Here It Is! My 20-Stock 6-Figure Market-Beating Dividend Portfolio

seekingalpha04-12

In this article, I share my 20-stock dividend growth portfolio, which I haven't done for more than a year. It contains close to 95% of my net worth.I start with a macroeconomic discussion, which ...

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It contains close to 95% of my net worth.I start with a macroeconomic discussion, which includes my strategy and my view on inflation.At the end of the article, I share my performance and explain why I expect to outperform the market by an even wider margin in the years ahead.   Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Let me start this article by saying that it was about time I published this article. I have promised to write an update on my portfolio for a very long time. My most recent update was written more than a year ago. Essentially, there are a few reasons why I don't write many \"my portfolio\" articles. One of them is the fact that I'm not very active when it comes to adding new investments. Some people on here have >50 investments. They often sell investments and add new ones. That's fine. However, it's not my strategy. I own \"just\" 20 individual stocks. Most of my transactions are transactions where I buy more of the stocks that I own. Moreover, I often discuss my investments and strategy in macro and strategy-focused articles. This includes the comment section. That way, I always try to give people an understanding of what I'm thinking of the market and where I put my money. Finally, I'm a \"big picture\" guy. Whenever I write an article, I need to cover major macro, geopolitical, or supply chain developments. It's part of the framework I use to find long-term investments with significant benefits. Leo Nelissen (Investment Framework) Hence, in this article, I'll present my portfolio in light of the biggest macro theme I'm covering: inflation. I'll show you the stocks I own, why I'm outperforming the market again, and why I expect that to continue. So, let's get to it! A Quick Title Explanation However, before we continue, I have to explain why I put \"6-figure\" in the title. As I noted in last year's article, it's not to brag. After all, it's hardly something to brag about. I put it in the title to show how serious I am about this. I have invested close to 95% of my net worth in my dividend portfolio. While it's not yet seven figures, it's enough to let me retire in plenty of cheaper nations. It's also enough to make a difference. When I was 15 and started trading, I made horrible mistakes. Overall, it was a fun learning experience. Making mistakes when I was younger was the best thing that could have happened to me. Now, we're beyond that point. I have enough money to make a difference in my life, and I have the honor of sharing my journey with hundreds of thousands of people. Hence, there's simply no room for error. While I will pick bad stocks in the future (we're all human), I have to be meticulous when I put serious money to work and when I share my findings. That's why I take my job so incredibly seriously. This includes the \"big picture.\" Higher For Longer It Is (Macro Matters) I always discuss the \"big picture,\" as it has become the core of my research. When I put money to work, I have a \"never sell\" mindset. Technically, that means buying companies that will withstand any recession imaginable. One could make the case that it also takes away the need to time an entry. To some extent, that makes sense. However, I use my big-picture view to get a good understanding of the environment we're in. This includes economic growth, inflation, geopolitical developments (wars, major elections, etc.), supply chain developments (re-shoring, energy flows, trade), and other secular trends (the end of the shale revolution, artificial intelligence, and others). Since the pandemic, I'm all about inflation. Although I completely missed the tech rally that started last year, I have been right about a few major things that mattered more:  In 2020, I expected inflation to become an issue after lockdowns ended and central banks were still easing. In 2021, that's precisely what happened. I'm glad (ignoring the negative impact of inflation) it did because my first job depended on it. When central banks started to make the case for \"transitory\" inflation, I remained in the \"higher for longer\" camp, expecting above-average inflation on a long-term basis.  The reason all of this matters is that inflation influences central bank decisions, consumer spending, and pretty much every aspect of our lives. It also impacts markets. Currently, the market is lofty valued. Going into this month, the S&P 500 (SP500) traded at 21x earnings. That's 1.3x its long-term standard deviation. JPMorgan This does not indicate the high likelihood of a big crash. However, it does indicate that future returns could be poor. Looking at the data below, we see that once the S&P 500 starts to trade at more than 20-23x earnings, the (expected) five-year annual return drops to zero. JPMorgan Essentially, this means that a bigger part of the expected total return (capital gains plus dividends) in the next few years will come from dividends. Moreover, if I'm right about inflation remaining elevated, we could likely see outperforming returns from value stocks. As we can see below, value stocks are extremely attractive compared to growth stocks, especially after the tech rally since last year caused them to underperform again. JPMorgan In other words, as you will see in the second part of my article, I have shifted most of my money to value stocks, which I define as companies with strong earnings power, attractive valuations, and the potential to distribute most of their cash to shareholders. However, before we get to my stocks, I need to discuss the latest inflation numbers, which (unfortunately) confirm my higher-for-longer thesis. I'm saying \"unfortunately\" because I'm apprehensive about what this means for the consumer and the economy as a whole. Not only did inflation come in higher than expected for the fourth-consecutive quarter, but it also started to increase again, with all-item inflation coming in at 3.5%. Most of this is driven by core services, which have been sticky since the second half of last year. Bloomberg Even energy is now part of the upswing