Despite facing headwinds from shifting market dynamics, Peabody Energy remains a compelling investment opportunity. Operational challenges and subdued prices have momentarily dampened expectations, but underlying factors suggest a potential turnaround. With growing demand in key markets like India and structural shifts in the coal market, BTU stands to benefit from strategic positioning and aggressive buybacks. Pros & Cons Pros:   Strategic Positioning: BTU has a dominant position in the Powder River Basin, boasting access to low-cost coal reserves.  Aggressive Buybacks: With a healthy balance sheet and robust free cash flow generation, BTU has shown a commitment to improving shareholder value returns.  Potential for Upside: Despite near-term challenges, underlying factors such as growing demand in key markets like India and structural shifts in the coal market suggest a sustainable uptrend in coal demand and prices.   Cons:   Market Volatility: Coal stocks, including BTU, are very volatile.  Dependency on Coal Prices: The performance of BTU is highly dependent on the price of coal, making it prone to fluctuations in commodity markets.  Industry Headwinds: Despite potential opportunities, the coal industry faces headwinds, such as competition from alternative energy sources.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2426782157"}