again, as rising crude oil prices (see the chart below) have a forceful impact on inflation. TradingView (U.S. All-Item Y/Y Inflation, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil) As most of my readers know, energy is another topic I cannot stop talking about, as it is a big part of my inflation thesis, driven by the end of the shale revolution. I expect this to have a long-term inflationary impact on the economy. Besides that, I consider energy stocks to be fantastic value investments! Going back to inflation, Bloomberg noted that even one of the Fed's favorite indicators (super-core inflation) is accelerating. Bloomberg Even worse, according to the Atlanta Fed's data, sticky prices are accelerating again, making it even harder to get inflation down in the quarters ahead. Bloomberg Looking at the chart below, we see the five-year breakeven inflation rate. This is a market-based indicator that measures the expected average inflation over the next five years. I added two lines. The first one shows the subdued inflation between the Great Financial Crisis and 2021. This was fueled by globalization (emerging markets like China exporting cheap goods), the U.S. shale oil/gas boom, low rates, and more favorable labor market dynamics. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Now, all of this is changing. We're seeing deglobalization, supply chain reconfigurations, the end of the U.S. shale boom (why I'm so bullish on energy prices), sticky inflation, and elevated rates. While I'm not even going to attempt to predict the exact inflation rates for 2024, 2025, or any month or quarter, my thesis is that inflation is here to stay. We won't get hyperinflation, but I would not bet against prolonged inflation above the Fed's 2% inflation targets. Moreover, the U.S. is dealing with a major debt issue, which makes it likely that it will prefer to \"inflate its way out\" of \"this mess,\" as I discussed in this article. My Portfolio & New Investments With all of this in mind, let's finally take a look at my stocks.    Company Weighting Sector   Texas Pacific Land (TPL) 11.6% Energy   Lockheed Martin (LMT) 6.7% Industrials   Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) 6.5% Energy   Antero Midstream (AM) 6.2% Energy   RTX (RTX) 5.8% Industrials   CME Group Inc. (CME) 5.3% Financial   Carlisle Companies (CSL) 5.3% Industrials   Union Pacific (UNP) 4.8% Industrials   L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX) 4.8% Industrials   Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) 4.7% REITs   Danaher (DHR) 4.6% Healthcare   Northrop Grumman (NOC) 4.6% Industrials   Norfolk Southern (NSC) 4.4% Industrials   $Public Storage(PSA-N)$ (PSA) 4.1% REITs   The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) 3.8% Consumer Cyclical   AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) 3.7% Healthcare   PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) 3.7% Consumer Defensive   Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) 3.5% Industrials   Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) 3.4% Industrials   Deere & Company (DE) 2.8% Industrials   Click to enlarge As one can see, a few things stand out. I own just 20 stocks. Although I cover a huge variety of stocks, I keep my own portfolio very concentrated. That's not because I don't trust my own research, but because I believe it's better to have a few high-conviction investments than to own every \"good\" stock on the market. Let's assume I own 50 stocks instead of 20. Some would have such a low weighting that it doesn't really matter what happens to their stock price. If I have just a few grand in a stock, it matters just as much to be as a stock I don't own. That's how my brain works. Sure, it would look better on the outside, but it wouldn't benefit me or my readers. That said, I'm looking to expand to 25 stocks, as I have a great watch list that contains many of the stocks I discuss regularly on Seeking Alpha. The second point is that my portfolio is not as diversified as the S&P 500. The overview below shows the S&P 500 breakdown. As we can see, it has close to 30% information technology exposure. Energy accounts for just 4% of the index. State Street Here's my overview: Leo Nelissen Yes, you saw that correctly. 70% of my portfolio consists of industrials and energy. That's close to 70% of my entire net worth in two sectors. However, before you stop reading because you think I'm crazy, allow me to elaborate. It's not nearly as crazy as you may think. For starters, when looking at my industry breakdown, it's less bad (yet still concentrated). Leo Nelissen When it comes to my industrial exposure, half of it consists of defense contractors. These companies are anti-cyclical, as their demand mainly depends on government contracts. My most cyclical investment in this area is RTX, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies. This company has roughly 50% commercial aerospace exposure. Commercial demand is strong, and it benefits from strong secular growth. Data by YCharts I also have significant railroad exposure. While these companies are cyclical, they have wide-moat businesses, which lowers risks tremendously. On top of that, I have building materials exposure and commodity exposure through Caterpillar and Deere & Company, which I consider two of the best stocks for dividend growth in commodity-focused industries. Data by YCharts Moving over to energy, I own three energy stocks in my dividend portfolio: Texas Pacific Land. This is my largest investment. In fact, on April 10, I expanded my position by 50%. I deployed most of my cash, as I believe it is one of the best stocks to defeat inflation and consistently grow wealth. See, TPL may be an energy stock. However, it does not produce oil and gas. It owns the land and makes money through royalties on oil, gas, and water. On top of that, it makes money on other activities, including pipelines, solar, and every other activity on its valuable Permian land. This gives the stock a market-beating business model with elevated margins. It's not at all a typical energy stock and a holding in every family portfolio that I indirectly manage. Texas Pacific Land Corporation  Antero Midstream. This company owns the midstream assets (pipeline and processing facilities) of Antero Resources (AR). This company is an energy stock that is not directly dependent on the price of natural gas. It mainly depends on throughput. As I'm very bullish on the price and supply of natural gas, this is a perfect high-yield fit for my portfolio. Again, with a great risk/reward, as it's not a typical energy stock. Canadian Natural Resources. CNQ is a Canada-based oil and gas producer. Its benefits are deep reserves, low decline rates due to a focus on oil sands, low breakeven prices, and the goal to distribute 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through (special) dividends and buybacks.  Data by YCharts In fact, I spent most of my cash this year buying CNQ, AM, and TPL because I'm bullish on energy and value stocks. I sold Duke Energy (DUK) in January. The proceeds went into Antero Midstream. My remaining exposure enjoys strong diversification. Going forward, I'm looking to significantly boost my healthcare exposure by adding new companies. Earlier this year, I aggressively added to Danaher, which supplies biotech and life science companies with tools and supplies to innovate. This is one of my few growth-focused companies. As I love the anti-cyclical and often low-volatility nature of healthcare, I want to make this my third major investment sector. Regarding the dividend, I have a gross yield of 2.9%, which is within my target range of 2.5-3.0%. As I currently live in The Netherlands, my net yield is 15% (dividend tax) lower at 2.5%. These dividends EXCLUDE special dividends, which could be juicy, as CNQ, CME, and TPL are known for their focus on special dividends. 44% of my regular dividends come from energy, followed by 26% from industrials and 18% from real estate. Leo Nelissen Real estate is currently one of my worst investments. That's not unexpected, as elevated rates are tough on real estate companies that previously enjoyed low rates to fuel often aggressive growth. While I have various real estate investment trusts, or REITs, on my watch list, I own just two REITs. Both are self-storage operators, which is an industry I love due to flexible pricing, secular growth demand, and the fact that I believe that both Extra Space Storage and Public Storage are some of the best-managed REITs on the planet. Data by YCharts Although I expect to see some weakness if the Fed has to keep rates higher for longer, I actually look forward to potentially buying more of these two stocks at lower prices. On a side note, I sometimes joke with my friends that we have a win-win strategy. If our stocks rise, we make money (we win). If our stocks go down, we get to buy more stock of some of the world's best companies (we win again). You need to take this with a grain of salt, as it puts tremendous emphasis on our ability to pick the right stocks - especially as I own just 20 individual dividend stocks. My Performance When it comes to measuring my performance, I have to say that I use some very basic tools. While some monitor every aspect of their portfolio, I keep it elementary - some may say I keep it too simple. I keep it simple because I believe it helps us to avoid mistakes. Too many people try to monitor everything. I just want to own good companies and add to them regularly. That way, I can put my entire energy into research instead of wasting my days building fancy charts and tables. Essentially, I have a few basic Excel files.  One shows my portfolio (returns, sector, industry, yield, etc.) One shows my performance versus the S&P 500.  However, my performance versus the S&P 500 does not incorporate the timing of my investments. The chart I'm about to show you shows my portfolio based on my current share count only. In other words, the chart assumes that I owned every single stock I own now right from the beginning.  The advantage of this is that it shows how well my stocks (in general) have performed over the years. The disadvantage is that it does not give me credit for buying stocks at the right moment. If we assume that I bought a stock very cheaply after a strong correction, the chart assumes I owned it before the correction.  For example, I bought Exxon Mobil (XOM) at roughly $30 during COVID. While I do not own it anymore (I sold it to buy CNQ), my data always made it look like I owned it before the pandemic as well. That said, here's my portfolio. Leo Nelissen Since the end of 2020, it has returned roughly 50% EXCLUDING dividends. My own performance during this period was better, as I bought XOM at the lows and sold it at the highs. I also got AM, CNQ, and various other stocks at extremely attractive prices. For example, last year, I bought a ton of LHX and RTX close to the bottom, as some readers may remember (I was pounding the table very hard when LHX and RTX sold off). What matters here is that even excluding dividends, my stocks outperformed the market during this period - despite me being massively overweight in value investments. As we can see below, I more or less underperformed the S&P 500 since the end of 2022 after crushing the market in 2020 and 2021. Now, it looks like my portfolio is gaining momentum, boosted by what, I believe, will be a long-term rotation from growth to value stocks. Leo Nelissen Since January 2018, my portfolio (which I started to buy in 2020) has returned 18.2%, including dividends. This outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 40 basis points per year. Portfolio Visualizer Going forward, I expect my portfolio to keep outperforming the market at an even stronger pace, as I believe in a bigger emphasis on value stocks, prolonged above-average inflation, and a great performance of energy and industrials. Some Closing Words As I have written almost 3,000 words, I'm going to end this article here. Needless to say, going forward, I will continue to shed light on my portfolio, as there are so many other things we have to discuss. I will also make sure to update my portfolio more regularly (it won't take another year before you get another update). If you have any questions, please use the comment section to ask anything you want to know. I will try to answer as many questions as possible. And, as always, I would like to thank everyone for their support. Without my many followers, I would not be able to write for Seeking Alpha so consistently and enjoy countless discussions that bring so much value to the table for all readers.  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